Rafa Jódar is playing this week for his presence at the ATP Finals 2026, the tournament that brings together the eight best tennis players of the season and that will be held in Turin from November 15 to 22. The young man from Madrid, who this Monday, November 2, has made his debut in the condition of a top 10 player in the world, faces the Paris Masters 1000 with a historic opportunity: to qualify for the ATP Finals in his first full season on the professional circuit.
The Spaniard has begun his participation in the French capital with a victory over the Chilean Alejandro Tabilo by 6-2 and 6-3, a result that allows him to advance to the second round and continue adding points in a particularly tight ranking. Before the start of the tournament, Jódar occupied ninth place in the ATP Race with 3,184 points, 24 more than Álex de Miñaur, his main pursuer. A difference that can prove decisive, especially after the ATP corrected this Sunday an error in the counting of the Australian's points.
What Rafa Jódar needs to qualify for the ATP Finals
The numbers for Rafa Jódar to be in Turin have a first condition: to finish the Paris Masters 1000 among the top nine of the ATP Race. Although the ATP Finals bring together only eight players, the confirmed absence of Jannik Sinner due to injury allows the ninth-placed player to occupy the last available spot.
The man from Madrid started the week in that position, with 3,184 points compared to De Miñaur's 3,160. If both reach the same round in Paris, Jódar will keep his advantage over the Australian, although he will have to keep an eye on other contenders who can still overtake him, especially Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz.
The victory over Tabilo represents an important first step. Jódar reaches 3,234 points in the Race, a figure that still does not guarantee him the ticket, but that forces his pursuers to keep winning matches to surpass him. The next objective will be to reach the round of 16 and, later, the quarterfinals, where he could begin to build a more significant lead.
According to the scenarios calculated from the ATP points distribution and the Paris draw, reaching the final would mathematically secure Jódar’s qualification for Turin, regardless of the results of his rivals. However, he does not necessarily need to go that far: he could secure the spot with an earlier elimination if his competitors also do not add enough points.
Álex de Miñaur, Jódar’s main rival in the race to Turin
The most direct fight for the last spot pits Rafa Jódar against Álex de Miñaur, finalist in the ATP 500 in Vienna, where he fell this Sunday to Carlos Alcaraz. The Australian was on the verge of overtaking the Spaniard in the standings, but a later correction by the ATP changed the calculations.
Initially, the standings placed De Miñaur with 3,210 points, one more than Jódar, but the body revised the calculation by taking into account the results that must be discarded when a player exceeds the number of computable tournaments. After the update, Jódar was left with 3,184 points and De Miñaur with 3,160, a lead of 24 points for the Madrid native before the start of the final Masters 1000.
This difference means that the Spaniard depends on his own results to stay ahead of the Australian. However, De Miñaur has a favorable circumstance: he is exempt from playing the first round in Paris because of his seeded status. His first victory would allow him to reach the round of 16 directly and add 100 points in the tournament.
If De Miñaur manages to go further than Jódar, he could snatch the ninth position from him. That is why an early elimination of the Australian would considerably ease the qualification of the Madrid native, while a good run by both would keep the uncertainty until the last rounds.
Djokovic and Fritz also threaten the Spaniard’s qualification
Although De Miñaur is Rafa Jódar’s main rival, Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz also maintain mathematical options of disputing the ATP Finals. Both arrive in Paris with a deficit of close to 300 points compared with the Spaniard and need a standout performance to climb positions.
Djokovic faces the tournament after his elimination in Basel and with the obligation to reach, at least, the semifinals to keep real qualification options alive. Fritz finds himself in a similar situation, as he also needs to reach the later rounds to get closer to the qualifying spots.
The presence of these players introduces an additional variable in Jódar's accounts. Matching De Miñaur's result may not be enough if Djokovic or Fritz achieve a great performance, especially if they reach the final or win the title. For this reason, the Madrid native needs to accumulate victories to reduce his dependence on others' results.
How many points are awarded by the Paris Masters 1000
The Paris tournament, which is played from November 2 to 8, constitutes the last opportunity to add points in the race for qualification for the ATP Finals. The champion gets 1,000 points, while the finalist adds 650 and the semifinalists receive 400. The quarterfinalists get 200 points and the players who reach the round of 16, 100.
In Jódar's case, reaching the round of 16 would raise his total to 3,284 points, while reaching the quarterfinals would put him at 3,384. A semifinal would allow him to reach 3,584 points and playing the final would raise his tally to 3,834, a figure that, according to the possible combinations of the draw, would guarantee his presence in Turin.
The path will not be easy, since the draw contemplates a possible matchup with Flavio Cobolli in the round of 16, another of the tennis players involved in the race to the Finals. In addition, Jódar and Carlos Alcaraz could cross paths in the semifinals if both advance through their respective sections.
Rafa Jódar seeks to make history in his first professional season
The possibility of qualifying for the ATP Finals comes after an extraordinary season for Rafa Jódar. At 20 years old, the Madrid tennis player has won his first ATP title in Marrakech, has played the finals of Washington and Shanghai and has reached the quarterfinals of Roland Garros, results that have allowed him to quickly rise in the world rankings.
This Monday, moreover, he has become one of the youngest players on the current circuit to enter the top 10. His evolution has been especially rapid: just a year ago he was still competing in Challenger tournaments and now he is fighting for a place among the best players of the season.
Should he secure the ticket to Turin, Jódar could accompany Carlos Alcaraz as the second Spanish representative at the ATP Finals 2026. He would also join the small group of tennis players capable of playing the Masters Cup just one year after taking part in the Next Gen ATP Finals.
The resolution will come this week in Paris. For now, the objective is clear: keep winning matches, maintain the lead over De Miñaur and prevent Djokovic or Fritz from snatching a spot that, before the tournament, was provisionally in his hands.