The PP and the PSOE would tie at 14 deputies for Madrid and Iustitia Europa would enter Congress with three seats, with seven seats for VOX. That is what at least the latest survey from Target Point, prepared for the formation led by lawyer Luis María Pardo, indicates.
In addition, the study raises the potential vote for the party to 22% and even contemplates that it could reach up to nine deputies if the most favorable scenario were to materialize.
The survey was conducted between October 16 and 19 through 1,204 interviews. Its results outline a scenario in which Iustitia Europa could obtain parliamentary representation in Madrid, one of the constituencies with the most deputies in Congress.
The estimate of three seats corresponds to the scenario of certain votes; the nine deputies constitute an alternative simulation based on the sum of certain and probable votes, not an equivalent estimate of the electoral result.
The survey has been prepared by Target Point, a firm specialized in demographic research, data analysis, and political consulting that also works in electoral micro-segmentation.
A 22% potential vote and a 7.5% certain vote
According to the data presented to DEMÓCRATA by the formation, 7.5% of those surveyed would vote certainly for Iustitia Europa. This figure would allow the party to obtain three deputies for Madrid in the electoral simulation of Target Point. The potential vote rises to 22%, a percentage that includes those who could end up supporting the candidacy, but does not equate to a firm voting intention.
In addition, 34.2% of Madrilenians state that they could consider voting for the formation. The study indicates that this voting possibility extends to different electorates, although it has a greater penetration among VOX and PP voters and among those who abstained in previous elections.
Specifically, 32% of VOX voters and 29% of PP voters express that they would vote certainly or probably for Iustitia Europa. Among abstainers, the percentage is 24%, while among PSOE and Frente Amplio voters it stands at 15%, according to the data released by the party.
The simulation of nine deputies is based on the hypothesis that all potential votes will be transformed into effective votes. That scenario is therefore conditioned on the fact that voters who today express a possibility of voting end up leaning towards the candidacy on November 29.
One third of Madrid residents know Pardo or his party
The study also measures the degree of knowledge of Iustitia Europa and its president. 32.3% of respondents claim to know or have heard of Luis María Pardo or the formation, according to the survey. The percentage reaches 50% among PP voters and 40% among Vox voters. Among PSOE voters, it stands at 27% and among Frente Amplio voters, at 20%.
Among those who know the lawyer or his party, 60% consider his actions against political corruption to be very or quite relevant. Support for that assessment reaches 80% among popular voters and 72% among Vox voters. Among undecided voters, it reaches 57%, compared to 18% of PSOE voters and 17% of Frente Amplio voters.
Iustitia Europa links part of its notoriety to its judicial actions against corruption and the procedure related to the Grandchildren's Law. The survey collects the degree of knowledge and the assessment declared by the interviewees, but those data do not measure effective voting intention by themselves.
Support for institutional reforms
Target Point also asked about six proposals linked to the ideology of Iustitia Europa. Five receive, according to the results released, the support of more than 75% of respondents. The measure with the highest acceptance is to strengthen citizen control over political action, at 82%, followed by judicial independence, at 81%.
The depoliticization of state institutions and the elimination of public subsidies to parties receive 77% support in both cases. The limitation of mandates for elected officials reaches 76%, while the direct election of the president of the Government stands at 61%.
The formation interprets these percentages as a sign of transversal support for its proposals. However, the acceptance of concrete measures does not necessarily imply that those who support them will vote for Iustitia Europa: these are distinct questions within the study.
The survey adds to other polls cited by the party. Iustitia Europa recalls that a study by NC Report published in August attributed it 11.4% of the votes and four deputies from Madrid, while another from DYM also considered the possibility of obtaining four seats. The differences between results must be assessed taking into account the dates, methodology, and estimation scenarios of each study.