Abrupt change in weather: AEMET forecasts heavy rains, a possible DANA, and a drop in temperatures

The so-called "National Civil Protection Plan against adverse meteorological phenomena" has already passed its state processing phase. The instrument that materializes this "plan" is the Basic Planning Guideline for Civil Protection against the risk of adverse meteorological phenomena, which was approved by the Council of Ministers on April 21, 2026 and published in the Official State Gazette on April 27, 2026, so it is fully in force.

Identification of the instrument and competent body

Although the public debate refers to a "national plan," legally we are dealing with a basic planning guideline of the National Civil Protection System. This fits with the logic of Law 17/2015 of the National Civil Protection System, which provides for state guidelines for specific risks (floods, fires, meteorological phenomena, etc.).

The driving and competent body is the Ministry of the Interior, through the General Secretariat of Civil Protection and Emergencies and the Directorate General of Civil Protection and Emergencies. The text was first processed within the National Civil Protection Council, where the new basic guidelines were worked on and agreed upon with the autonomous communities and the FEMP.

Main milestones of the processing

• March 24, 2026: the National Civil Protection Council approves the processing of four basic planning guidelines, including the one related to adverse meteorological phenomena. This was a unanimous agreement after more than a year of joint technical work between the Interior Ministry, autonomous communities, and other organizations. This milestone closes the technical and political coordination phase in the coordination body of the National Civil Protection System.
• April 21, 2026: the Council of Ministers formally approves the Agreement approving the Basic Planning Guideline for Civil Protection against the risk of adverse meteorological phenomena. The Interior Ministry presents it as part of a "catalog of protection measures for the population against risks derived from the climate emergency" and as a central piece to strengthen planning against extreme episodes.
• April 27, 2026: the agreement is published in the Official State Gazette through the Resolution of April 23, 2026, of the Undersecretariat, which publicizes the Council of Ministers' Agreement and annexes the full text of the basic guideline. It can be consulted in the Official State Gazette.

The agreement itself provides that it will take effect from the day after its publication in the Official State Gazette, that is, from April 28, 2026.

Current legal situation

With the approval by the Council of Ministers and its official publication, the processing of the "plan" at the state level is concluded. It is no longer in the draft, public hearing, or pending governmental approval phase: the guideline is a valid reference standard for civil protection planning against adverse meteorological phenomena.

Its nature is that of a basic technical and organizational framework, which:

• Establishes the common minimum criteria that administrations must follow in their special civil protection plans against these risks.
• Defines homogeneous methodologies for hazard, vulnerability, and risk analysis, and zoning requirements.
• Sets the essential elements of early warning systems, population information, and coordinated use of warnings from AEMET and other services.
• Details the organization and coordination among state, regional, and local levels within the National Civil Protection System.

Next steps: territorial implementation

Once the basic guideline is approved, the "processing" that remains is no longer of the state norm, but of its practical deployment:

• Autonomous communities: must adapt or develop their special civil protection plans against adverse meteorological phenomena according to the guideline's criteria (risk analysis, activation levels, command structure, warning mechanisms, etc.).
• Local entities (municipalities, provincial councils, island councils): depending on regional regulations, they develop and approve their municipal or supra-municipal plans, integrated into regional plans and consistent with the state guideline.
• Implementation and review: the guideline foresees obligations for implementation, maintenance, and periodic evaluation of the plans, implying continuous processes of training, drills, protocol updates, and risk zoning review.

Therefore, if the question refers to the status of the state norm that serves as a framework, it can be said today that the processing is closed and the guideline in force. The focus now shifts to the implementation by autonomous communities and local administrations, which must adapt their civil protection plans to comply with this common framework against heavy rains, snowfalls, winds, heat and cold waves, coastal phenomena, and other adverse meteorological episodes.

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) is the National Meteorological Service of Spain and its current regime is mainly set out in Royal Decree 299/2026, of April 8, which approves its Statute, issued under the Law 40/2015, on the Legal Regime of the Public Sector. AEMET is configured as a state agency (a public law entity with its own legal personality and management autonomy) attached to the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, through the Secretary of State for the Environment.

Nature, purposes, and role as meteorological authority

According to Article 1 of the Statute, the object of AEMET is:

• To develop, implement, and provide the meteorological services under the State's competence.
• To generate climate information and services.
• To support the exercise of other public policies and private activities, contributing to the safety of people and property and sustainable development.

