The latest NC Report poll for La Razón, with fieldwork between November 2 and 5, places the PP as the leading force with 32.6% of the votes and between 136 and 138 seats. The PSOE would be in second position, with 25.6% and a representation of between 99 and 101 parliamentarians.
The distance between the two parties reaches seven percentage points. In seats, the published ranges place the popular advantage between 35 and 39 deputies. The PSOE would thus be around the barrier of one hundred representatives, without the poll allowing a specific figure within that range to be considered certain.
Vox would obtain 19.3% of the votes and between 67 and 69 seats. Its representation would exceed double the 33 seats achieved in the elections of July 2023. The growth of Abascal is the main difference between that Congress and the scenario that NC Report outlines now.
| Party | Vote estimate | Seats |
|---|---:|---:|
| PP | 32.6% | 136–138 |
| PSOE | 25.6% | 99–101 |
| Vox | 19.3% | 67–69 |
| Frente Amplio | 6.9% | 9–10 |
| Podemos | 2.4% | 0–1 |
| ERC | 2.0% | 7–8 |
| Junts | 1.8% | 8–9 |
| EH Bildu | 1.4% | 6–7 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 1.2% | 2–3 |
| PNV | 0.9% | 4–5 |
| BNG | 0.8% | 2 |
| UPN | 0.4% | 2 |
| Coalición Canaria | 0.4% | 1 |
Source: NC Report chart for La Razón provided, dated November 8. The individual ranges do not constitute a single and simultaneous allocation of the 350 seats.
PP and Vox keep a large majority, with UPN counted separately
PP and Vox would gather 51.9% of the votes. The sum of the extremes of their ranges yields between 203 and 207 seats: even the lower end exceeds absolute majority by 27 seats.
The infographic assigns two additional representatives to UPN, separated from the PP. If they are added to that total, the bloc would reach between 205 and 209 seats. This distinction prevents confusing the results of the PP with those of a territorial candidacy that the chart presents independently.
Frente Amplio, for its part, would obtain 6.9% and between nine and ten seats. Podemos would reach 2.4%, but would move between zero and one seat. These are different candidacies from the coalition Sumar that ran in 2023, so the comparison requires taking that fragmentation into account.
What changes with respect to the previous NC Report
The main movement is in the PP, which goes from 33% to 32.6%. The PSOE remains at 25.6% and Vox repeats 19.3%. The popular advantage over the socialists therefore narrows, from 7.4 to seven points: the shift comes from the fall of the PP, without an increase in the socialist percentage. The consulted records from the previous poll match those percentages.
In parliamentary representation, the conservatives move from 140–142 to 136–138 deputies. The PSOE falls from 100–102 to 99–101 and Vox improves from 66–68 to 67–69. These are shifts at the ends of the ranges, not closed results.
| Party | Previous vote | Current vote | Change | Previous seats | Current seats |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| PP | 33.0% | 32.6% | −0.4 points | 140–142 | 136–138 |
| PSOE | 25.6% | 25.6% | No change | 100–102 | 99–101 |
| Vox | 19.3% | 19.3% | No change | 66–68 | 67–69 |
| Broad Front | 6.9% | 6.9% | No change | 9–10 | 9–10 |
| Podemos | 2.4% | 2.4% | No change | 0–1 | 0–1 |
The combined total of PP and Vox falls from 206–210 to 203–207 seats. The bloc retains a large majority, although it loses four tenths of the joint vote, from 52.3% to 51.9%. These movements describe the evolution between polls; by themselves, they do not allow isolating the electoral effect of the Urda accident or of the resignation of Óscar Puente.
Comparison with 23J: Vox concentrates the growth of the right
Regarding the July 2023 elections, the PP would lose approximately half a percentage point of vote and remain around its 137 deputies. The PSOE would retreat 6.1 points and between 20 and 22 seats. Vox would advance 6.9 points and gain between 34 and 36 representatives. The comparison uses the final results of the 23J and percentages rounded to one decimal.
| Party | Vote 23J | Current NC Report | Difference | Seats 23J | Current seats | Difference |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| PP | 33.1% | 32.6% | −0.5 points | 137 | 136–138 | −1 to +1 |
| PSOE | 31.7% | 25.6% | −6.1 points | 121 | 99–101 | −22 to −20 |
| Vox | 12.4% | 19.3% | +6.9 points | 33 | 67–69 | +34 to +36 |
The scenario does not show an equivalent expansion of the two right-wing parties. The PP would remain close to its 2023 result, while Vox would take on the big parliamentary leap. That would increase Abascal’s weight in a possible government negotiation.
Vox retains more voters and captures support from the PP and the PSOE
The vote transfer matrix offers another explanation of the result. Vox would retain 88.8% of its 2023 voters, compared with 81.3% for the PP and 69.5% for the PSOE. In addition, 14.1% of those who voted for the conservatives would now opt for Abascal.
The PSOE would face defections to both parties: 10.4% of its former electors would choose the PP and 7% would choose Vox, according to published data. In turn, the socialists would capture 18.6% of those who backed Sumar. These are estimated transfers based on recall of how people voted, not observed movements of specific individuals.
In Sumar’s former electorate, 41.8% would opt for Frente Amplio and 16.8% for Podemos. The dispersion helps explain the parliamentary weakness of that space, although the translation into seats also depends on where its votes are concentrated.
Feijóo leads the rating, but none of the candidates reaches five
Feijóo gets the highest score among the four leaders included in the chart: 4.3 out of ten. Next come Pedro Sánchez, with 3.5; Santiago Abascal, with 3.4; and Ada Colau, with 2.6.
The age breakdown introduces a contrast: Abascal surpasses Sánchez among those under 45 years old, while the socialist leader gets better scores in the two higher-age groups. Feijóo heads the rating in all the bands covered by NC Report.
See here the technical sheet and the full survey in La Razón