“We are in shock, like all of civil society, and it is very recent”. With those words, a source from Ferraz brushes off the question of how the railway accident in Urda could affect the elections of 29N. All the parties, with the exception of Vox, suspended their campaign events and it seems premature to anticipate electoral consequences with the victims so recent, the pain of the families and the heaps of iron still on the ground. But not for reasons of discomfort should one stop analyzing how this very dark episode impacts the composition of the future Cortes Generales and of the next Government that, among other things, will have to articulate a plan to prevent situations like this from happening again.
The PSOE had designed a campaign with a very recognizable tone, of an optimistic kind, with “the force of love” very present, full of hope and appealing to an emotional mobilization of its electorate to continue four more years. A comeback speech nourished by the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil and encouraged by an Alberto Núñez Feijóo for whom campaigns do not go especially well. His continuous lapses, the controversy surrounding pensions, a surging Vox and the visit of Javier Milei have been eroding his electoral aspirations and the latest polls were already reflecting a rise in the socialists to the detriment of the populars. Now, everything has changed.
The terrible accident in Urda, which has already claimed the lives of 69 people, has abruptly broken the script. The Government’s priority is to attend to the victims and their relatives, clarify the causes of the accident and ensure that responsibilities are assigned. The president himself, Pedro Sánchez, anticipated that it will be answered with “forcefulness”. From the PSOE they insist that it is not the time for political readings and all their thoughts are with the families of the victims.
The day after tomorrow
The present moment requires what it requires, but 29N is approaching inexorably and not much later Ferraz will have to analyze the scenario and redirect its strategy, since the tragedy radically changes the axis and the positive campaign has been displaced irremediably by a crisis that demands prudence, explanations and political decisions.
29N is approaching inexorably and not much later Ferraz will have to analyze the scenario and redirect its strategy, but carefully so as not to give the impression that the page has been turned too soon
The challenge is enormous because the issue is not only when it will be able to resume ordinary electoral activity, but how to do so without giving the impression that the page has been turned too soon. The suspension of the pre-campaign, the minutes of silence and the three-day official mourning set the pace and, after that, the timing will be set by the judicial investigation and the Government’s response.
uncertainty ahead of 29N
With just over a month to go before the elections, the 29-N scenario is more open than ever. The accident introduces a variable impossible to incorporate into the forecasts the parties were handling and leaves any calculation about its impact at the polls in suspense. The course of the investigation, the management that the Government makes and the responsibilities that may arise will shape the debate in the coming weeks. For now, it is premature to venture whether the crisis will translate into electoral wear for the PSOE or whether the party will manage to contain its effects. What does seem clear is that Ferraz will have to face a very different campaign from the one it had designed.
From illusion to mourning: a campaign that can no longer be the same
Ferraz had opted for a campaign with an emotional and optimistic tone, with the slogan The strength of the people as the guiding thread. Sánchez combined more political interventions with episodes of a more personal nature, such as the kiss with his wife, Begoña Gómez, videos running alongside Carlos Cuerpo, a very particular playlist at the rallies, more jocular banners to welcome Milei to Spain… In short, a staging that sought to activate a left that was very worn out and demobilized.
Urda breaks with that approach. The music, the dances, the festive appeals and any message of hope are now difficult to sustain. They would be completely out of place in a context with numerous fatalities. Not only is the campaign calendar paused, the tone of it changes and the party will have to find a way to resume it with caution and respect. A rushed return to electoral normality can provoke notable rejection, even within its own ranks.
Puente, in the line of fire
And speaking of his ranks: Óscar Puente. The Minister of Transport is in the eye of the storm. The cleansing of responsibilities points to the top person in charge, regardless of what the investigation determines. The accident comes after another fatal rail accident in Adamuz last January, and the pressure is increasing.
Puente has ruled out, for now, resigning, arguing that his priority is to clarify what happened. From Moncloa, support has been conveyed to the minister (although some voices are very lukewarm) and they insist that the immediate focus must be on the victims, the families, and the investigation. But Sánchez’s promise to act “with forcefulness” fuels the flames of discord, especially in an electoral context.
Puente is one of the most powerful figures in the PSOE, with enormous prominence and a very rough profile because of his frequent confrontations on social media. Head of the list for Valladolid, he never shies away from hand-to-hand combat. Urda places him in the crosshairs and Sánchez will have to make delicate decisions: Support a member of the Executive who is part of his hard core or let one of the most recognizable faces fall?
And the pressure does not come only from the opposition. There are voices in Ferraz that are betting, at least, on limiting his participation in the campaign. Little less than hiding him a bit, as with former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who once led rallies and after the revelation of the trousseau, does not appear.
The Government’s usual partners are also tightening the rope. Frente Amplio, through Sumar, has filed a request for an appearance so that Óscar Puente reports before the Permanent Deputation, and ERC (Republican Group) and Podemos (Mixed) have done the same. The demand goes beyond a request for information. José Ignacio García, leader of Adelante Andalucía, has called for the minister’s resignation, considering that responsibility cannot fall exclusively on a worker.
In the same vein, the PNV, whose candidate for Congress, Maribel Vaquero, has stated that “if Sánchez recognizes that it is unassumable, technical and political responsibilities will have to be assumed at the highest level.”
Kindling for PP and Vox
Housing had acquired a central role in the pre-campaign for obvious reasons, since the snap election was called because of the impossibility of ratifying a royal decree-law on housing. Then, pensions and, more recently, the international context, with Milei's visit and Lula's victory in Brazil. The framework was ideal for the PSOE, which was going with the wind at its back. Until now.
Tragedy displaces any concrete element that the PSOE wanted to bring up. Ferraz had bet on Aránzazu Figueroa to win over the youth vote and defend the need for housing policies, but does it make any sense now to talk about it? None of the aforementioned formally disappears, but the social agenda is displaced before the urgency of the crisis.
PP and Vox hold the baton, and they will surely, once mourning is over (at least in Génova, because Vox has already gone on the offensive), strike at Sánchez, Puente and all his management. The socialists are going to have a hard time establishing a discursive framework, as they had been doing, and will move into a more defensive position.
The accident represents a substantial change in the context of the socialist campaign. However, it does not by itself allow us to anticipate an electoral result. Its impact will depend on factors that are still open: the investigation, how the Government manages the emergency, what information is made public, whether decisions are adopted on responsibilities and how voters interpret the institutional response. 29N waits for no one.