In executing state public policies in meteorology and climatology, two major blocks of competencies are attributed:

• Management of the State public meteorological service: meeting the basic meteorological and climatic information needs of society; supporting competent institutions in civil protection, defense, and state security; exercising the State meteorological authority and maintaining essential networks and infrastructures.
• Provision of value-added meteorological and climatological services and consultancy to public and private entities.

Article 3 reinforces this role by recognizing AEMET as the National Meteorological Service and the State meteorological authority, with the necessary administrative powers (except expropriation) to fulfill its purposes. Additionally, it is assigned the management of the fee for the provision of meteorological services provided for in Law 13/1996.

In the field of air navigation, AEMET is the exclusive provider of meteorological support services for air navigation throughout the airspace under Spanish responsibility, in accordance with European Union law and Law 21/2003 on Air Safety. It also holds the status of meteorological service provider under the Chicago Convention on international civil aviation.

Substantive competencies and functions (Article 8 of the Statute)

Article 8 of the 2026 Statute details a broad list of competencies and functions, among which stand out:

• General information and warnings: preparation, supply, and dissemination of meteorological information and forecasts of general interest for the public throughout the territory, as well as the issuance of warnings of adverse phenomena that may affect the safety of people and property.
• Support for air and maritime navigation: provision of meteorological services necessary to ensure the safety, regularity, and efficiency of air traffic and the safety of maritime traffic.
• Support to Defense and Security: supply of meteorological information and specific support to the Armed Forces, national defense, and the State Security Forces and Corps, under agreed terms.
• Advisory on variability and climate change: scientific advisory services to Public Administrations for the design and execution of environmental policies related to variability and climate change.
• Climatological and value-added services: provision to administrations, organizations, and public and private entities of high value-added meteorological and climatic services, adapted to specific sectors (energy, agriculture, transport, insurance, etc.), through agreements, licenses, or contracts.
• Atmospheric surveillance: maintenance of continuous, effective, and sustainable surveillance of meteorological and climatic conditions and the physical and chemical structure and composition of the atmosphere over the state territory.
• Climatic records and data: conservation and updating of the historical record of meteorological and climatological data, as well as management of an open national climate information registry, fed by networks of various administrations.
• Observation networks and infrastructures: establishment, development, management, and maintenance of observation networks, systems, and technical infrastructures necessary to provide the Agency's services.
• Research, development, and innovation: conducting studies and research in atmospheric sciences, developing techniques and applications to improve knowledge of weather and climate, and collaborating in R&D&i projects with other national and international organizations.
• International representation: representing Spain in international meteorological organizations, particularly the World Meteorological Organization, EUMETSAT, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; participation in Eumetnet and international technical cooperation projects.
• Compliance with international commitments: execution of commitments assumed by Spain in WMO programs and other organizations, including those related to the international exchange of meteorological data and products.
• Training, documentation, and dissemination: training and communication activities in meteorology and climatology, to meet national and international needs.
• Development cooperation: contribution to the planning and execution of international development cooperation in meteorology and climatology.
• Climate change scenarios and climate services: preparation and updating of climate change scenarios and provision of climate services for adaptation and planning of public and private policies.
• Consultancy and technical assistance: carrying out consultancy and technical assistance work within its scope of competence.
• Residual functions and internal support: exercise of any other competence related to its object legally or regulatorily assigned, including supervision of its construction projects.

Overall, the legal framework positions AEMET as a central actor in meteorological and climatic risk management, in providing information for public and private decision-making, and in fulfilling Spain's international obligations in meteorology and climatology.

In Spain, there is no isolated "meteorological alerts law," but rather a civil protection framework that establishes who can issue official warnings, under what conditions, and how they must coordinate with emergency authorities and the population. Alerts from AEMET and regional services are integrated into this system.

