The most important movement of the last Sigma Dos does not change the majority, but the distribution of power within it. The survey for El Mundo places the PP at 135 deputies, five less than in the previous release, and Vox at 68, five more. Together they maintain the 203 seats they already had in the previous survey: 27 above the absolute majority.
The PSOE remains at 103 representatives and Sumar at nine. The socialists drop three tenths, down to 25.3%, while their coalition partner improves from 6.6% to 7.6%, without that increase translating into more deputies.
The survey, published on the night of October 11, thus maintains a wide parliamentary advantage for the right ahead of the 29N. But it does not reflect a growth in their total seats: what changes is the weight of each party.
Compared to the previous Sigma Dos: Vox advances and the PP retreats
The previous study, collected by Sigma Dos on its website on October 5, granted the PP 32.6% of the vote and 140 deputies; the PSOE, 25.6% and 103; Vox, 18.3% and 63; and Sumar, 6.6% and nine.
Now the PP drops seven tenths, down to 31.9%, while Vox gains eight and reaches 19.1%. The sum of both barely changes: it goes from 50.9% to 51%.
The distance between the two major parties also narrows. The PP led the PSOE by seven points and now does so by 6.6. In seats, the difference drops from 37 to 32. This cut does not come from a socialist improvement, but from a popular retreat.
Podemos goes from 3.3% to 3.1% and maintains two deputies. PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos gather 114 representatives, exactly the same as in the previous study.
Compared to the 23J: Vox gains 35 deputies and the PSOE loses 18
The comparison with the elections of July 2023 shows a much deeper transformation. The PP would lose two deputies compared to its 137 at that time. Vox, on the other hand, would go from 33 to 68: gaining 35 and exceeding double its representation.
PP and Vox would jointly advance from 170 to 203 seats. That’s 33 more, despite the fact that the popular party would be slightly below its result from the 23J. The growth of the potential majority is concentrated in Santiago Abascal's party.
The PSOE would drop from 121 to 103 deputies, a loss of 18. In votes, it would go from 31.7% to 25.3%, a decline of 6.4 points.
Sumar and Podemos would obtain eleven representatives between them, compared to the 31 that the joint candidacy achieved in 2023. The difference would be twenty deputies. Comparing the whole avoids treating as identical lists that then ran united and now appear separated.
Sumar gains a point, but not a seat
One of the most striking results of the survey is to the left of the PSOE. Sumar improves a full point in vote estimation and, still, retains its nine deputies.
There is no automatic relationship between national percentage and representation. The distribution depends on where the votes are concentrated and which candidacy secures the last seats in each constituency. Without the provincial breakdown, it cannot be specified where that improvement is halted.
The sum of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos reaches 36% of the vote, compared to the previous 35.5%. Their distance from the 51% of PP and Vox is fifteen points. The 18.1 points that separate the right from PSOE and Sumar correspond to another comparison, which excludes Podemos.
The majority does not change; the negotiation between PP and Vox does
With 203 deputies, PP and Vox could gather a sufficient majority for an investiture if they agreed to support it. The survey does not turn that pact or the electoral result into accomplished facts.
What it does reflect is a Vox with greater weight against the PP. The published estimation of transfers indicates a net balance of around 1.15 million votes favorable to Vox in its exchanges with the populars regarding the electorate of 2023. That calculation should not be confused with movements produced exclusively during the last week.
The balance is concrete: the right retains its majority, the PP loses ground to Vox, and the improvement of Sumar in votes does not modify the representation of the state left.
Vox gains five seats and the PP loses five
The sum of the right remains at 203 deputies. PSOE and Sumar do not change.
Swipe to see all columns →| Party or space | 23J of 2023 | Previous Sigma Dos | October 11, 2026 | Since the previous | Against the 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 137 | 140 | 135 | −5 | −2 |
| PSOE | 121 | 103 | 103 | 0 | −18 |
| Vox | 33 | 63 | 68 | +5 | +35 |
| Sumar | 31Included Podemos | 9 | 9 | 0 | See joint space |
| Podemos | Integrated in Sumar | 2 | 2 | 0 | See joint space |
| Sumar + Podemos | 31 | 11 | 11 | 0 | −20 |
| PP + Vox | 170 | 203 | 203 | 0 | +33 |
| PSOE + Sumar + Podemos | 152 | 114 | 114 | 0 | −38 |
Absolute majority: 176 deputies. Sources: Sigma Dos / El Mundo and definitive results of the 23J. The previous reference is the barometer collected by Sigma Dos on its website on October 5, with fieldwork from September 22 to October 1.
Podemos ran integrated in Sumar in 2023. The grouped rows are subtotals and should not be summed again. This table does not show all the candidacies of the Congress.
Sumar gains one point and Vox rises eight tenths
The PP drops seven tenths and the PSOE, three. The right goes from 50.9% to 51%.
Swipe to see all columns →| Party or grouping | Previous Sigma Dos | October 11, 2026 | Change in points |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 32.6% | 31.9% | −0.7 |
| PSOE | 25.6% | 25.3% | −0.3 |
| Vox | 18.3% | 19.1% | +0.8 |
| Sumar | 6.6% | 7.6% | +1.0 |
| Podemos | 3.3% | 3.1% | −0.2 |
| PP + Vox | 50.9% | 51.0% | +0.1 |
| PSOE + Sumar + Podemos | 35.5% | 36.0% | +0.5 |
Source: Sigma Dos / El Mundo. Differences calculated with the published percentages. The groupings are subtotals and do not include all the forces that could intervene in an investiture.
The variations between estimates do not alone demonstrate statistically significant changes nor allow attributing them to a specific event.
This is how Congress would look according to Sigma Dos
Complete distribution of seats published in the new survey.
| Candidacy | Estimated vote | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.9% | 135 |
| PSOE | 25.3% | 103 |
| Vox | 19.1% | 68 |
| Sumar | 7.6% | 9 |
| ERC | 2.6% | 9 |
| Junts | 1.2% | 7 |
| EH Bildu | 1.1% | 6 |
| PNV | 0.9% | 5 |
| Podemos | 3.1% | 2 |
| BNG | 0.9% | 2 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 0.8% | 2 |
| Coalición Canaria | 0.5% | 1 |
| UPN | 0.2% | 1 |
| Total seats | — | 350 |
Source: graph of Sigma Dos for El Mundo published on October 11, 2026. The seats total 350. The percentages shown sum to 95.2%: the graph does not break down the remaining 4.8% and does not assign an unpublished composition here.
Original information from El Mundo · Previous barometer and its technical sheet