The Polymarket prediction market has raised this Friday the expectations of a call for early general elections in Spain before the end of 2026, coinciding with the parliamentary defeat of the two housing decrees and the reflection period opened by Pedro Sánchez regarding the future of the legislature.
Specifically, the market currently places a 52% chance that the call will occur before October 31, while the option for it to happen before November 30 is at 50%. The platform has accumulated more than 58,000 dollars in trading volume in this market, open since last March 5.
The figures have changed during the afternoon and may continue to do so, as Polymarket updates its percentages based on the operations of its users. The platform itself explains that the price of each position represents the implied probability that participants assign to the occurrence of the event.
The movement occurs after Congress rejected this Friday the two housing decrees of the Government, a defeat that has reopened the debate on the duration of the legislature. After the vote, sources from Moncloa consulted by Demócrata stated that the president has taken the weekend to analyze his next steps and that early elections are not ruled out.
"In Moncloa we are calm, it is time to think and reflect. The decision is known only by one person, and that is Sánchez himself. We do not rule anything out, but he decides and it is time to reflect", the same sources indicated.
The percentages from Polymarket do not constitute a survey or an official forecast about the decision that Sánchez will make. It is a prediction market in which participants buy and sell positions on different events, so the probabilities can change rapidly as new information emerges.
The platform has three horizons open for Spain: October 31, November 30, and December 31, 2026. The market currently has a volume of 58,206 dollars and will remain open until the end of the year.