1. Basic legal framework

The main pillars are:

• Law 17/2015, of the National Civil Protection System: recognizes citizens' right to be informed about collective risks (art. 6), creates the National Information Network and the National Civil Protection Alert Network (arts. 9 and 12), and requires the inclusion of information and alert programs in civil protection plans.
• Royal Decree 524/2023, Basic Civil Protection Standard: sets the minimum content of civil protection plans, including information, alert, and communication systems, phases (pre-emergency, emergency, recovery), and operational situations 0, 1, 2, and 3.
• Basic Planning Guideline for Civil Protection against the risk of Adverse Meteorological Phenomena, approved by Council of Ministers Agreement (Resolution of April 23, 2026): establishes minimum criteria for special plans against adverse meteorological phenomena (AMP) and details the warning system.
• AEMET Statute (Royal Decree 299/2026): assigns to the Agency, among other functions, the "issuance of warnings and forecasts of meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and material goods," according to the National Plan for Prediction and Surveillance of AMPs.

2. Material requirements: what can be warned about and with what thresholds

The 2026 Basic Guideline and the National Plan for Prediction and Surveillance of Adverse Meteorological Phenomena define:

• What an AMP is: any meteorological event capable of producing, directly or indirectly, damage to people and property or significantly altering human activity in a given territorial area.
• Territorial scope and "warning zones": warnings are issued by isoclimatic zones or minimum warning units, defined in the National Plan. Communities with their own meteorological service may define their own warning units, coordinated with AEMET.
• Prior risk analysis: special plans must be based on:
  • probability and climatological frequency of each phenomenon (heavy rain, wind, snow, heat, cold, storms, etc.);
  • damages and impacts recorded in previous episodes;
  • exposure and vulnerability (total and vulnerable population, critical infrastructures, communication routes, essential services, heritage, etc.);
  • foreseeable emergency scenarios, also considering climate change and critical periods (summer, heat waves, snow episodes, large gatherings, etc.).
• Thresholds and warning levels: the Guideline refers to the National Plan for Prediction and Surveillance of AMPs to specify:
  • physical parameters (e.g., liters/m², wind gusts, snow depths, maximum/minimum temperatures, wave height);
  • warning levels or codes (color codes like yellow, orange, red) associated with different degrees of danger and probability.
  These thresholds are technical: they must be based on scientific knowledge and historical data, and AEMET and, where applicable, regional services are responsible for maintaining and applying them homogeneously.

3. Procedural and coordination requirements

Issuing an official meteorological alert is not an isolated act but part of the operability of civil protection plans:

• Integration into special and territorial plans (Law 17/2015 and Basic Standard):
  • plans must include "alert and information systems" and "early warning and information systems for the population";
  • activation of phases (pre-emergency, emergency, recovery) and operational situations 0–3 is linked to these warnings and their translation into civil protection decisions (road closures, class suspensions, etc.).
• National Civil Protection Alert Network (art. 12 Law 17/2015):
  • all bodies that can detect or foresee threats (AEMET and regional services, among others) must immediately communicate to the National Emergency Monitoring and Coordination Center situations that may lead to a civil protection emergency;
  • this network channels warnings to competent authorities to activate plans and measures.
• Coordination AEMET – autonomous communities – local scope:
  • AEMET and, where applicable, regional agencies must provide data and warnings to regional civil protection authorities for hazard analysis and planning;
  • regional plans identify which municipalities must have municipal action plans and how meteorological warnings are integrated into them;
  • the existence of management bodies, scientific-technical advisory, and public communication in each plan is foreseen, which use warnings as the basis for their decisions.

4. Public information obligations

Alongside technical requirements, there are clear dissemination duties:

• Right to information (art. 6 Law 17/2015): public authorities must adequately inform the population about significant collective risks, planned measures, and behaviors to follow, both preventively and during the emergency.
• Alert and information programs (art. 10 Law 17/2015 and Basic Standard): plans must include specific preventive communication and alert programs that:
  • allow citizens to adopt self-protection measures;
  • are accessible to people with disabilities and vulnerable groups.
• Collaboration of the media (art. 7.8 Law 17/2015): they are obliged to collaborate free of charge with authorities in disseminating preventive and operational information about risks and emergencies, as provided by the plans.
• Public and understandable risk maps: the AMP Guideline requires that risk and vulnerability maps be consultable by the public, with clear legends and accessibility tools (including "easy reading").

In summary, to issue an official meteorological alert in Spain, the following must concur: a competence basis (AEMET or competent regional body), integration into civil protection plans and the National AMP Plan, compliance with predefined technical thresholds and criteria, and immediate communication to civil protection and the population through the channels provided in Law 17/2015, the Basic Standard, and the Adverse Meteorological Phenomena Guideline.