The PSOE improves slightly, but the gap with the PP remains wide. The new Sigma Dos barometer for El Mundo, corresponding to November 9, places the socialists 5.8 points behind the conservatives and maintains a parliamentary majority on the right at twenty days before the general elections of 29N.
The fieldwork was carried out between October 30 and November 6, with 4,172 interviews. It covers both days before and after the resignation of Óscar Puente.
What comes out in Sigma Dos: 131 seats for the PP, 105 for the PSOE, and 68 for Vox
The PP would retain first position with 31% of the vote. El Mundo places its most probable result at 131 seats, within a range of between 131 and 137.
The PSOE would obtain 25.2% and a central estimate of 105 seats, with an interval of between 101 and 106. Vox would reach 19.4% and 68 representatives, within a range of between 62 and 70.
The central figures are those indicated by the text of El Mundo. The ranges correspond to each party and their extremes should not be added up as if they described a single scenario.
PP and Vox would gather 199 seats, 23 more than the 176 needed for the absolute majority. The PSOE would be 26 representatives behind the PP. The sum of the parties that backed Sánchez’s investiture in 2023 would reach, according to the grouping used by the newspaper, 148 seats: 28 below the absolute majority.
ERC and PNV would improve compared to 23J and Adelante Andalucía would enter with three seats
The central estimate described by El Mundo gives eight seats to ERC, six to the PNV, and two to the BNG. Each of those formations would gain one representative compared with the general elections of 2023.
EH Bildu would keep six and Coalición Canaria would keep one. Junts would go back from seven to five, while Adelante Andalucía would enter Congress with three seats.
In the space of the Frente Amplio, the material published presents a difference between the text and the chart: the former records 8.1% and 15 deputies, while the infographic shows 6.5% and a range of between nine and eleven. We can, according to the text of the poll, say that in the central estimate it would be left without representation.
Difference from the previous poll: the PSOE wins by six tenths and cuts the PP lead
The previous installment, published by Sigma Dos on November 2, placed the PP at 31.1%, the PSOE at 24.6% and Vox at 19.3%. Compared with those figures, the populars lose one tenth, the socialists gain six, and Vox moves forward by another.
The distance between PP and PSOE decreases from 6.5 to 5.8 points. However, the sum of PP and Vox remains exactly at 50.4%: the tenth that the populars lose is offset by the one that Vox gains.
In representation, the ranges also show the socialist recovery. The PSOE goes from an interval of 97–103 seats to another of 101–106. The PP drops from 133–139 to 131–137, while Vox goes from 63–69 to 62–70.
The transfers: the PSOE recovers support from Sumar, but loses voters to the right
The poll estimates that 8.3% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would now lean toward the PP and another 4% toward Vox. El Mundo translates those proportions into approximately 960,000 electors between both formations.
At the same time, the PSOE would capture 22.8% of the voters of Sumar in 2023. Another 8.7% of that electorate would opt for Podemos. These are movements that help to explain the socialist recovery and the weakness of the space located to its left, although they should not be confused with electoral results already produced.
In the assessment of leaders, Feijóo gets a four out of ten, Abascal 3.4 and Sánchez 3.1. Abascal receives the highest score among his own voters, 7.7, compared with the 6.9 that PP voters give to Feijóo and the six that PSOE voters give to Sánchez.
Comparison with 23J: Vox would win 35 seats and the PSOE would lose 16
With regard to the 2023 general elections, Vox concentrates the greatest growth among the three main forces. It would go from 12.4% to 19.4% and from 33 to 68 seats: seven points more and an increase of 35 representatives.
The PSOE would fall back from 31.7% to 25.2% and from 121 to 105 seats. The PP would drop from 33.1% to 31% and from 137 to 131 deputies, according to the figures attributed to the popular party in the publication.
See here the technical sheet and the full survey in El Mundo