The crisis of Ceuta can now also be measured in votes. One month after the massive entry on July 30, a new survey by Sigma Dos for El Mundo outlines an extraordinary transformation of the political map of the autonomous city: the PP of Juan Jesús Vivas goes from winning the elections with 34.4% in 2023 to now concentrating 50.5% of the vote and achieving an absolute majority on its own.
In the opposite direction, the PSOE goes from 21% to 5.6%. It loses more than 15 points, five of the six deputies it obtained three years ago, and is reduced to a single representative in an Assembly of 25 seats.
The survey was conducted between August 26 and 30, after practically a full month of crisis. And it is published just as Ceuta becomes the center of national conversation again this Wednesday, September 2: more than 260 municipalities have called for gatherings at 8:00 PM coinciding with the Day of Ceuta. In Madrid, the call is moved in front of the Congress of Deputies. ([La Razón][2])
It is difficult to find a clearer photograph of the political cost of a crisis in the very territory where it has occurred.
The electoral cost of Ceuta: PP +16 points, PSOE -15
The comparison with the regional elections of May 2023 allows measuring the magnitude of the movement.
The PP obtained 34.37% of the votes and nine deputies then. Sigma Dos now places it at 50.5%, an increase of 16.1 points, and between 13 and 14 seats.
The PSOE traveled practically the same distance in the opposite direction. It would go from 20.96% to 5.6%, a drop of 15.4 points, and from six representatives to one.
The official results of 2023 were 11,738 votes for the PP and 7,158 for the PSOE. Vox obtained 7,050; MDyC, 3,839; and Ceuta Ya!, 3,428. ([RTVE.es][3])
The distance between PP and PSOE was then 13.4 points. Now it would be 44.9. That is, the gap between the two parties would have widened by more than 31 points in three years.
Almost three out of ten PSOE voters switch directly to PP
The most significant movement is not only in the final result but in the transfer of votes. According to Sigma Dos, 29.4% of those who voted for the PSOE in the regional elections of 2023 would now choose the PP. It is an extraordinarily high transfer between two rival parties.
It cannot automatically convert into absolute votes because participation and the size of the electorate can change. But as a magnitude reference, the PSOE obtained 7,158 votes in 2023: 29.4% of that amount represents a volume equivalent to about 2,100 voters.
The survey, therefore, does not only describe abstention or socialist demobilization. A very important part of the electorate that the PSOE loses would directly cross over to Vivas.
Vivas absorbs practically all the socialist punishment
The striking thing is that Vox does not star in the big rise. In 2023 it obtained 20.64%. Sigma Dos now places it at 21.6%. It is less than a point of growth.
The Popular Party gains 16 points, while Vox remains practically at its 2023 level. The result thus points to a very local political phenomenon: the response of the electorate seems to especially reward the management and leadership of the president of Ceuta rather than producing a simple general shift to the right.
Vivas could govern Ceuta without any partner
The Assembly of Ceuta has 25 seats and the absolute majority is set at 13.
The PP currently governs with nine. Sigma Dos now grants it between 13 and 14, which would allow Vivas to govern alone without needing either Vox or any of the local formations.
It would also be a recovery of a type of majority that the PP had lost in the last electoral cycles. In 2015, the PP obtained precisely 13 seats. In 2019 and 2023 it dropped to nine. The current estimate would return Vivas to the realm of absolute majority. ([RTVE.es][4])
The PSOE, on the verge of disappearing
There is an even more striking fact.
The electoral barrier to enter the Assembly of Ceuta is set at 5%. Sigma Dos places the PSOE at 5.6%.
That is to say, the socialists would be just six tenths away from the threshold that allows access to the distribution of seats.
The estimate still grants them one representative, but illustrates to what extent the fall is exceptional: a party that obtained six deputies just three years ago now enters the zone where its own parliamentary presence begins to be at risk.
Vox becomes the second force, but barely grows
Vox would become the second force with 21.6% of the votes. In 2023 it obtained 20.64%. The advance would be approximately one point, far from the 16 points that the PP gains.
