The World Bank anticipates that the overall set of raw materials will register a 23.1% price rebound in 2026, driven by the impact of global crises such as the war in the Middle East and the El Niño climate phenomenon. According to its new projections, the organization expects that, after this sharp increase, the cost of energy, food, fertilizers and metals will become cheaper by 7% in 2027 and by an additional 8.8% in 2028.
In its report "Commodity Markets Outlook", the institution linked to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that the conflict in the Middle East has depleted crude reserves, pushing energy quotations to their highest level in the last four years. At the same time, disruptions in grain shipments and the effects of El Niño are putting harvests and food accessibility at risk.
Against this backdrop, the World Bank projects that energy prices will rise 32% in 2026, thus breaking with three consecutive years of declines, before moderating with drops of 11.5% in 2027 and an additional 11.8% in 2028. The organization calculates that the average price of Brent will stand at 91 dollars per barrel in 2026, compared with the 69 dollars estimated for 2025, before falling back to 79 dollars in 2027.
As for basic foods, the report foresees a price increase of around 10.3% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027, followed by a decline of 5.2% in 2028. For their part, fertilizers would register a 14.3% increase in 2026, after the sharp rise in urea prices at the beginning of the year, to return to 2025 levels in 2027, a year in which they would fall 12.4%, with a new decline of 8.2% in 2028.
In the field of industrial metals, the World Bank expects prices to set a new all-time high in 2026, with an increase of 24.5%, driven by aluminum, copper and tin, which would reach record highs. From there, the organization expects declines of 3.3% in 2027 and 3.8% in 2028. As for precious metals, the cost "will rise this year will increase by 39.9% in the face of demand for safe-haven assets, falling next year by 8.3% and by 6% the following one, although they will continue to triple their average cost of 2015-2019".
The central scenario of the World Bank does not incorporate a significant worsening of the conflicts that condition the global supply of raw materials. However, it warns that energy prices could rise even further if the war in the Middle East intensifies and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues. Combined with a more severe El Niño episode, this shock could lead to a food crisis.
In an adverse scenario in which these risks materialize at the same time, the body estimates that Brent could stand at an average of 105 dollars per barrel in 2027 and that the prices of basic foods could be 12% above what is reflected in the base scenario, exceeding the levels reached in 2022.
"The rise in energy costs and trade disruptions are pushing up the prices of a wide range of raw materials, which threatens to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth," said Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist of the World Bank and director of the Prospects Group.
Given this outlook, the institution emphasizes that the priority is to protect people with fewer resources and support low-income countries that are already carrying a heavy debt burden. To this end, the World Bank has made available between 50 billion and 60 billion dollars (44.840 billion and 53.808 billion euros) through existing instruments, of which 25 billion dollars (22.420 billion euros) correspond to prearranged financing, with the aim of strengthening social safety nets, bolstering fiscal capacity and facilitating working capital and liquidity for companies and agricultural holdings.