The CDU of Friedrich Merz faces a double blow in the regional elections this Sunday in Germany. The exit polls show a strong drop for the conservatives: they would lose the first position in Berlin to Die Linke and would be on the verge of the electoral threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The estimate from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, published at 18:00 on September 20, places the CDU at 20% in the capital and at 5% in the northeastern state. These are exit polls, not definitive results of the counting.
If the count confirms these figures, the chancellor's party would suffer two defeats of different natures: in Berlin it would cease to be the most voted force; in Mecklenburg it would have to ensure even its access to the proportional distribution of seats.
Berlin: the CDU would lose the advantage gained in 2023
In the capital, ZDF places Die Linke at 26%, six points ahead of the conservatives. The Greens would obtain 15.5%; AfD, 13.5%; the SPD, 12%; and BSW, 5%.
The contrast with the previous election is considerable. In February 2023, the CDU won with 28.2%, while Die Linke obtained 12.2%. The conservatives then formed a coalition with the SPD.
The comparison would imply a loss of 8.2 points for the CDU. Die Linke, on the other hand, would more than double its percentage and place Elif Eralp in a prominent position to try to lead the next Executive.
The conservative candidacy this time corresponds to Stefan Evers. Kai Wegner resigned from repeating as the head of the list after criticism for his management of the blackout that affected the city.
But the political impact for the chancellor would be evident: his party would lose the electoral initiative in the German capital.
Mecklenburg: from 13.3% to fighting to surpass the threshold
The most severe scenario for the Christian Democrats appears in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. There, ZDF attributes 38% to AfD and 36.5% to the SPD of Manuela Schwesig. The CDU would be far behind both.
ARD also warns of a possible historic collapse of the conservatives and recalls that in the 2021 elections they had obtained 13.3%. Their closing information places the party just above the 5% threshold.
Taking ZDF's estimate, the conservative drop would reach 8.3 points: they would have lost more than half of their support percentage compared to the previous call.
Two setbacks and two different rivals
The joint reading poses a particularly difficult problem for the CDU. In Berlin, the most notable advance corresponds to Die Linke. In Mecklenburg, the first position is contested between AfD and the SPD, with the conservatives relegated to a much smaller role.
It would not be a uniform night for the social democrats either: while Schwesig keeps the SPD in the race to win in the northeast, the Berlin estimate relegates it to fifth place. Regional leaderships and the problems of each territory continue to weigh heavily.
The blow to Merz does not yet decide the governments
For Merz, the combination would increase political pressure on his leadership. The dimension of the setback would raise questions about the CDU's ability to regain support and about the effectiveness of its candidacies and its message.
But losing the first position does not automatically mean being out of the Government. In Berlin, conservative continuity would depend on the seats and possible agreements. In Mecklenburg, the composition of the Parliament is particularly uncertain due to the proximity of several formations to the electoral threshold.
The count must resolve those uncertainties. For now, the polls draw a strong warning for the CDU: in one night it could go from contesting the leadership of two states to negotiating its influence in one and monitoring its parliamentary survival in the other.