What Trump’s defeat means in geopolitical terms: this is what changes for China, Russia, Iran, and Israel

The Democratic victory in the midterms alters the balance of power in Washington and opens new uncertainties for China, Russia, Iran and Israel. Trump will continue to direct foreign policy, but his negotiations, military decisions and economic commitments will face a Congress with greater ability to demand explanations and dispute the funds

fotonoticia 20261104062607 1920

fotonoticia 20261104062607 1920

Add DEMÓCRATA to Google

Ask FREN

Published

Last updated

5 minutes

Most read

Elecciones 29N · Encuestas

La media de las encuestas

Media a 3 de noviembre de 2026 · 17 institutos

  • PP30,4 %
  • PSOE27,4 %
  • Vox19,2 %
  • Frente Amplio6,5 %
  • ERC2,4 %
  • Podemos2,4 %
010203040ene 2024jul 2024ene 2025jul 2025ene 2026jul 2026

Media del último estudio de cada instituto en 30 días y su evolución semanal desde el 23J. Partidos con al menos un 2 %.

Todas las encuestas

Elecciones generales del 29 de noviembre · Demócrata

Donald Trump’s electoral defeat forces a reassessment of the calculations about the United States far beyond its borders. A president who loses parliamentary support retains the ability to negotiate with other powers, but encounters more obstacles to ensure that his commitments translate into laws, budgets, and appointments.

The Democratic victory opens a period of greater conflict between Congress and the White House. Its international effects will depend on what decisions Trump wants to adopt, the powers he uses, and the agreements his adversaries manage to build. The European Parliament’s Service for Studies had already pointed out before the elections that this combination: greater parliamentary control, with the presidential veto and executive orders still in the hands of the incumbent.

For China, the change does not guarantee a commercial truce. For Russia, it may complicate a negotiation on Ukraine that faces resistance in the Capitol. Iran and Israel will have to address both presidential decisions and the conditions that lawmakers want to impose on funding and military cooperation.

China: a weakened Trump does not mean a more complacent Washington

Beijing will have to distinguish between the president’s electoral weakness and the direction of U.S. policy. Democrats may confront Trump over his methods without giving up defending the industry, technology, and security of the United States against China.

The first front will be trade. A majority opposed to Trump’s tariffs may try to limit his powers or demand greater congressional involvement in international agreements. CSIS had identified before the elections precisely that recovery of parliamentary power over trade as one of the possible priorities of a new majority.

The consequence for China would be negotiations with more participants and possible vetoes. An understanding between Trump and Xi Jinping would continue to carry weight, but its scope would depend on whether he needs legislative changes or can be carried out through presidential authorities.

There is also no reason to interpret the outcome as an immediate withdrawal of trade restrictions. Democrats will be able to discuss the instruments of pressure on China without abandoning competition with it.

Taiwan: Congress can make concessions to Beijing more difficult

Taiwan shows why a Trump defeat does not necessarily equate to a Chinese victory. Support for certain security measures for the island cuts across U.S. party divisions.

In its analysis of the Trump-Xi summit in September, CSIS noted that there was bipartisan consensus in Congress in favor of arms sales to Taiwan. That backing limits the usefulness of reading the relationship with Beijing as a simple choice between hard-line Republicans and conciliatory Democrats.

A Democratic majority could examine more intensively any presidential concession that affected the island. But the election outcome also does not guarantee a new arms sales operation, an immediate delivery, or an additional military commitment: each decision has its own procedures.

The question will be what agreements Trump seeks with China and what Congress is willing to accept to make them possible.

Russia: more obstacles to an agreement on Ukraine without parliamentary backing

For Moscow, a Congress willing to support Ukraine can make it harder for presidential decisions that reduce support for Kyiv or ease pressure on Russia. Legislators have budgetary and oversight tools to intervene in that discussion.

That does not make Democrats directly responsible for the diplomatic negotiation. Trump will keep a central role and will be able to oppose it by vetoing legislative measures that he rejects.

The scope for action will be in the specific agreements: funding, conditions of the aid, and possible measures on sanctions. Experts consulted by Kyiv Independent before the vote highlighted the possibility of incorporating provisions favorable to Ukraine into large defense packages that the president may have an interest in approving.

For the Kremlin, the reading is therefore more complex than that of a weakened adversary. A Trump with less parliamentary backing can also have less ability to turn a negotiated promise into a lasting U.S. policy.

Iran: the cost of the war will have more oversight, but there is no election truce

The war with Iran will be one of the issues on which the new majority can demand explanations about objectives, costs, and results. Funding provides Congress with a channel to pressure the Administration and discuss the conditions of its actions.

However, winning legislative elections alone does not allow one to order the end of a war by itself. Attempts to restrict military operations can run into a presidential veto and disputes over the powers of each branch.

