Sweden may know tonight who has won the elections and take quite a bit longer to know who will govern.
The reason lies in its parliamentary system and in a political fragmentation that turns the result of several medium and small parties into something almost as important as that of the large ones.
The Riksdag has 349 members.
175 constitute an absolute majority.
But a candidate for prime minister does not need 175 favorable votes.
They need to prevent 175 members from voting against them. This is known as Swedish negative parliamentarism.
This difference opens many combinations.
Scenario 1: the right wins and the Sweden Democrats enter the Government for the first time
This is the most historically significant political scenario.
Ulf Kristersson has opened the door to transforming the formula used since 2022.
So far, the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals govern, while the Sweden Democrats support the Executive from the outside.
If the four parties obtain a majority, Kristersson intends to form a more stable Government and SD demands to participate directly in it.
This would mean ministers from the Sweden Democrats for the first time.
And it would culminate in just four years the transition from external support party to formal member of the executive power.
What policies would change
Probably less than what the institutional change suggests in some areas.
SD has already conditioned immigration and criminal policy.
The Government has restricted immigration, toughened penalties, and expanded police tools.
But having ministries would allow the party to intervene directly in the execution of policies, appointments, and budget preparation.
The battle for Interior, Justice, Migration, or Culture would be especially significant.
There is still no announced ministerial distribution.
Scenario 2: the right wins and SD clearly surpasses the Moderates
This is perfectly possible.
The final polls place both parties practically tied and several place SD ahead.
Formally, Kristersson continues to be the agreed candidate for prime minister.
Politically, however, a result in which Åkesson scores several points over the Moderates would have consequences.
The largest party in the bloc might wonder why it should settle for a secondary role.
Reuters points out that a clear advantage of SD over M would weaken Kristersson's ability to dominate the new Executive.
That is why the internal result of the right matters even if together they exceed 175.
Scenario 3: Andersson gets 175 or more and returns to power
This is the scenario that most polls still suggest.
Magdalena Andersson was prime minister for ten months before the 2022 elections and could return four years later.
Her party will almost certainly return to being the most voted.
The problem is around.
To build a majority, she needs to somehow combine the votes of Social Democrats, Greens, Center, and Left.
And between Center and Left, there is a significant incompatibility.
The problem for Andersson: winning without having a coalition
The Center Party rejects a government that includes the Left Party.
The Left, for its part, believes that its support must translate into real political participation and wants to be inside.
Andersson has avoided completely closing the formula before voting.
This allows her to maximize votes.
Afterwards, it can become a puzzle.
She can attempt a social democratic minority government.
She can integrate the Greens.
She can seek abstentions from the Center.
She can negotiate budgetary support with the Left.
What is much more difficult is to simultaneously satisfy everyone.
Scenario 4: the Liberals fall below 4% and overturn the election
This is the mathematical bomb of the night.
The Liberals obtained 16 deputies in 2022.
For months they seemed destined to disappear from the Riksdag.
They have risen in the last week to around 5%.
But the margin continues to be small.
The rule is clear: with less than 4% nationally, they are out of the general distribution of seats, unless they reach the exceptional 12% in a constituency.
This would mean that hundreds of thousands of right-wing votes would not produce national representation.
And it could hand the majority to Andersson even if the two blocks were practically tied in votes.
Scenario 5: 175-174 and Sweden goes to sleep without a sure winner
The latest Ipsos produces exactly this situation.
175 for the opposition.
174 for the government block.
With a difference of one seat, a few thousand votes can alter the final distribution.
The Electoral Authority will carry out a provisional distribution tonight, but the definitive count begins on Monday and is not expected to finish until the following weekend.
If the result is on the edge, no prudent leader should proclaim an irreversible majority too soon.
Andersson can also win and not be invested
This is a possibility that is often lost when talking about "blocks".
Let’s assume that S, V, MP, and C add more deputies than the right.
That does not automatically force the Center to support a Government with participation from the Left.
And to be elected prime minister, Andersson must avoid 175 votes against.
She may need a negotiated abstention.
Sweden has recent experience in minority Governments that survive precisely thanks to abstentions from parties that are not part of them.
Kristersson also does not need 175 votes in favor
The same works in reverse.
The conservative candidate could be prime minister without obtaining 175 yes votes if his opponents do not gather 175 no votes.
That’s how he reached the head of Government after the 2022 elections, although on that occasion he did gather 176 favorable votes against 173 opposed.
That’s why it’s advisable to differentiate three figures tonight.
Most voted party.
Block with the most seats.
And candidate capable of surviving a parliamentary vote.
They do not always have to point to exactly the same thing.
What it would mean for SD to come in second
It already happened in 2022.
The Swedish Democrats obtained 73 deputies, compared to 68 from the Moderates, and became the second force in the country.
Still, Kristersson was prime minister.
The difference in 2026 is that Åkesson no longer wants to limit himself to supporting him from the outside.
The same electoral position can now produce much more institutional power.
What a social democratic victory would mean
It would not simply be a return to 2022.
Swedish politics on immigration and crime has changed during these four years.
The social democrats have also hardened on both issues.
Therefore, a victory for Andersson would not automatically restore the political model prior to the arrival of the Tidö agreement.
The most visible change would likely be in welfare, taxation, climate, and the composition of the Government.
What result would really be a defeat for the far right
It is not enough to look at whether SD rises or falls by a few tenths.
Their strategic objective is to enter the Executive.
They can lose percentage compared to the 20.54% of 2022 and at the same time achieve their greatest political victory if the right achieves a majority and obtains ministries.
They can also improve their power within the block if they clearly surpass the Moderates again.
And they can again be left out of the Executive even while maintaining around one in five votes if Andersson achieves the parliamentary majority.
The five pieces of information that will decide tonight
| Data | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| 175 seats | Marks the absolute majority of the Riksdag |
| Liberals: 4% | Below this, they may be left out of the national distribution |
| SD against M | Determines the internal balance of the right |
| C against V | Conditions Andersson's ability to form a Government |
| Difference between blocks | If it is one or two seats, the result may remain open |
Tonight the election may end and a negotiation may begin
If one of the two blocks gains a wide advantage, Sweden will have a fairly clear direction before midnight.
If a 175-174 appears, the story will be different.
And if Andersson wins but his potential partners maintain their crossed vetoes, the electoral result will not immediately resolve who enters the Government.
That is the peculiarity of the Swedish elections of 2026.
The right can make history by including the Swedish Democrats in the Council of Ministers.
The left can return to power after four years.
And a party that hovers just around 5% may end up deciding which of the two things happens.