The PP would be the party with the most seats in a good part of the territory, but Vox would expand its parliamentary presence and would surpass the popular party in Catalonia and the PSOE in Murcia. This is the scenario outlined by the Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO regarding the general elections on November 29, which projects 135 deputies for the PP, 103 for the PSOE, and 68 for Vox.
The territorial distribution also reflects a socialist setback in several communities and a reduction in the representation of Sumar, which would be left with nine seats across the country. The estimate is based on 2,017 interviews conducted between October 1 and 8, 2026.
The distribution of seats by autonomous communities
Andalusia would be one of the territories where the distance between PP and Vox would be reduced: the popular party would obtain 25 deputies and Santiago Abascal's formation, 16, compared to the 17 of the PSOE. In Castilla y León, the PP would maintain the first position with 16 seats, although Vox would reach seven and the socialists would be left with eight.
In Catalonia, the PSC would be the leading force with 16 deputies, followed by ERC, with nine. Vox would obtain seven seats, one more than the PP, which would be left with six. In Murcia, Abascal's formation would also surpass the PSOE, with three representatives compared to two.
| Autonomous community | Estimated seat distribution |
|---|---|
| Andalusia | PP: 25 · PSOE: 17 · Vox: 16 · Adelante Andalucía: 2 |
| Aragon | PP: 7 · PSOE: 3 · Vox: 2 · Sumar: 1 |
| Asturias | PP: 3 · PSOE: 3 · Vox: 1 |
| Balearic Islands | PP: 3 · PSOE: 2 · Vox: 2 · Sumar: 1 |
| Canary Islands | PP: 6 · PSOE: 6 · Vox: 2 · Coalición Canaria: 1 |
| Cantabria | PP: 2 · PSOE: 2 · Vox: 1 |
| Castilla-La Mancha | PP: 8 · PSOE: 7 · Vox: 6 |
| Castilla y León | PP: 16 · PSOE: 8 · Vox: 7 |
| Catalonia | PSOE: 16 · ERC: 9 · Vox: 7 · Junts: 7 · PP: 6 · Sumar: 2 · Podemos: 1 |
| Extremadura | PP: 4 · PSOE: 3 · Vox: 2 |
| Galicia | PP: 15 · PSOE: 6 · BNG: 2 |
| Community of Madrid | PP: 16 · PSOE: 9 · Vox: 9 · Sumar: 3 · Podemos: 1 |
| Region of Murcia | PP: 5 · Vox: 3 · PSOE: 2 |
| Navarre | PSOE: 2 · PP: 1 · EH Bildu: 1 |
| Basque Country | PSOE: 6 · PNV: 5 · EH Bildu: 5 |
The table includes the parties and the figures that appear in the available territorial breakdown of the survey. It does not include a complete distribution of all autonomous communities, so the absences should not be interpreted as an estimate of zero seats.
Vox grows in Castilla y León and Castilla-La Mancha
Castilla y León is among the territories where the poll anticipates a loss of representation for the PP: it would go from 18 seats in 2023 to 16. The PSOE would drop from 12 to eight, while Vox would rise to seven deputies. In Castilla-La Mancha, the popular party would lose two representatives, down to eight, and the socialists would go from ten to seven. Vox would reach six.
In Aragón, the projection attributes seven seats to the PP, three to the PSOE, and two to Vox, with one representative for Sumar. In Extremadura, the popular party would obtain four deputies, the socialists three, and Vox two. In Galicia, the PP would remain the main force with 15 seats, while the PSOE would obtain six and the BNG, two.
The PSOE loses ground in Catalonia and Andalusia
Andalusia would continue to be one of the main scenarios of competition among the three major state forces. The PP would reach 25 deputies and the PSOE, 17, while Vox would arrive at 16, seven more than the nine it achieved in 2023. Adelante Andalucía would achieve two seats.
In Catalonia, the PSC would maintain the first position with 16 deputies, three less than in 2023. ERC would obtain nine and Junts would maintain seven, while Vox would enter ahead of the PP in the distribution, with seven seats against six. Sumar would be left with two representatives and Podemos would obtain one.
The survey also places Vox with three deputies in Murcia, above the two of the PSOE, and without representation in Galicia, Navarra, and the Basque Country. In this last territory, the PSOE would obtain six seats, compared to five from the PNV and five from EH Bildu.
Sumar would be left with nine seats across Spain
The projection reduces Sumar's presence to nine deputies, 23 less than the number it achieved four years ago. The formation would maintain representation in Madrid, Catalonia, Valencia Community, Balearic Islands, and Aragón, but would disappear from six communities. Podemos, which appears separately in the estimate, would obtain two seats: one in Madrid and another in Catalonia.
In the Valencia Community, the PP would obtain 12 deputies, one less than in the general elections of 2023, according to the territorial analysis published alongside the survey. The available document does not allow for the completion of the seat distribution of the other parties in that community nor does it provide in the reproduced breakdown the data for all the autonomous communities.