For Tehran, the Republican defeat could open expectations of greater internal pressure on Trump. It would be risky to confuse those expectations with a U.S. decision to de-escalate, which still needs to be made concrete.

Israel: more debate over weapons and the conditions of the aid

The parliamentary shift may broaden the U.S. debate on military cooperation with Israel, arms transfers, and the situation of Palestinians. Within the Democratic Party, different positions coexist on how to use that relationship to influence Israeli decisions.

Let us remember that just yesterday Trump announced that Washington will suspend the delivery of 4 billion dollars (about 3,575 million euros) in military assistance to Israel before the end of the year, after emphasizing that this decision is part of an understanding reached with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from whom the proposal would have originated.

The White House will remain a decisive interlocutor. But securing presidential backing may prove insufficient for those measures that also need financing or parliamentary authorization.

Gulf and Asia allies will have to look to two centers of power

For countries negotiating military cooperation, investments, or trade agreements with Washington, the practical consequence will be paying more attention to Congress. Majorities decide who heads committees, what projects are voted on, and what issues are investigated. The Senate also plays a role in numerous appointments to the Executive.

This can offer additional avenues to defend a bilateral relationship. It can also slow down agreements or introduce conditions that were not included in discussions with the White House.

The effect will depend on the content of each commitment. A political agreement announced by Trump, an arms sale, and a trade law do not necessarily follow the same procedure or are subject to identical oversight.

The global risk: that Trump looks outside for the margin he loses within

A possibility is that the president responds to the new balance by seeking agreements. Another is that he intensifies the use of his executive powers and concentrates his initiatives in areas where he has more autonomy. The second option deserves international attention, but it is still a scenario, not a verified decision.

The first indications will be in the priorities of the new commissions, the budget negotiations, and the initiatives on trade and security. The new parliamentary mandates begin in January 2027; until then, the outgoing Congress will continue to act.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What steps must the United States Congress follow to approve new control laws over international trade agreements after midterm elections?

This question specifically refers to the functioning of the United States Congress and the processing of its federal legislation, an area outside my specialization.

I am FREN, an assistant specialized in the politics and institutions of Spain: Congress of Deputies, Senate, central and regional governments, official gazettes, Spanish regulations, Spanish political parties and actors, as well as the regulatory and parliamentary context in Spain.

Therefore, I cannot offer you a reliable and detailed explanation about the specific steps the United States Congress must follow to approve new control laws over international trade agreements, nor about how the midterms influence its internal balances and legislative processing there.

However, I can help you with issues such as:

  • How treaties and international agreements are processed in Spain by the Cortes Generales.
  • The role of the Congress of Deputies in controlling the European Union's trade policy.
  • The steps to follow to approve in Spain a law that regulates or conditions certain international trade agreements.
  • How parliamentary majorities, committees, and legislative procedures work in the Spanish system.
  • Which parties or political actors in Spain have taken positions on certain trade agreements (for example, free trade treaties) and what they have said about them.

If you are interested, I can reformulate your question into the Spanish context, for example:

  • "What steps must the Congress of Deputies follow to approve a law that limits or conditions international trade agreements signed by Spain or the EU?"
  • "What control mechanisms does the Spanish Parliament have over international trade treaties?"
  • "What differences exist, in the Spanish system, between approving an ordinary law on foreign trade and authorizing an international treaty?"

If you pose the question in those terms (focused on Spain), I will be able to give you a detailed and step-by-step answer about the applicable parliamentary procedure, the bodies involved, the types of majorities required, and how that control would be politically articulated from the Cortes Generales.

What steps must the Congress of Deputies follow to approve a law regulating international trade agreements? What control does the Spanish Parliament have over trade treaties signed by the European Union? How is the authorization of an international treaty processed in Spain and how does it differ from an ordinary law?

What are the powers of the President of the United States in foreign policy according to the U.S. Constitution?

The United States Constitution does not contain a “closed catalog” of foreign policy powers as, for example, a European organic law would, but it does establish a set of powers that, in practice, make the president the main person responsible for foreign action. These powers are mainly distributed between Article II (Executive Power) and, jointly, with the Senate in matters of treaties and appointments.

1. Head of the Executive Branch and conductor of foreign policy

Article II, Section 1, establishes that the “executive power” rests with the president. From there, constitutional practice and jurisprudence have understood that this includes the general direction of foreign and national security policy. The president:

  • Formulates and directs the United States' foreign strategy.
  • Coordinates the involved departments (State, Defense, Treasury, Homeland Security, etc.).
  • Issues directives and executive orders that specify the U.S. position before other states or international organizations, as long as they do not contradict laws passed by Congress.
2. Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces

Article II, Section 2, declares the president “Commander in Chief” of the United States Armed Forces. In foreign policy, this translates into:

  • Operational direction of military forces in armed conflicts and deployments abroad.
  • Ability to order limited military operations without a formal declaration of war, although Congress retains the power to declare war and to fund or cut funding for operations.
  • Management of military alliances and defense cooperation, in coordination with the Department of Defense and the Senate when formal treaties are involved.

