More than one in every two residents in the countries of West Africa and 45% of the Moroccan population have considered at some point leaving their place of origin in search of better opportunities, with Europe as the main pole of attraction and North America as a second option, according to a study by Afrobarometer that shows marked regional differences in migratory expectations within the continent.
In total, 45% of the participants in the 38 countries included in the report "African Insights 2026. Beyond Borders: Citizen Perspectives in a Changing World Order" acknowledge having considered moving to another country, and 25% say they think about it "a lot." The fieldwork was carried out between January 2024 and September 2025.
The trend is especially pronounced in West Africa —the area closest to the Spanish coasts, particularly the Canary Islands— where 57% admit to having thought about emigrating and 34% consider it very often. In this group, Gambia stands out, with 68% of citizens having considered leaving and 53% thinking about it "a lot," the highest percentage on the entire continent.
Gambia, Liberia, and Guinea Bissau lead the way
The percentages of those who frequently think about leaving are also very high in Liberia (51%), Guinea Bissau (49%), Ghana (44%), Cape Verde (40%), and Sierra Leone (38%). In Senegal, a common country of origin for small boats heading to the Canaries, the figure stands at 29%.
In North Africa, the other major area close to Europe, the study —which Europa Press has accessed— only includes information from Morocco and Mauritania, the main departure points for small boats heading to Spain, and from Tunisia, from where vessels set sail towards Italy, excluding countries like Algeria or Libya.
In this region, the average of those who have thought about emigrating is at 36%, with only 16% claiming to often reflect on that possibility. Although in Tunisia more people think a lot about leaving, at 26%, the total percentage of Moroccans considering to some extent trying their luck outside the Alaouite kingdom rises to 45% —a lot (16%), somewhat (11%), or a little (18%)— compared to 36% in the Tunisian case. In Mauritania, the levels are lower: 29% have considered it, but only 7% do so frequently.
The idea of emigrating appears with less strength in other areas of the continent: in East Africa, 16% say they think "a lot" about leaving; in Southern Africa, the percentage rises to 23%, and in Central Africa, to 24%.
Afrobarometer emphasizes that the number of people considering leaving their country has experienced a "substantial increase" compared to the 2016-2018 round in 31 of the states now studied. The group of those who think a lot about emigrating has risen from 18% to 25%, with increases of up to 24 points in countries like Gambia or Ghana.
Young and more educated, the most likely to emigrate
The survey confirms that age and educational level influence decisively. It is three times more likely that those aged between 18 and 35 think a lot about leaving than those over 55 years old —32% versus 11%—. The figures soar among young people from Gambia (62%), Liberia (59%), Ghana (55%), Guinea Bissau (53%), and Tunisia (51%).
Regarding education, 31% of people with higher education acknowledge that they think a lot about emigrating, compared to 18% of those who have not attended school, 20% with only primary education, and 29% with secondary education. By gender, men (28%) show more intention to leave than women (23%), and there is also a greater interest in urban areas (29%) than in rural areas (20%).
Although the economic level difference between those considering emigration is relatively small —20% among those who do not experience poverty and 27% among those who suffer it more intensely—, the report concludes that the economic situation is the main driving force behind the decision to leave the country.
When asked about the reason that would lead them to emigrate, 50% cite the search for work, while 29% would do so to escape poverty or economic difficulties. Additionally, 4% mention educational reasons, 3% refer to political issues such as democracy and freedoms, and another 3% point to travel and tourism.
Europe consolidates as a priority destination
Regarding the place to which they would move, Afrobarometer detects notable regional variations, although Europe is confirmed as the preferred destination. 32% of respondents choose the Old Continent, closely followed by North America, with 28%. 16% lean towards other areas such as the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, or Oceania.
In contrast, 22% would opt to move to another country in their same region (17%) or to another African state (5%), a proportion that has clearly fallen compared to the 2016-2018 survey. Then, in the 31 countries considered, the figure reached 36%, while now the combined average stands at 26%.
During this period, the appeal of North America has increased from 21% to 28%, although the authors of the report specify that most of the fieldwork was conducted before the start, in January 2026, of Donald Trump's second term in the United States. The preference for Europe has also grown, rising from 27% to 29%.
Regional differences are clear: those living closer to Europe show a greater interest in this destination. 49% of citizens from North Africa and 39% of inhabitants of West Africa indicate it as their first choice, ahead of North America, which totals 28% and 34% respectively.
Europe is the main target for 59% of Moroccans, 56% of Tunisians, and 25% of Mauritanians. In West Africa, the percentage reaches 75% in Guinea Bissau and 61% in Cape Verde, among other analyzed countries.