The counting of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt is progressing without altering for now the earthquake that the first estimates showed. The official count has already reached 32%, with 867 of the 2,660 electoral districts counted by the electoral administration of the Land.
The second Hochrechnung from ARD/Infratest dimap, which already incorporates real results in addition to the exit poll, places AfD at 44.4%. The CDU continues to collapse at 18.4%, practically half of the 37.1% with which it won the 2021 elections.
AfD remains three seats away from an absolute majority
The projection keeps AfD at 39 deputies. To control the Landtag alone, it needs 42. Ulrich Siegmund's party is therefore still three seats below the absolute majority. The situation remains open because the final distribution also depends on how many parties surpass the 5% threshold.
The second Hochrechnung thus leaves the result:
- AfD: 44.4%
- CDU: 18.4%
- Die Linke: 9.3%
- Greens: 8.7%
- SPD: 8.4%
- BSW: 5.0%
- FDP: 2.2%
BSW is exactly on the border that allows entry into Parliament. It is one of the data points that can most alter the final distribution in the coming hours.
The real count confirms for now the snapshot from 18:00
The transition from the first projection to the Hochrechnungen is relevant. At 18:00, the figures were mainly from interviews conducted with voters as they left the polling stations. The successive Hochrechnungen incorporate real results from the tables that have already finished counting.
And for now, there is hardly any movement. AfD started the night at 44.5% and now appears at 44.4%. The CDU goes from 18.5% to 18.4%. Die Linke is at 9.3%, the Greens at 8.7%, and the SPD at 8.4%.
AfD mobilizes 157,000 former abstainers
The first data on vote transfer also helps explain AfD's jump.
According to Infratest dimap, the party would have captured around 157,000 voters who did not vote in the 2021 regional elections. It is, by far, its largest growth pool.
AfD would have also gained about 83,000 votes directly from the CDU. To this, 19,000 former FDP voters, 11,000 from Die Linke, 7,000 from the SPD, and about 35,000 from other parties are added. These are still provisional estimates of electoral transfer.
The data helps to understand two simultaneous phenomena of the night: the extraordinary mobilization of the electorate and the Christian Democratic collapse.
Participation skyrockets to 76.5%
The provisional participation stands at 76.5%, compared to 60.3% recorded in 2021. That is 16.2 points more.
ARD analyses indicate that AfD has been the main beneficiary from the turnout of former abstainers. Siegmund's party has not only grown by taking votes from other forces, but by incorporating a very high number of voters who did not participate five years ago.
Siegmund rejects governing in a minority
The uncertainty over the absolute majority has already caused a first significant movement from AfD. Ulrich Siegmund has ruled out leading a minority government on ZDF if he ultimately does not reach 42 deputies. The candidate asserts that he does not consider that formula and points out that AfD would be open to a coalition with any party willing to change migration and energy policies, although he states that he currently sees no available partner.
The position introduces pressure in the subsequent negotiation. AfD could win by more than 25 points and still end up without an immediate path to government.
BSW accepts concrete agreements with AfD, but will not vote for Siegmund
The position of BSW has clarified overnight. Its candidate, Claudia Wittig, has stated that she can imagine agreements with AfD for certain projects. But she has ruled out voting for both Ulrich Siegmund and the CDU candidate, Sven Schulze, as minister president.
Wittig proposes instead an independent head of government from the parties who can seek different majorities for each initiative.
Die Linke maintains the opposing position. Its leadership has rejected the possibility of variable parliamentary majorities alongside AfD.
CDU's defeat already opens an internal crisis
The magnitude of CDU's fall is causing consequences even before the counting is finished. The Junge Union of Saxony-Anhalt has demanded the resignation of the entire regional leadership of the party. It considers that the responsibility for the result lies with the entire leadership and calls for a complete renewal.
The former regional education minister Eva Feußner has gone in the same direction and has directly called for Sven Schulze's resignation as regional president of the CDU. She also rejects any cooperation with Die Linke.
Schulze, for his part, has congratulated AfD on the victory and has acknowledged that he expected a better result for his party.
FDP loses Parliament and its leader announces his departure
The FDP appears at only 2.2% and is clearly below the threshold of 5%.
Its regional leader, Lydia Hüskens, has already announced that she will leave the position and has taken political responsibility for the result. The FDP was part of the outgoing Government along with CDU and SPD.
The Greens are experiencing the opposite situation. With around 8.7%, they are heading towards the best result in their history in Saxony-Anhalt, although their leaders have focused their first statements on the advance of AfD.