The PP would win the regional elections again in the Community of Valencia, but the PSPV-PSOE would have more difficulties in maintaining the second position. The Sigma Dos survey published by EL MUNDO reduces the distance between the socialists and Compromís to half a point, with 22.3% and 21.8% of voting intention, respectively.
The poll, conducted from interviews carried out between October 1 and 6, also projects a decline for the two main parties that govern or have governed the community: the PP would fall back compared to the 2023 elections and the PSPV-PSOE would lose between six and eight deputies. Vox, for its part, would increase its representation.
Compromís approaches the socialists
The estimate leaves a reduced difference between the PSPV-PSOE of Diana Morant and the Valencianist formation. The socialists would obtain between 23 and 25 seats, compared to the 31 they achieved in the 2023 regional elections. Their voting percentage would also drop by nearly two points compared to the previous Sigma Dos poll published in May.
The territorial distribution reinforces the position of Compromís in the province of Valencia. There, the coalition would achieve between eleven and twelve deputies, compared to the nine or ten attributed to the PSPV-PSOE.
| Party | Voting intention | Estimated seats | Seats in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 32% | 33-36 | 40 |
| PSPV-PSOE | 22.3% | 23-25 | 31 |
| Compromís | 21.8% | Not specified in the provided data | — |
| Vox | 17.5% | 16-18 | 13 |
The matrix of electoral transfers indicates that Compromís could capture part of the socialist vote from 2023: 13.1% of those who then chose the PSPV-PSOE would now lean towards the Valencianist coalition. Additionally, 14.5% of former socialist voters remain undecided, according to the study.
The PP leads and Vox increases its representation
The PP candidacy led by Juanfran Pérez Llorca would stand at 32% of the votes and achieve between 33 and 36 deputies. The range is below the 40 representatives obtained by the popular party in 2023, although they would maintain a lead of 9.7 points over the PSPV-PSOE.
Vox would rise to 17.5% and reach between 16 and 18 seats, compared to the 13 it achieved in the last regional elections. The survey estimates that the party would retain 80.9% of its former voters and would also receive 11.7% of those who supported the PP in those elections.
The ranges of both parties add up arithmetically between 49 and 54 deputies. The absolute majority of the Valencian Courts is set at 50 seats, so that calculation does not ensure that PP and Vox reach that threshold in all scenarios. It is the sum of the individual intervals, not a joint range attributed to Sigma Dos.
Baldoví obtains the best rating among the leaders
Joan Baldoví tops the rating of the four analyzed leaders, with an average score of 4.2 out of ten. He is followed by Pérez Llorca, with a 4.1; Diana Morant, with a 3.7; and José María Llanos, with a 3.2.
Regarding the preference to preside over the Generalitat, Pérez Llorca occupies the first position, with 29.9%. Baldoví obtains 21.4% and Morant, 20.5%.
Check the original Sigma Dos survey published by EL MUNDO, including its technical sheet.