The accelerated development of artificial intelligence (AI) on a global scale is acting as a powerful catalyst for international trade, even in a context of rising tariffs and geopolitical instability, according to the latest edition of the "DHL Globalization Tracker," prepared by DHL together with the Stern School of Business at New York University.
Based on more than 30 million records, the study examines cross-border flows of goods, capital, information, and mobility of people, offering an updated snapshot of the state of globalization.
According to the report, global merchandise trade advanced in the first half of 2026 at a pace faster than any other half-year in the last 15 years, with the only exception being the rebound that occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Among the key drivers is the high demand for goods necessary to deploy AI infrastructures, such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment. The trade of products linked to artificial intelligence accounted for 42% of the increase in merchandise trade in 2025, and its share rose to 76% in the first quarter of 2026, according to calculations from the WTO and the OECD.
The CEO of DHL Express, John Pearson, has pointed out that "the highlight in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs."
"In the end, any AI query depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment, and all the other products behind this technology have to be in the right place at the right time. DHL is the one that connects the companies and markets behind these complex supply chains. As innovation generates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them circulating," he added.
Impact of the war and tariffs
In parallel, the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted major trade corridors, although the consequences were mainly confined to the most exposed areas. The economies with the greatest dependence on this maritime passage were the ones that suffered a more intense impact.
The tariff policy added as a pressure factor. The levies from the United States reached levels not seen in decades, but their global effect turned out to be limited. Among the reasons, the report recalls that the United States accounted for only 13% of global purchases in recent years, and nearly half of those imports were excluded from tariff increases since August 2026.
Moreover, most governments avoided responding with retaliatory measures. Conversely, many reinforced their strategy to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
Improvement in trade forecasts
Looking to the coming years, it is estimated that global goods trade will increase at an annual average of 3.4% until 2029, clearly above the 2.7% recorded in the previous decade.
"What is surprising is not only that global trade continued to grow despite the new tariffs and the war with Iran," highlighted Professor Steven A. Altman, director of DHL's Globalization initiative at the Center for the Future of Management at NYU Stern.
"The outlook is now stronger than before either of the two crises. This reminds us that we must look beyond the most obvious disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The surge in trade driven by AI highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be efficiently offered when specialized producers collaborate across different countries. It also shows how companies are constantly adapting to keep trade moving despite disruptions and political changes," he indicated.
East Asia and the Pacific drive trade
Among the different geographical areas, East Asia and the Pacific was the region with the most vigorous advance. The value of its trade increased by 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Following at a distance were Europe, with 12%, and Sub-Saharan Africa, with 11%.
East Asia and the Pacific not only led the growth but also increased the weight of intraregional trade. This share rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% between January and May 2026. The robust Asian supply chains, which supply the AI boom, have been decisive in this advance.
Decoupling between China and the United States
Another relevant change in international flows is the cooling of economic ties between the United States (U.S.) and China. Nevertheless, the study emphasizes that the effect on the overall global economy remains "surprisingly small." For example, bilateral trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of global trade in 2015, before dropping to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026.
The joint participation of the U.S. and China in international business investment is below 1%. Meanwhile, the closest allies of the U.S. have largely maintained their trade ties with China. This data questions the idea that the break between the two countries is fragmenting the global economy into opposing blocs, according to the report.
A closer examination reveals, however, that direct trade figures do not fully reflect the U.S. dependence on China. Goods arriving in the U.S. market from third countries increasingly incorporate components and materials of Chinese origin. If these indirect imports are also included, U.S. dependence on China has only slightly decreased until 2024, the last year with available data.
Record levels of globalization
Beyond the dynamics of trade and investment, the report assesses the overall evolution of globalization based on international flows of goods, capital, information, and people. It employs a scale ranging from 0% (total absence of cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance irrelevant).
In 2025, the degree of globalization reached a historic high of 25.8%, partly driven by trade and investment operations linked to artificial intelligence.
The four categories of flows contributed to this record, reaching higher levels of internationalization. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows, while the mobility of people continues to be the least integrated dimension.
How to prepare for new disruptions
In light of this scenario, the document urges business executives to anticipate future disruptions without giving up the benefits of international cooperation.
Although certain economies, sectors, or specific routes may remain exposed to significant risks, the study emphasizes that "global flows in general remain strong."
For this reason, it points out that "decisions such as the relocation of production should seek a balance between the resilience of the supply chain and the advantages offered by global reach and market access," and warns that "companies that withdraw from international markets while their competitors remain active globally may risk weakening their competitive position."