The PNV maintains that it has a "very solid floor" among its voters, since the vote estimate "in absolute terms is very similar" to that obtained in the last general elections, according to the Basque sociometer. EH Bildu, for its part, states that it will "grow" in the next elections thanks to "having maintained a responsible, coherent and predictable position".
At the same time, the PSE-EE warns that there is "quite a bit of cooking" in the preparation of the sociometer because "in 2023 it told us that we were going to be the third force" in Euskadi "and the PSE-EE was the first". The PP perceives a "good trend" that would allow it to add a new seat in Gipuzkoa (and reach three in Euskadi), while Sumar recalls that "two months ago everyone took it for granted a government with Vox" but that "the contest remains open".
In a debate on Radio Euskadi, reported by Europa Press, several parliamentarians analyzed the Basque sociometer released this Friday. The survey places EH Bildu as the winner of the general elections of November 29 in Euskadi, with seven seats (29.1% of the vote), two more than in 2023. The PSE-EE would be in second place with five deputies (24.7%), the same as in the previous appointment. The PNV would lose one representative and would remain with four (21.9%), which could leave it without its own parliamentary group, while the PP would retain its current two seats (12.6%).
The jeltzale parliamentarian Ainara Zelaia perceives a "very activated" electorate, with almost 60% turnout expected, although she warns that "we are facing a very open match" and that "everything at stake" still depends on the undecided vote.
After emphasizing that in the general elections "Euskadi votes differently", Zelaia has highlighted that the vote estimate "is very similar in absolute terms" to that of the previous elections, which, in her view, "constitutes a very solid floor" for the PNV.
In her opinion, EH Bildu "has captured the space of the discontented left and that 'protest vote' that is sometimes given in Euskadi in the general elections", and she added that "the vote of the state far left sinks in Euskadi and Bildu's growth is precisely at the expense of that collapse".
"Structural growth" of EH Bildu
EH Bildu parliamentarian Gorka Ortiz de Guinea states that "all the polls show a structural growth trend for EH Bildu", something that, according to him, "explains the nervousness" of some political forces.
Ortiz de Guinea maintains that this advance is due to the "responsible, coherent, predictable position" that the sovereigntist coalition has maintained and that, he assures, citizens clearly perceive. "EH Bildu does not play at equidistance, we do not generate confusion, nor do we make noise," he has pointed out.
Even so, he emphasizes that what is "truly important" is "to defeat at the polls the reactionary bloc over pensions, education, Euskera, and Basque self-government" and he is convinced that "it is possible."
Socialist criticism of the "cooked sociometer"
Ekain Rico, PSE-EE parliamentarian, considers that demographic studies "must be looked at with respect, but above all with memory." He recalls that in 2023 "it told us that the socialists were going to be the third force in this country," when in the end they were "the most voted force above PNV and EH Bildu."
"And I also do not hide that we also have mistrust in the methodology and in the high number of undecideds; in the methodology because we see that there is also quite a bit of cooking, if one sees the results that the surveyed citizens spontaneously give, then one sees that there is cooking in this survey," he has indicated.
Despite the sociometer data, he assures that PSE-EE handles "polls that are much better than this one" and maintains that citizens "know perfectly well what they are voting for, and in these (elections) it is very clear, either Pedro Sánchez or the far right."
PP appeals to the undecided vote and Sumar sees an "open scenario"
The Basque PP parliamentarian Muriel Larrea states that her party is going through a "good trend" and that "the Popular Party is growing in Euskadi" by maintaining its seats.
However, she warns that the undecided vote will be key to determining whether Euskadi sends to Congress "a deputy who does not endorse all of Sánchez's policies, which is what all the deputies from the Basque Country have done until now." She describes the elections as "decisive elections" and highlights the relevance of the "last seat of Gipuzkoa," which "is at stake between PP, PSE-EE and Bildu." "It should be told to the undecided voter that it is in their hands to make a change in Sánchez's Government thanks to their vote," she has emphasized.
Lastly, the Sumar parliamentarian, Jon Hernández, describes an "open scenario" due to the "high percentage of undecided people" and stresses that "we are living in times where events happen one after another and that modifies people's intention to vote".
Hernández considers it "interesting" that in Euskadi "there is still a sector of the population that is committed to the federal left, to the left of the PSOE, more ambitious in terms of social policies".
In his view, the Frente Amplio "can represent that set of the population" and, after recalling that "two months ago everyone took for granted that we would have a government with Vox in it", insists that "the game is still open" and that "we must not give up".