Iustitia Europa bursts into Madrid, divides the right's vote, and threatens to worsen the left's collapse. According to two polls consulted, lthe party would obtain around four to five deputies with 12.5% of the votes. These polls show how the PP is retreating, Vox is advancing, and the fragmentation of the progressive space reduces the representation of Sumar, again -if there are no leftist pacts-, leaving Podemos out of Congress, while the PSOE also loses seats.
The electoral race of 29N in Madrid opens a different scenario from the last general elections. The Popular Party continues as the first force, but loses ground while Vox grows and Iustitia Europa bursts in with a vote estimate of 12.5% that would allow it to contest several seats. In parallel -and according to the two polls worked by Iustitia, which DEMÓCRATA has had access to-, the PSOE retreats and the candidacies situated to its left see how their representation space narrows.
The picture drawn by the poll points to a redistribution of the vote among the different ideological families, with direct consequences on the distribution of the 37 deputies that Madrid elects.
The data provided to DEMÓCRATA attributes to the PP a 33.8% of the votes; to the PSOE, a 22.7%; to Vox, a 16.5%; to Iustitia Europa, a 12.5%; to Sumar, a 9.2%, and to Podemos, a 2.1%.
The translation of those percentages to seats, through a simulation of the D'Hondt law, offers a first approximation to the magnitude of the change: the PP would obtain around 14 deputies, the PSOE nine, Vox six, Iustitia Europa between four and five, and Sumar three. Podemos would be left without representation.
This is a projection, not a closed result. The final distribution will depend on the valid votes of all the candidacies, the final distribution of support, and participation. But the relevant data is that a force that did not obtain representation in the 2023 general elections -and always according to these polls- could become one of the determining actors in the constituency.

Competition in the electoral space grows
The estimate shows a setback for the popular party compared to July 2023, when they obtained 16 deputies in Madrid with approximately 40.5% of the votes. With the 33.8% that the poll now attributes to them, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party would be around 14 seats. The drop of almost seven points compared to that electoral date would therefore have a parliamentary translation.
Vox, on the other hand, would go from the five deputies obtained in 2023 to an approximate range of six or seven, if an estimate of 16.5% is confirmed. The growth is significant because it occurs in a scenario where the PP remains the most voted force, but no longer concentrates the same percentage of support as three years ago.
To that competition Iustitia Europa is added. Its 12.5% would place it above Sumar in the voting estimate and would open the door to around four to five deputies. If these results are fulfilled, the formation would not only enter Congress through Madrid, but would do so with sufficient representation to modify the expectations of the forces that until now have been competing for those seats.
The consequence is a greater fragmentation of the space located to the right of the PSOE. The PP would maintain a considerable distance over its competitors, but a part of the vote that could have contributed to expanding its representation would appear to be distributed among Vox and Iustitia Europa. The result would not be a replacement of the PP as the leading force, but a more plural distribution of support and seats.
The D'Hondt Law
The effect of Iustitia Europa is not limited to the percentage it registers in the survey. In a constituency like Madrid, where 37 deputies are distributed, the allocation of the last seats depends on the relationship between the quotients of the candidacies competing for the distribution. The D'Hondt law does not distribute deputies in exact proportion to the vote: it compares the results of each list and awards each seat to the highest available quotient.
That is why the entry of a candidacy with double-digit support can alter the representation of several parties. Iustitia Europa would compete for the last seats with the PP, the PSOE, Vox, and Sumar. Each deputy it obtained would reduce the chances of another party reaching the next winning quotient. The effect would be particularly noticeable in the formations with fewer votes, which have fewer competitive quotients.
The central simulation of DEMOCRAT places Iustitia at four-five seats, compared to the six that Sumar obtained in 2023. In the case of Yolanda Díaz's formation, the setback would be three deputies, while the PSOE would go from ten to nine and the PP, from 16 to around 14. Vox, for its part, would improve its representation.
The left loses representation and Podemos is left out
The setback is not limited to the PSOE. The estimate grants the socialists 22.7% of the votes, compared to around 27.9% that they achieved in Madrid in 2023. The drop of just over five points would leave them around nine deputies, one less than the current ten.
Pending new agreements on the left side, it seems that the most visible blow in terms of representation would affect Sumar. The candidacy, which obtained six deputies in Madrid in 2023 with approximately 15.4% of the votes, now appears with 9.2%. This loss of more than six points would translate into about three seats, half of what it obtained in the last general elections.
Podemos, with 2.1%, would fall below the legal threshold of 3% of valid votes required to participate in the distribution in the constituency. In 2023 it did not run separately, but integrated into Sumar, so its current percentage cannot be compared with an independent result from that call.
The picture of the left in Madrid would therefore be that of a weakened PSOE and a space to its left with less representation.
The average of the polls and the CIS offer two different pictures
The Madrid poll should be read in parallel with the national surveys, although they are not directly comparable. The average published by Onda Cero with data up to October 12 places the PP at 32.2%, the PSOE at 26.6%, and Vox at 18.6%. Sumar obtains 6.4% and Podemos, 2.9%.
The average confirms the strength of Vox and a competitive scenario among the main parties, but does not incorporate Iustitia Europa as a national candidacy comparable to those appearing in the average.
The latest barometer from the CIS, published on October 14 and based on 5,025 interviews conducted between October 1 and 6, offers a very different image: it attributes 34% of the votes to the PSOE, compared to 22.2% for the PP, and places Vox at 17.1%. Sumar/Frente Amplio reaches 6.1% and Podemos, 3.1%.
The public body thus grants the socialists an advantage of 11.8 points over the populars.
The differences between the CIS and the average of surveys show to what extent the national estimate depends on the institute, the methodology, and the date of the fieldwork. None of those figures allow for the automatic transfer of the result to the distribution in Madrid, where the presence of Iustitia Europa introduces an additional variable.
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Vox shoots up more than expected in national polls
The advance of Vox in Madrid fits with a trend that DEMÓCRATA has pointed out in its information about the latest national projections. Two demographic studies that the newspaper has accessed place Santiago Abascal's party close to 75 seats, the PP around 124, and the PSOE below 120. That estimate points to a Vox with greater capacity to condition the overall result than what other scenarios reflect.
The national evolution and the Madrid one are not equivalent, but they do share one element: Vox increases its weight while the PP stops concentrating alone a part of the vote that it traditionally disputed with the harder right. In Madrid, the emergence of Iustitia Europa adds a third candidacy with the capacity to obtain representation and complicates even more any projection based on the distribution of 2023.
The result is a more fragmented electoral map. The PP would continue to lead the Madrid classification, but with fewer deputies; Vox would expand its representation and Iustitia Europa could debut in Congress with a group of several seats. On the left, the fall of the PSOE and the loss of strength of Sumar would reduce the number of deputies from that space, while Podemos would be left out of the distribution.
The key to the electoral night would not only be in who wins in votes, but in how the last seats are distributed. With a system like D'Hondt, a candidacy that enters strongly can modify the representation of its competitors even without becoming the first force. And that is precisely what turns Iustitia Europa into one of the central unknowns of the Madrid projection for the 29N.
Two polls
In any case, and up to today, only two polls offer specific projections for Madrid. At least two published polls provide a projection of seats for the Madrid constituency ahead of the general elections on November 29.
The NC Report survey, commissioned by Iustitia Europa and published on August 11, where this party was then attributed four deputies with 11.4% of the votes. Meanwhile, Sigma Dos for El Mundo, in the month of October placed the PP and the PSOE with eight seats each in the Madrid constituency.