In representation, it would go from five seats to five or six.
This result is especially interesting because in the national polls conducted during August, Vox has appeared as one of the beneficiaries of the political climate following Ceuta. In the national series of Sigma Dos, it has risen from 17.3% in July to 17.9% at the end of August and reaches 61 deputies. ([Sigma Dos][5])
In Ceuta, however, the effect has another recipient: Vivas.
Ceuta Ya! also grows
The PP is not the only party that improves. Ceuta Ya! goes from the 10.03% obtained in the 2023 regional elections to 12.2%.
The increase is 2.2 points. This would allow it to go from two to three seats and become the third force in the Assembly, ahead of MDyC and a PSOE reduced to a single representative.
MDyC would experience the opposite movement. It goes from 11.24% to 8.9% and would lose one of its current three deputies, remaining with two.
The future Parliament that Sigma Dos outlines would therefore be greatly reordered: PP 13-14; Vox 5-6; Ceuta Ya! 3; MDyC 2; PSOE 1.
Vivas Effect: 58% of his own socialist voters would prefer him
The electoral transfer is not the only problem for the PSOE of Ceuta. Sigma Dos also asks who should preside over the city. Among those who voted for the PSOE in 2023, 58.2% respond Juan Jesús Vivas. Only 12.4% of that same electorate bets on Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano, the general secretary of the Ceuta PSOE and government delegate.
This is an unusual fact: an absolute majority of the voters of a party prefers as president the main leader of its opponent.
The personal evaluation reproduces that distance.
Vivas scores an 8 out of 10.
Fátima Hamed, from MDyC, reaches a 4.5; Juan Sergio Redondo, from Vox, a 4.1; Mohamed Mustafa, from Ceuta Ya!, a 3.5; and Pérez Triano scores a 2.
Two out of three socialists believe that Vivas has defended Ceuta better
The question that connects the survey most directly with the crisis is who has defended the interests of Ceuta better. 75.4% of all respondents point to Vivas. Among PP voters, the percentage reaches 95.4%.
But the politically most significant data is again found in the PSOE. 67% of former socialist voters believe that Vivas has defended the interests of Ceuta better during this crisis.
Only 16.1% point to the Government delegate. Here appears a possible explanation for the extraordinary transfer from PSOE to PP: for a part of the socialist electorate, the crisis seems to have altered the assessment of who better represents the specific interests of the city.
Ceuta reaches September 2 with the crisis still open
The survey is also known on a particularly symbolic date. This Wednesday is Ceuta Day and more than 260 municipalities have announced support gatherings for the city at 8:00 PM.
The initiative was born from the citizen platform Por Ceuta and was later supported by various town halls and by the Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces. In Madrid, the event is scheduled in front of Congress.
The mobilization has also opened a new political battle. The PSOE communicated to its territorial leaders that they would not participate in the calls promoted by the FEMP, while the PP announced that it would support gatherings even in municipalities governed by socialists that did not join institutionally.
JUCIL and JUPOL have also expressed their support for the mobilizations and have demanded more resources and protocols for the forces deployed in Ceuta.
Source: El Mundo/Sigma Dos, published on 2/09/2026
Result of the Sigma Dos survey in Ceuta
The PP of Juan Jesús Vivas would reach 50.5% of the votes and between 13 and 14 seats, enough to achieve an absolute majority in the Assembly of Ceuta. Vox would be the second force, while the PSOE would fall to 5.6% and would retain only one deputy.
| Party | Estimated vote | Seats | Seats 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 50.5% | 13-14 | 9 | +4/+5 |
| Vox | 21.6% | 5-6 | 5 | 0/+1 |
| Ceuta Ya! | 12.2% | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| MDyC | 8.9% | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| PSOE | 5.6% | 1 | 6 | -5 |
Absolute majority: 13 seats. Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo. Fieldwork conducted between August 26 and 30, 2026.