The scenario that Pedro Sánchez wanted to avoid has materialized just hours before Congress votes on the two housing decrees. Junts has decided to vote against both texts, closing the possibility of an abstention from its seven deputies that would allow the Government to save at least the main package of measures. The parliamentary defeat thus becomes the scenario that the Executive is heading towards if there is no last-minute change in the arithmetic of the Chamber.
What happens this Friday will have a dimension that goes beyond housing. A defeat would leave the Government facing new evidence of the fragility of the investiture majority and would bring back to the forefront the question that has accompanied the legislature for months: how long is the president willing to continue without a stable majority to advance his agenda.
Junts closes the door
The National Executive of Junts has agreed that its seven deputies reject the two royal decree laws. The party believes that the measures will reduce the rental supply, raise prices, and do not adequately protect small property owners nor stop investment funds. Junts also demands that the Government replace the current regulation with a new decree that meets its demands.
The decision is particularly relevant for the first of the texts. Until this Thursday, an abstention from Junts would allow for a minimal majority, after Podemos confirmed the support of its four deputies and PNV and Coalición Canaria announced that they would vote favorably for that package. The calculations placed the result at 172 favorable votes against 171 opposed if the seven deputies of Junts abstained and there were no absences or changes in position.
This avenue disappears with the agreement adopted by the independentist leadership.
The second decree arrives even more compromised. PNV and Coalición Canaria had already announced their rejection, so Junts' refusal broadens the opposing majority against a norm that includes the automatic renewal of certain rental contracts.
From housing to the legislature
If the two decrees fall this Friday, the problem for Sánchez will stop being limited to the content of the norms. The Government will have lost a vote that it turned into a political test throughout the week regarding the response to the housing crisis, after the protests triggered by the eviction of Maricarmen and the camp set up in Puerta del Sol.
The defeat would also come after the Executive has managed to incorporate Podemos into the supportive bloc. The four purple deputies will support both texts despite labeling them as insufficient, after the Confederation of Tenant Unions demanded their validation.
The problem is on the other side of the investiture majority. Junts once again demonstrates that the support that allowed Sánchez to continue in La Moncloa does not guarantee a stable legislative majority. The party had already voted alongside PP and Vox on other initiatives during this legislature and in June supported a popular motion demanding the president's resignation and the calling of a vote of confidence.
A defeat this Friday would not be equivalent to losing a vote of confidence. Sánchez can continue governing even if the decrees are rejected, negotiate the next laws individually, and maintain the legislature as long as he considers he has political leeway to do so.
But he can also decide that that leeway has run out.
The narrative of a defeat
Housing also offers the PSOE a very different political ground than other parliamentary defeats. Sánchez has publicly positioned the decrees as a choice between different models of protection and has urged the groups to explain their vote. If the norms are repealed, the Government could politically use the rejection of PP, Vox, and Junts to defend before the electorate that certain social measures have been blocked in Congress.
That would be, in any case, the political narrative of the Executive, not a legal consequence of the vote.
Junts has also prepared its own. Carles Puigdemont's party argues that the decrees would harm precisely those they claim to protect and demands that the Government immediately approve a different regulation.
The clash thus allows both parties to defend opposing positions in the event of a possible rupture: Moncloa can hold responsible the majority that rejects the decrees to prevent the definitive entry into force of the measures, while Junts can argue that it has halted a regulation that it considers harmful to families and small property owners.
An electoral calendar that is already available
If Sánchez concludes that the legislature is exhausted, the LOREG establishes that, when the president uses the power of early dissolution, the call decree is published the day after its issuance and the elections are held 54 days later.
This makes the end of November a possible window if Sánchez decided to immediately activate the electoral calendar. November 29 could be an electoral date if the call decree were announced this weekend and published on October 6.
The precedent of 2023 also shows that a president can react quickly to an adverse political outcome: Sánchez announced the dissolution of the Cortes the day after the municipal and regional elections on May 28, and the decree was approved on the 29th and published on the 30th.
Reaching 2027 or resetting before
The decision would also have a strategic dimension due to the calendar awaiting the PSOE. The municipal elections and a good part of the regional elections will be held in May 2027, so general elections before the end of this year would separate both electoral cycles.
An advance would allow the general elections to be resolved before that territorial battle. This does not allow anticipating whether the result would benefit or harm the PSOE electorally nor what the outcome of an election would be, but it would completely alter the political calendar with which the parties would prepare for the municipal and regional elections.
The alternative for Sánchez is to continue. Losing the decrees does not force him to resign, does not trigger elections, and does not alone demonstrate that he has lost parliamentary confidence. He can maintain the Government, negotiate each vote, and try to rebuild bridges with Junts.
The difference from the previous hours is that this Friday no longer begins with an uncertainty about Puigdemont's vote. Junts has said no. If that rejection ends up causing the fall of the two decrees, it will be Sánchez who has to decide what interpretation he makes of the defeat and how much leeway he considers he has left in the legislature.