Pedro Sánchez has found in the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil a new argument to feed the electoral expectations of the PSOE. Just over a month before the general elections of November 29, the president of the Government has immediately transferred the Brazilian result to the Spanish scenario and has presented it as a sign that the radical right can be defeated at the polls, even when the polls point in another direction.
"Great victory for Lula! What has happened in Brazil will happen in Spain. The comeback of global progressivism has just begun", he wrote this Monday on his X account. The congratulation to the Brazilian leader has come accompanied by an explicitly national reading: Sánchez not only celebrates Lula's continuity at the head of the Government, but uses his victory to reinforce the message with which the PSOE faces the final stretch of the campaign.
¡Gran victoria de @LulaOficial!
— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) October 26, 2026
Lo que ha pasado en Brasil, pasará en España.
La remontada del progresismo global acaba de comenzar.
Lula has achieved a fourth term after winning in the second round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The leader of the Workers' Party has obtained 51.79% of the votes, compared to 48.21% of his rival, after the first round, held on October 4, left Bolsonaro ahead. The result offers socialists an image of comeback that fits with the narrative that Sánchez wants to convey to Spanish voters.
The result of Lula offers socialists an image of comeback that fits with the narrative that Sánchez wants to convey to Spanish voters
The political operation has a clear logic: to transform an international victory into a signal of electoral possibility at home. Against polls that place the PP ahead of the PSOE, the president insists that the forecasts are not definitive and that progressive mobilization can change the outcome. The comparison with Brazil allows him to present the appointment of 29N not only as a dispute between Spanish parties but as part of a broader struggle between two political models.
Trump, the next test for the international narrative
Lula's victory comes, moreover, eight days before the midterm elections in the United States, scheduled for November 3. Americans will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. The result will not decide the presidency, but it will determine the margin of maneuver for Donald Trump during the second half of his term and will serve to measure electoral support for his agenda.
The available projections as of October 26 indicate that the Democrats have a chance to regain the House of Representatives, while the contest for the Senate presents a tighter scenario. One of the estimates published by Polling Forecast places the probability of a Democratic majority in the House at 77% and at 57% for the Democrats to control the Senate. These are projections subject to the uncertainty of the polls, not anticipated results.
For Sánchez, the interest of the U.S. election lies in its value as a political thermometer. If the Republican Party loses control of one or both chambers, Trump's opponents could interpret it as a sign of weariness of his project. If the Republicans maintain their majorities, the result would provide a different argument to those who defend the resilience of the conservative movement. In either case, the scrutiny will be read beyond the United States, although the reasons for the vote will also depend on internal issues, such as the economy, the cost of living, and the assessment of presidential management.
The comparison with Brazil, however, has limits. Lula has just won a direct presidential election; in the United States, Congress will be renewed, with different contests in each state and district. The midterms are not a perfect plebiscite on Trump, just as the Brazilian victory does not allow for anticipating the outcome of the Spanish elections. Its relevance for Sánchez's narrative is different: both events feed the debate on whether the advance of conservative forces is a consolidated trend or if there is space for an electoral response from their opponents.
The PSOE turns Lula's victory into a collective message
Sánchez has not been the only member of the Government who has turned to the Brazilian result to defend the possibility of a comeback. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, has congratulated Lula on a victory that he has described as "brilliant and democratic" and has emphasized the strategic relationship between both countries. He has also taken advantage of the result to insist that "the only poll that matters is the one on election day", an idea that connects directly with the Spanish campaign.
Felicidades @LulaOficial por una victoria brillante y democrática en Brasil.
— José Manuel Albares (@jmalbares) October 26, 2026
España y Brasil compartimos compromiso con los valores de la paz, la democracia, la justicia social y el multilateralismo. Trabajaremos juntos por un futuro de progreso para todos. pic.twitter.com/6Zs3JcLvct
The Minister of Territorial Policy, Ángel Víctor Torres, has also predicted a socialist comeback, while the spokesperson minister, Elma Saiz, has presented the Brazilian outcome as a victory of democracy against hatred, disinformation, and denialism. The PSOE thus tries to turn Lula's result into a shared argument by the entire Government and its political space.
The strategy is not limited to celebrating an ideological ally. The Brazilian result allows the socialists to counterbalance the weight of the polls with a recent example where the outcome deviated from previous expectations. The message seeks to mobilize progressive voters and question the idea that a victory for the right is inevitable. But the translation of the Brazilian case to the Spanish context has a primarily political and symbolic dimension: the electoral dynamics, candidates, and issues that condition the vote are different in each country.
Milei, the counterpoint to the campaign against PP and Vox
The other international reference that Sánchez has incorporated into his speech is Javier Milei. The visit of the Argentine president to Madrid served the head of the Executive to intensify his warnings against a possible alternation led by PP and Vox. In fact, as soon as he landed, Ferraz welcomed him with a banner.
Sí, soy zurdo.#ZurdosYOrgullosos#ZurdasYOrgullosas pic.twitter.com/VTGKqR9Mjg
— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) October 21, 2026
At a rally in Burgos, Sánchez stated that both formations do not simply offer a change of Government, but rather a "regression," and linked Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal with the political and economic model of Milei.
The president contrasted the labor and economic situation of Argentina with the data he claims from Spain, and used the visit to warn of the consequences that, in his opinion, would arise from applying similar policies in the country. "What you do not want for the world, do not want for your country," he defended at that event, where he also advocated for increases in the minimum wage and pensions.
Lula and Milei thus fulfill opposing functions within the socialist campaign. The former represents the example of a progressive victory against a rival from the radical right; the latter, the warning about the model that Sánchez attributes to his Spanish adversaries. Trump adds a third piece: the reference to a central power whose electoral date may fuel international interpretations about the strength or wear of the American right.
The common thread is the president's attempt to place the elections of 29-N within a global political dispute. But that narrative also has its limits. Neither the Brazilian result guarantees a socialist comeback in Spain nor will the outcome of the midterms determine the Spanish vote. What Sánchez's messages do show is that the PSOE wants to use international events to contest the framework of the campaign: against the idea of a conservative cycle that is difficult to stop, the president claims that the polls are still open and that progressivism can win again.