The Constitution does not precisely define how far this power extends without Congress's intervention, and this gray area has been filled with political practice (Korean War, Vietnam, later interventions) and with the War Powers Resolution of 1973, passed by Congress to try to limit the presidential margin.

3. International treaties: presidential negotiation, Senate ratification

Article II, Section 2, grants the president the power to negotiate and sign treaties, but requires the “advice and consent” of the Senate, with a qualified majority of two-thirds of the senators present for ratification.

  • The president directs the negotiation and signs the treaty on behalf of the United States.
  • The treaty only becomes binding internationally on the U.S. when the Senate gives its consent and ratification is perfected.
  • In practice, the president also proposes reservations, interpretative declarations, or additional protocols, which also require Senate consent.

To avoid the rigidity of ratification by two-thirds, so-called “executive agreements” and “congressional-executive agreements” are widely used, which rely on the president's own authority or prior laws of Congress. They are not literally in the Constitution but derive from the combination of its executive and legislative powers.

4. Appointments in the foreign field

Always according to Article II, Section 2, the president appoints, with the advice and consent of the Senate:

  • The Secretary of State (Foreign Minister) and the main diplomatic and national security positions.
  • Ambassadors and other heads of mission abroad.
  • The United States representatives to international organizations (UN, NATO, OAS, etc.).

With these appointments, the president configures the apparatus that executes his foreign policy. The Senate can block candidates, which acts as a political check.

5. Recognition of States and reception of ambassadors

Article II, Section 3, establishes that the president “shall receive ambassadors and other public ministers.” This power to receive foreign representatives has been interpreted as a power of recognition of states and governments:

  • Deciding whether to recognize a new state or a new government as legitimate.
  • Establishing or breaking diplomatic relations.

The Supreme Court has traditionally considered recognition an exclusive presidential power, although Congress can influence through laws and funding.

6. International representation and messages

The president is the main voice of the United States abroad. The Constitution charges him, in Article II, Section 3, to periodically inform Congress about the “state of the Union” and recommend measures, but internationally this translates into:

  • Delivering speeches and foreign policy statements on behalf of the country.
  • Signing letters, diplomatic notes, and other formal acts addressed to other states or international organizations.
  • Conducting bilateral and multilateral summits.
7. Limits and checks by Congress

Although the president is the central actor, the Constitution reserves fundamental powers to Congress that frame foreign policy:

  • Power to declare war and authorize the use of force.
  • Competence to regulate foreign trade and approve economic sanctions.
  • Budgetary power, which conditions military funding, foreign aid, and contributions to international organizations.

Overall, the U.S. Constitution outlines a system in which the president leads foreign policy and the use of force, but is subject to decisive checks by the Senate and the House of Representatives in treaty ratification, appointments, war, and financial resources.

Could you explain in more detail how the constitutional treaty ratification process works in the United States? What practical limits does Congress impose on the president's role as commander in chief in overseas conflicts? How do the foreign powers of the U.S. president compare with those of the Prime Minister in Spain?

What was Donald Trump's political career before becoming president?

I do not have a specific framework to work in detail and rigorously on the political careers of foreign leaders such as Donald Trump, because I am specialized in the politics and institutions of Spain (Congress, Senate, governments, regional parliaments, Spanish regulations, Spanish political actors, etc.).

However, I can help you with:

  • The career and situation of Spanish political parties and leaders (state and regional).
  • The processing of laws, royal decree-laws, and other initiatives in Spain.
  • The functioning of Spanish institutions (Government, Cortes Generales, regional parliaments, etc.).
  • The applicable regulations in Spain in various fields (economy, energy, housing, health, etc.).
  • Analysis of political and regulatory debate in Spain and its potential impact on sectors and organizations.

If you want, you can reformulate your question in a comparative key (for example, relating some aspect of Donald Trump's career with the Spanish political system) or focus it on a Spanish actor or institution, and I will be happy to help you within that scope.

Can you explain the political career of a specific Spanish leader before reaching a relevant position? How is the typical political career of a Prime Minister in Spain structured? What differences exist between the political system of the United States and Spain regarding access to the presidency or head of government?

Play

Test your knowledge with FREN!

How much do you know about this topic? Answer the following 3 questions.

What immediate effect does Trump's defeat in the midterms have on his ability to negotiate with other powers?

Question 1 of 3

What implication does the election result have for arms sales to Taiwan?

Question 2 of 3

When will the new parliamentary majorities arising from the midterms begin to exert influence?

Question 3 of 3