Expansion | The ECB freezes interest rates despite its concern over inflation risks

The ECB keeps rates unchanged despite the rebound in inflation and the rise in energy prices, and Lagarde brings forward her departure to February 2027.

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The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has opted in its latest meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. In this way, the deposit rate (DFR) remains at 2.5%, that of the main refinancing operations (MRO) at 2.65% and that of the marginal lending facility (MLF) at 2.90%, despite the institution having shown concern about the evolution of inflation and its upward short-term forecasts.

The central bank of the eurozone has decided to pause the path of hikes after the increases applied in September and, previously, in June, in a context in which the overall price index rebounded to 3.8% in September, a level not seen for three years.

Although the ECB has opted not to tighten monetary policy further, it has underlined its concern about the upward risks to prices and the possible negative impact on economic activity of the rise in energy costs, in a scenario marked by the high cost of a barrel of Brent, which remains above 100 dollars.

However, in its statement the institution notes that the effects of this energy disruption "have not yet fully materialized" and that underlying inflation has remained "stable" for now, while wages have still not registered a significant reaction.

"The greater scope and duration of the energy disruption, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, will probably drive inflation and slow growth. Financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting of the Governing Council, which will probably affect inflation and growth," the body has warned.

In line with this diagnosis, the ECB has reiterated that it will continue defining its monetary policy strategy with the aim of ensuring that inflation stabilizes at 2% in the medium term, thus keeping expectations anchored.

The issuing institute has insisted that it retains room to manage the high uncertainty arising from the conflict in the Middle East and has emphasized that the future path of rates will depend on the economic data that become known in the coming months.

Before the decision on the price of money became public, the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, announced that she will leave the post on February 7, 2027, an early departure about which numerous rumors were already circulating and which will imply a profound renewal at the top of the monetary authority.