The first three polls published after the Urda rail tragedy coincide in one movement: all three give the PSOE less vote than in their previous release. They differ on how much it would cost them in Congress. Sigma Dos takes away eight deputies, SocioMétrica takes away two, and NC Report keeps its range unchanged. Demócrata’s average goes from 105.3 to 102 seats for the socialists: a loss of 3.3 deputies.
On the other side of the chamber, the right moves from an average of 201 to 204 seats, 28 above an absolute majority. There is more agreement on the size of that majority than on its evolution: SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos place it at 203 deputies and NC Report’s midpoint is 206. But, of the three, only the first two give it more seats than the previous week.
| Institute | PSOE: before → now | Change | Right: before → now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica | 108 → 106 | −2 | 200 → 203 | +3 |
| NC Report | 101 → 101 | 0 | 207 → 206 | −1 |
| Sigma Dos | 107 → 99 | −8 | 196 → 203 | +7 |
| Demócrata average | 105,3 → 102 | −3,3 | 201 → 204 | +3 |
The PSOE falls in all three polls, but only Sigma Dos puts it at 99
The sharpest drop appears in the Sigma Dos study for El Mundo. Its 2,505 interviews were carried out on October 29 and 30, entirely after the accident. The PSOE goes from 26.1% to 24.6% and from 107 to 99 deputies in the scenario the newspaper considers most probable. Its range, from 97 to 103, still includes results above one hundred.
SocioMétrica, for El Español, records a smaller setback: the PSOE falls from 27% to 26.6% and from 108 to 106 deputies. Its tracking accumulates interviews since September and gives more weight to the recent ones. NC Report, for La Razón, places the socialists at 25.6%, two tenths less, but repeats its range of 100 to 102 seats. Its fieldwork began on October 26, before Urda, and ended on the 29th.
That difference matters. If only SocioMétrica and NC Report are taken, the average socialist loss is one deputy. If Sigma Dos is included, it rises to 3.3. The drop in vote appears in all three polls; the magnitude of the parliamentary loss depends much more on which poll is looked at.
Feijóo widens his lead from 5.5 to 6.4 points, although the PP barely rises in the average
The PP’s main gain is the distance it opens up with the PSOE. The popular average barely moves: it goes from 31.8% to 32.0%. The socialist one does clearly fall in the comparison, from 26.3% to 25.6%. Calculated before rounding, Feijóo’s lead increases from 5.5 to 6.4 points.
| Institute | PP | PSOE | Vox |
|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica | 32.0% → 32.2% | 27.0% → 26.6% | 18.6% → 19.1% |
| NC Report | 32.9% → 32.6% | 25.8% → 25.6% | 19.0% → 19.3% |
| Sigma Dos | 30.6% → 31.1% | 26.1% → 24.6% | 19.9% → 19.3% |
| Demócrata average | 31.8% → 32.0% | 26.3% → 25.6% | 19.2% → 19.2% |
Sigma Dos gives the PP ten more deputies and Vox three fewer. In SocioMétrica both grow: the PP by two and Vox by one. NC Report draws the opposite movement to that of Sigma Dos: the popular range falls three seats at both ends and Vox’s rises two.
In fact, the combined percentage published for PP and Vox barely varies in the average of the three studies: from 51.0% to 51.2%. The right gains more ground in the seat projection than in vote. And the PSOE’s drop is not enough to claim that its former voters have moved directly to the PP or Vox.
How Demócrata calculates the change after Urda
Demócrata compares each poll with the previous delivery from the same institute and gives all three the same weight. For the seats it uses the figure published by SocioMétrica, the most likely scenario identified by Sigma Dos and the midpoint of NC Report’s ranges. In this last case, 101 is the arithmetic reference of the Socialist interval from 100 to 102, not an additional prediction from the pollster.