The migratory crisis of Ceuta once again places the Government before an uncomfortable question: how many people really entered the city during the avalanche of July 30 and 31?
The Minister of Territorial Policy, Ángel Víctor Torres, raised this Monday to about 80,000 people the number of those who arrived in Ceuta during the emergency and described what happened as a "tremendous emergency." However, later government sources clarified that the official figure remains 72,000 people, the balance that had already been provided by the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska.
The difference is 8,000 people. But beyond the numerical discrepancy, the episode reveals that the Executive has still not closed a single narrative about the exact dimension of the largest migratory crisis suffered by Ceuta in decades.
The city also remains in an exceptional situation. The president of Ceuta, Juan Jesús Vivas, estimates that between 8,000 and 11,000 people still remain in the city, an estimate that corresponds to the regional administration and should not be confused with the official balance of the Government.
Torres speaks of 80,000 and the Government maintains 72,000
The controversy began with the statements made by Torres after his visit to Ceuta.
The minister placed at 80,000 the people who had arrived in the city during the days of July 30 and 31 and used the figure to explain the extraordinary magnitude of the emergency. The population of Ceuta is precisely around that magnitude, so the comparison allows understanding the impact that the permanence of all the newcomers would have had in the city.
But the Government has not officially modified the balance.
The figure maintained by the Executive is the one communicated by Grande-Marlaska on August 4: 72,000 people entered Ceuta and about 70,000 had already left Spanish territory. The Minister of the Interior explained then that those who did not have the right to remain would be expelled according to the legislation.
Therefore, the figure of 80,000 should be attributed to Torres and the figure of 72,000 should be presented as the official data maintained by the Government.
It is not correct to state that the Executive has officially revised the balance upwards. Nor that it has demonstrated that the figure provided by Torres is incorrect. What is confirmed is that two different figures have come from the Government itself and that subsequently the figure of 72,000 has been maintained as official.
More than 70,000 people have already returned to Morocco
The magnitude of the emergency is also understood by the speed with which the return occurred.
According to the balance offered by Marlaska, around 70,000 of the 72,000 people counted had already left Spain a few days after the massive entry. The Government attributed a fundamental part of this evolution to cooperation with Morocco.
This has allowed avoiding that the city had to assume for weeks an additional population equivalent practically to the totality of its inhabitants.
But the departure of tens of thousands of people has not resolved the crisis.
Attention is now focused on those who remain in Ceuta, especially on unaccompanied minors and on people who continue to live in precarious conditions.
Between 8,000 and 11,000 people would still be in Ceuta, according to Vivas
Juan Jesús Vivas has placed the number of people still remaining in the autonomous city between 8,000 and 11,000.
This is an estimate from the Ceuta president, not a new official balance from the Government. Vivas has used this figure to demand from the central Executive a state plan that allows recovering normality and more resources to face the consequences of the massive entry.
The president of Ceuta considers that the situation continues to be "unsustainable" and has requested, among other measures, more resources for the areas of Foreign Affairs, Justice, Police, and Security Forces.
He has also demanded the creation of a Center for the Internment of Foreigners and a state coordination system that allows addressing a crisis that, in his opinion, far exceeds the response capacity of the autonomous Administration.
Vivas's claim thus introduces a second battle: after controlling the entry and facilitating the return of the majority, how to recover normality in a city that still bears the consequences of the avalanche.
Minors, the main pending problem
The situation of unaccompanied foreign minors has become one of the main problems of the crisis.
The Government had counted 1,342 minors until August 7, according to the Minister of Youth and Childhood, Sira Rego. The figure has subsequently been around 1,400 in Torres's statements.
Here it is also important to differentiate the figures: 1,342 is the last concrete data communicated by Rego, while the approximately 1,400 identifications mentioned by Torres are a rounded figure later.
The Government has decided to prioritize the family reunification of those minors whose parents can be identified and claim their return, always with the corresponding guarantees.
At the same time, it is preparing the distribution of minors among the autonomous communities once the reception capacity of Ceuta has been exceeded.
Minister Sira Rego has called a technical meeting with the communities to address the situation. The autonomous communities governed by the PP have confirmed their participation, while Vox has rejected attending. The meeting will serve as a preliminary step to a Sectorial Conference scheduled for the end of August.
The Government reinforces resources in Ceuta
The Executive's response has also involved reinforcing the personnel assigned to manage the emergency.
Torres announced an increase in administrative staff and security personnel. The Government is also studying the possibility of enabling new spaces to care for the minors and has proposed family reunification as one of the main ways to reduce pressure on the reception network.
The health situation has not normalized either.
The Medical College of Ceuta has warned about the pressure that the University Hospital is under and has called for the sending of professionals from other areas of Spain. The organization argues that the reinforcement cannot rely on extending the working hours of the doctors already working in the city.
It is one of the indicators that the emergency did not end with the closure of the border.
The Government denies that there was a prior alert from the CNI
The crisis has also opened a second controversy: whether Spain received prior information that would allow anticipating an entry of this magnitude.
Grande-Marlaska has assured that the National Intelligence Center did not issue a prior alert about an operation of these characteristics. The minister defended that there was no information that would allow predicting the magnitude that the movement of people towards the Ceuta border would reach.
The issue is now part of the parliamentary offensive of the opposition.
The PP has requested explanations from the ministers involved in managing the crisis and has summoned Fernando Grande-Marlaska, Margarita Robles, and José Manuel Albares in the Senate. The appearances are scheduled between August 12 and 17.
In addition, the Government has announced appearances of several ministers in Congress at the end of August to explain their actions during the emergency.
Social networks, a new line of research
To the discussion about the figures and the actions of the Security Forces, another question is now added: what role did social networks play in the mobilization of thousands of people towards Ceuta.
An investigation published this Tuesday points to the dissemination of messages that presented the border as open and that would have contributed to generating the perception that it was possible to cross into Spanish territory.
Among the analyzed contents are messages disseminated by TikTok, Instagram, and WhatsApp that would have distorted legal information and fueled the idea that the border could be crossed. The existence of digital groups used to share logistical information has also been investigated.
These data do not allow us to affirm that there was a state operation behind the avalanche, nor to attribute to a specific country the organization of the crossings. That conclusion would require evidence that, for now, has not been provided.
They do allow, however, to raise a relevant question for border security: to what extent can social networks turn a rumor into a massive mobilization in a matter of hours.
It is a matter that transcends immigration and directly enters the realm of national and European security.
The political pressure now shifts to Madrid
The emergency has ceased to be solely a management problem on the ground.
The PP wants the Government to explain in parliamentary session how the massive entry occurred, what information the security services had, how the response was coordinated with Morocco, and what measures have been adopted to prevent it from happening again.
The Executive defends, for its part, that the situation was contained and that the collaboration with Morocco allowed the vast majority of the people who crossed to return in a few days.
The discussion about the figures now adds another element to the debate.
72,000 is the official balance. 80,000 is the figure publicly offered by Torres. Between both there is a difference of 8,000 people.
While the Government maintains that the official data has not changed, Ceuta continues to face the consequences of a massive entry that overwhelmed its reception capacity and forced the mobilization of extraordinary resources.
The crisis, therefore, has entered a new phase. The border is closed, tens of thousands of people have returned to Morocco and the Executive considers the emergency controlled. But normality has not yet returned to Ceuta.
And there are three questions left to answer that will mark the coming weeks: what exactly happened during those hours, why Spain could not anticipate a mobilization of such magnitude, and how to prevent it from happening again.