Israel is preparing to learn the first results of the elections for the 26th Knesset, on a day marked by historic participation and the dispute between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot. The polling stations are scheduled to close at 10:00 PM, 9:00 PM in mainland Spain, at which point the main Israeli television networks will publish their exit polls. However, the official counting will begin later and the final distribution of the 120 seats could take several days to be known.
The Central Electoral Commission has reported that participation reached 74.3% at 8:00 PM, eight points above the record from the 2022 elections and the highest percentage at that hour since 1988. More than 5.4 million citizens had already gone to vote, a mobilization that introduces new uncertainties about the composition of Parliament and the possibilities of the different parties reaching government agreements.
Although the first projections will allow knowing tonight the estimated distribution of the seats, the final count is scheduled for Friday, October 30, and the official publication of the results will take place on November 4, according to the electoral calendar.
What time will the first results of the elections in Israel be known?
The main Israeli television networks, including Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13, are expected to broadcast their exit polls immediately after the closing of the polling stations, scheduled for 10:00 PM in Israel.
In mainland Spain, it will be 9:00 PM on this Tuesday, October 27, so the first estimates of the distribution of seats will be available before the official counting begins.
These polls, conducted based on interviews with citizens who have already voted, will allow knowing the first projections about the result of Likud, Netanyahu's party, and Yashar, the party led by Eisenkot.
However, the television estimates do not equate to counted votes and may present significant differences regarding the final result, especially when several candidacies are close to the electoral threshold necessary to obtain representation.
How votes are counted in Israel and when the official counting begins
...Unlike the Spanish general elections, in which the provisional counting allows for practically all the distribution of seats to be known during the same election night, the Israeli system includes a count that can extend over several days, especially due to the subsequent incorporation of certain votes cast outside the ordinary polling stations.
Once the polls are closed, the officials at each polling station proceed to count the ballots and transfer the results to the corresponding electoral bodies, which verify the data before incorporating it into the national count.
The first official figures will begin to be known during the early hours of Wednesday, when the Central Electoral Commission progressively publishes the results received from the polling stations.
During the first hours of the count, it will be possible to observe the evolution of the percentage of votes for each candidacy, although the distribution of seats will remain provisional until all the ballots are incorporated and it is determined which parties have surpassed the electoral threshold.
Wednesday morning, October 28, should provide a more accurate picture of the result, although modifications in the parliamentary distribution could still occur.
The votes of the military and other groups are counted later
One of the peculiarities of the Israeli electoral system is the existence of the so-called double envelope votes, a special procedure used by certain groups that cannot vote in an ordinary polling station.
Among them are members of the Armed Forces, hospitalized patients, incarcerated individuals, and electoral workers, in addition to other citizens authorized to use this system.
These ballots are placed in a second envelope that contains the necessary data to verify that the voter has the right to vote and has not cast another vote.
Once their identity is verified, the inner envelope is incorporated into the count while preserving the secrecy of the ballot.
The counting of these votes can modify the provisional results, especially when the differences between parties are small or when a candidacy is close to the minimum percentage necessary to access Parliament.
3.25% of the votes can decide the distribution of seats
The Israeli electoral system uses a single national constituency to elect the 120 members of the Knesset, through a proportional representation model in which citizens vote for party lists and not directly for the prime minister.
To achieve parliamentary representation, candidacies need to reach at least 3.25% of valid votes. The parties that do not exceed this percentage are excluded from the distribution of seats, even if they have received tens of thousands of votes.
The 120 members are distributed among the candidacies that exceed this threshold using the Bader-Ofer method, which allows for the allocation of seats based on the votes obtained and the agreements on surplus votes that certain parties can subscribe to.
The importance of this mechanism is especially high in these elections, since the latest polls published before the voting showed several candidacies close to the required minimum.
If a party manages to exceed 3.25%, it can access several seats, while falling a few tenths below means losing all possibility of representation. This circumstance can significantly alter the composition of parliamentary blocs.
When will the final results be known
Although the first projections will be published this Tuesday and the official counting will advance during the early morning, the electoral calendar sets different dates to complete and formalize the result.
| Date | Counting phase |
|---|---|
| Tuesday 27, 21:00 h (Spain) | Expected closure of polling stations and publication of exit polls |
| Early morning of Wednesday 28 | First official results of the count |
| Wednesday 28 | Progress of the counting and first estimates based on counted votes |
| Friday 30 | Expected date to complete the count |
| Wednesday, November 4 | Official publication of the final results |
The Central Electoral Commission will be responsible for validating the result and determining the final composition of the Knesset, once the votes have been counted and any incidents that may arise during the process have been resolved.
Who will form the Government after the elections?
The electoral result does not automatically determine who will hold the head of the Israeli Government, since no party needs to be the most voted to lead a coalition if another candidate manages to gather more parliamentary support.
The absolute majority is found in 61 of the 120 deputies, a figure that usually forces negotiations between different parties.
Once the results are proclaimed, the president of Israel, Isaac Herzog, will open a round of consultations with the representatives of the elected parties and will assign the formation of the Government to the deputy he considers to have the greatest chances of obtaining a majority.
The designated candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with the possibility of requesting an extension of up to 14 additional days.
If the negotiations fail, the system provides for new procedures to attempt to form an Executive before reaching a possible electoral repetition.
Therefore, although the distribution of seats may be known in the coming days, the identity of the next prime minister could take several weeks to be definitively resolved, especially if none of the blocs manages to gather the 61 deputies necessary to govern.