The ministers’ betting pool of PP and Vox has a reference photograph: the first row that Carmen Obregón identified in DEMÓCRATA during the presentation of the "Contract with Spain" by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. There, sixteen popular leaders appeared, several of them indicated by the political sources consulted as possible members of a future Government.
The journalist from DEMÓCRATA was at the Espacio Larra, where Feijóo brought together around 550 leaders, and she collected the conversations that accompanied the staging. While the candidate presented his commitments, other calculations circulated in the bystanders’ talk: who could end up in the Council of Ministers and who would be left out.
That information included a detail that remains decisive. Not all the members of the first row would end up being ministers. There were also aspirants in more discreet positions and names absent that were included in the bets.
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This is the first row of Feijóo: the 14 names of the PP that fuel the pools about his ministers
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The 16 names that Carmen Obregón identified in DEMÓCRATA
The first row brought together Ignacio Dancausa, Ildefonso Castro, Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, Alfonso Serrano, Pedro Rollán, Alberto Nadal, Elías Bendodo, and Alma Ezcurra.
They were completed by Ester Muñoz, Cuca Gamarra, Carmen Fúnez, Borja Sémper, Alicia García, Javier de Andrés, Sergio Sayas, and Alejandro Fernández.
Carmen Obregón’s information makes it possible to identify part of the group of leaders on which expectations of government are projected. It does not assign a specific portfolio to each one nor does it present their presence at the event as a guarantee of appointment.
The fact introduces an alignment problem. Feijóo has committed to putting together an Executive of fourteen ministries. If he finally shares a Government with Vox, part of those seats would have to be reserved for his partner. And, in that case, external professionals outside the party would still have to be incorporated.
Economy and Finance: Hernández de Cos, Bravo, Conde, and Pablo Isla
The economic area concentrates some of the most specific bets. El País placed Pablo Hernández de Cos and Francisco Conde among the names being considered for a possible economic vice presidency. It also indicated Juan Bravo for Finance and Alberto Nadal for economic responsibilities that could extend to Industry or Trade. These are possibilities attributed to sources from the PP, not appointments announced.
Digital Closure incorporates Pablo Isla into conversations about a possible economical hiring. His information also places Bravo among the favorites for the Treasury and contemplates for Nadal different destinations, including the Economic Office of Moncloa. This latter option would be a post in the Presidency, not necessarily a ministry.
Nadal thus connects the photograph collected by DEMÓCRATA with information about the economic team. The coincidence of his name in different lineups shows that he is one of the recurring profiles; it does not allow his destination to be considered settled.
Tellado, Gamarra, Sémper and the Cayetana enigma
Away from the economic bloc, Artículo14 includes Miguel Tellado, Cuca Gamarra and Esteban González Pons among the possible members of the Executive. It also collects bets on José Luis Martínez-Almeida as the government’s spokesperson.
ElPlural, for its part, highlights expectations about Borja Sémper and divergent versions surrounding Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo. When reviewing other publications, it collects both the possibility that she will reach a ministry and that she will hold the parliamentary spokesperson position.
The difference matters. The distribution after the elections would also include responsibilities in Congress and in the party. That a leader gains weight in the lists or in the campaign does not determine that he will sit on the Council of Ministers.
Vox names that enter the lineups
The list of possible Government members for Vox goes beyond Santiago Abascal. Pablo Montesinos in Artículo14 pointed to Ignacio Garriga and Montse Lluis, whom he identifies as a central figure in negotiating the autonomous coalitions.
The same information includes the names of Jorge Buxadé, José María Figaredo, Carlos Hernández Quero, Samuel Vázquez and Rocío de Meer. It does not assign them specific ministries nor does it substantiate that there exists a cabinet proposal agreed with the PP.
In Abascal’s case, El Independiente proposes a vice presidency as a scenario for a possible agreement. This is a provision from its analysis about the coalition, not a position announced by the leader.
The ministries that the PP wants to keep versus Vox
The information from Cristina de la Hoz in El Independiente shifts the focus from names to competencies. According to the popular sources it consults, the PP intends to keep Economy and Treasury, Home Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense and Justice.
To that group add the energy and environmental policies and Education. Transport also gains relevance: Feijóo has defended that its person in charge must have proven experience and training.
The same article uses the regional agreements as a reference to anticipate possible Vox interests in Agriculture, social and family policies, Tourism, the Environment, and Deregulation.
There is a possible friction there: some competences that the analysis places among Vox’s aspirations also appear among those the PP wants to keep. Before assigning names, both parties would have to resolve what each one controls.
The information outlines three groups that would compete for space: PP leaders, possible external additions, and Vox representatives. The final composition would depend on the results, on support for the investiture, and on the agreement the parties reached.
Meanwhile, Feijóo publicly maintains caution. In the event described by DEMÓCRATA he left this instruction for his leaders: "Nothing is celebrated here until the last electoral college closes."