The Administration of Donald Trump is preparing a plan to prohibit diesel exports from the United States for 90 days, an intervention aimed at increasing domestic supply and containing prices that are at historic highs, according to Politico published this Wednesday citing five people familiar with the conversations.
Thus, the White House would be working on a three-month suspension whose legal framework is still being defined. The president would lean towards announcing it before the end of the week, although a White House official has rejected the media's information and labeled it as "fake news."
What is publicly confirmed is that Trump wants to study the restriction. "I said not to send the diesel," he stated this Tuesday. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, explained alongside him that the Administration is examining its viability and whether a total or partial ban would work better. When asked about the timelines, Trump responded that they would make a decision "quickly."
The possibility that the world's largest diesel exporter withdraws part of its production from the international market comes, moreover, at a particularly delicate moment. The war with Iran and the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced international supply, driving fuel prices to historic highs.
Futures fall in the US and soar in Europe
Trump's threat has provoked an immediate reaction in the markets, although in opposite directions. US diesel futures have fallen by more than 7%, while European ones have soared by more than 7%.
The movement responds to the logic of a potential ban. The United States would retain part of the fuel it currently exports within its borders, while Europe would have to compete for an even scarcer international supply.
Bloomberg confirms the strong divergence between both markets. The premium of European diesel over Brent has exceeded 95 dollars per barrel, a record in its historical series since 2011, while the equivalent US reference weakened.
Diesel surpasses 6.50 dollars per gallon in the US
The pressure to intervene comes especially from agricultural states. The average price of US diesel stood this Wednesday at 6.52 dollars per gallon, 76% more than a year ago, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) collected by Reuters.
The Republican senator Chuck Grassley, from Iowa, has been one of the leaders who have called for measures in response to the impact of prices on farmers. Other Republicans from states with significant agricultural weight have joined the calls to restrict exports.
The problem transcends gas stations. Diesel is essential for the transportation of goods, agriculture, construction, and a good part of industrial activity, so its increase in cost ends up being transferred to business costs and can fuel inflation.
The international crisis has also left U.S. inventories at particularly low levels. Reserves are 15% below the average of the last five years for this time of year, while U.S. refineries are operating at rates not seen in eight years.
Europe, facing another blow to its supply
An eventual U.S. ban would come at a time when Europe is already struggling to replace other supplies.
The war with Iran has drastically reduced the flows of petroleum products from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia maintains restrictions on its own diesel exports in a context marked by Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.
The combination has pushed the margin of European diesel against Brent to about 95 dollars per barrel, a historic high, according to data collected this Wednesday by Reuters.
Precisely for this reason, the global market has little room to absorb the withdrawal of the United States. Reuters points out that the international diesel shortage could extend until 2027 and that inventories are especially strained both in North America and in Europe and Asia.