The Brent barrel has reached this Friday to touch 117 dollars, placing again the price of the reference crude in Europe at levels not seen since April, in a context of intensification of attacks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia and growing concern over possible additional bombings by the United States on Iran, factors that are driving prices up.
The last time Brent moved at those levels was on April 30, two months before the start of the joint offensive by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and since then it had not returned to exceed that price range.
In this session, Brent has reached 116.9 dollars, after an advance of more than 3.3% during the day. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the reference in the United States, was around 103 dollars, with an intraday increase of 3.5%.
The evolution of the war with Iran continues to generate doubts in the markets on the eve of the midterm elections in the United States, set for November 3, a date that the U.S. president has indicated as key to deciding his next steps in the conflict. In fact, he has assured that he will not order attacks against the Asian country at least until after those elections.
"This rebound is due less to current fundamentals than to growing concern over supply. Markets are increasingly uneasy about a new escalation in the Persian Gulf, a scenario that could threaten oil flows, which until now have remained remarkably stable," stated ING Think analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey.
Experts emphasize that the situation "does not offer an optimistic outlook," while various reports indicate that the occupant of the White House is considering new attacks on Iran, while reinforcing his military deployment in the region with the arrival of a new aircraft carrier.
At the same time, the U.S. Army has stated that the blockade on Iranian ports, in effect for a hundred days, has prevented the country from exporting oil worth "at least 25 billion dollars" (about 22.120 billion euros), and has emphasized that this measure "limits" the Revolutionary Guard's ability to "finance terrorism."
The maritime traffic of crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil transportation, remains at moderate levels, while the American president dismissed any type of negotiation with Iran at this moment on Thursday, warning that "something" will happen "relatively soon" in relation to the crisis.
At the same time, Donald Trump blamed Iran for raising oil prices as an electoral weapon against his Republican Party ahead of the decisive legislative elections on November 3.
Escalation of attacks between Houthis and Saudi Arabia
In this context, the Houthi rebels of Yemen have claimed a series of recent attacks against strategic targets in Saudi Arabia, including the Ministry of Defense, the Yanbu refinery, and several airports in the country, amid the intensification of the war in Yemen. The Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Sari, has detailed four "high-level operations in the last 48 hours" in which "ballistic missiles and drones" were used.
The first operation was directed against the headquarters of the Saudi Ministry of Defense in Riyadh, the capital, followed by an attack on the international airport of Dammam, "which caused the interruption of air traffic," in addition to another strike against the international airport of Abha.
Another of the actions targeted a refinery in Yanbu, one of the main oil plants in Saudi Arabia located on the coast of the Red Sea. "The impact was direct, causing a fire at the target site," the spokesman noted.
On the other hand, Houthi authorities reported on Thursday the death of two people and injuries to six others, including three minors, in several bombings attributed to the coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
For weeks, the Houthis have intensified their missile and drone attacks against Saudi facilities in response to the international coalition's support for the operations of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which announced a large-scale offensive in early October to try to regain the areas controlled by the rebels.
"The escalation seems to be the most likely path. Consequently, our expectation that Brent would average 80 dollars per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026 seems unattainable. Even if tensions do not escalate, the mere possibility will likely keep a considerable geopolitical risk premium in prices," they have concluded from ING Think.