A survey gives Iustitia Europa fourth force in Madrid on the 29N, after PP (33.8%), PSOE (22.7%) and Vox (16.4%)

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Elecciones 29N · Encuestas

La media de las encuestas

Media a 21 de octubre de 2026 · 15 institutos

  • PP31,6 %
  • PSOE26,9 %
  • Vox18,7 %
  • Sumar6,3 %
  • Podemos3,1 %
  • ERC2,2 %
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Media del último estudio de cada instituto en 30 días y su evolución semanal desde el 23J. Partidos con al menos un 2 %.

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Elecciones generales del 29 de noviembre · Demócrata

Iustitia Europa bursts into Madrid, divides the right's vote, and threatens to worsen the left's collapse. According to two polls consulted, lthe party would obtain around four to five deputies with 12.5% of the votes. These polls show how the PP is retreating, Vox is advancing, and the fragmentation of the progressive space reduces the representation of Sumar, again -if there are no leftist pacts-, leaving Podemos out of Congress, while the PSOE also loses seats.

The electoral race of 29N in Madrid opens a different scenario from the last general elections. The Popular Party continues as the first force, but loses ground while Vox grows and Iustitia Europa bursts in with a vote estimate of 12.5% that would allow it to contest several seats. In parallel -and according to the two polls worked by Iustitia, which DEMÓCRATA has had access to-, the PSOE retreats and the candidacies situated to its left see how their representation space narrows.

The picture drawn by the poll points to a redistribution of the vote among the different ideological families, with direct consequences on the distribution of the 37 deputies that Madrid elects.

The data provided to DEMÓCRATA attributes to the PP a 33.8% of the votes; to the PSOE, a 22.7%; to Vox, a 16.5%; to Iustitia Europa, a 12.5%; to Sumar, a 9.2%, and to Podemos, a 2.1%.

The translation of those percentages to seats, through a simulation of the D'Hondt law, offers a first approximation to the magnitude of the change: the PP would obtain around 14 deputies, the PSOE nine, Vox six, Iustitia Europa between four and five, and Sumar three. Podemos would be left without representation.

This is a projection, not a closed result. The final distribution will depend on the valid votes of all the candidacies, the final distribution of support, and participation. But the relevant data is that a force that did not obtain representation in the 2023 general elections -and always according to these polls- could become one of the determining actors in the constituency.

dym encuesta madrid1
Survey from the DYM Institute.

Competition in the electoral space grows

The estimate shows a setback for the popular party compared to July 2023, when they obtained 16 deputies in Madrid with approximately 40.5% of the votes. With the 33.8% that the poll now attributes to them, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party would be around 14 seats. The drop of almost seven points compared to that electoral date would therefore have a parliamentary translation.

Vox, on the other hand, would go from the five deputies obtained in 2023 to an approximate range of six or seven, if an estimate of 16.5% is confirmed. The growth is significant because it occurs in a scenario where the PP remains the most voted force, but no longer concentrates the same percentage of support as three years ago.

To that competition Iustitia Europa is added. Its 12.5% would place it above Sumar in the voting estimate and would open the door to around four to five deputies. If these results are fulfilled, the formation would not only enter Congress through Madrid, but would do so with sufficient representation to modify the expectations of the forces that until now have been competing for those seats.

The consequence is a greater fragmentation of the space located to the right of the PSOE. The PP would maintain a considerable distance over its competitors, but a part of the vote that could have contributed to expanding its representation would appear to be distributed among Vox and Iustitia Europa. The result would not be a replacement of the PP as the leading force, but a more plural distribution of support and seats.

The D'Hondt Law

The effect of Iustitia Europa is not limited to the percentage it registers in the survey. In a constituency like Madrid, where 37 deputies are distributed, the allocation of the last seats depends on the relationship between the quotients of the candidacies competing for the distribution. The D'Hondt law does not distribute deputies in exact proportion to the vote: it compares the results of each list and awards each seat to the highest available quotient.

That is why the entry of a candidacy with double-digit support can alter the representation of several parties. Iustitia Europa would compete for the last seats with the PP, the PSOE, Vox, and Sumar. Each deputy it obtained would reduce the chances of another party reaching the next winning quotient. The effect would be particularly noticeable in the formations with fewer votes, which have fewer competitive quotients.

The central simulation of DEMOCRAT places Iustitia at four-five seats, compared to the six that Sumar obtained in 2023. In the case of Yolanda Díaz's formation, the setback would be three deputies, while the PSOE would go from ten to nine and the PP, from 16 to around 14. Vox, for its part, would improve its representation.

The left loses representation and Podemos is left out

The setback is not limited to the PSOE. The estimate grants the socialists 22.7% of the votes, compared to around 27.9% that they achieved in Madrid in 2023. The drop of just over five points would leave them around nine deputies, one less than the current ten.

Pending new agreements on the left side, it seems that the most visible blow in terms of representation would affect Sumar. The candidacy, which obtained six deputies in Madrid in 2023 with approximately 15.4% of the votes, now appears with 9.2%. This loss of more than six points would translate into about three seats, half of what it obtained in the last general elections.

Podemos, with 2.1%, would fall below the legal threshold of 3% of valid votes required to participate in the distribution in the constituency. In 2023 it did not run separately, but integrated into Sumar, so its current percentage cannot be compared with an independent result from that call.

The picture of the left in Madrid would therefore be that of a weakened PSOE and a space to its left with less representation.

The average of the polls and the CIS offer two different pictures

The Madrid poll should be read in parallel with the national surveys, although they are not directly comparable. The average published by Onda Cero with data up to October 12 places the PP at 32.2%, the PSOE at 26.6%, and Vox at 18.6%. Sumar obtains 6.4% and Podemos, 2.9%.

The average confirms the strength of Vox and a competitive scenario among the main parties, but does not incorporate Iustitia Europa as a national candidacy comparable to those appearing in the average.

The latest barometer from the CIS, published on October 14 and based on 5,025 interviews conducted between October 1 and 6, offers a very different image: it attributes 34% of the votes to the PSOE, compared to 22.2% for the PP, and places Vox at 17.1%. Sumar/Frente Amplio reaches 6.1% and Podemos, 3.1%.

The public body thus grants the socialists an advantage of 11.8 points over the populars.

The differences between the CIS and the average of surveys show to what extent the national estimate depends on the institute, the methodology, and the date of the fieldwork. None of those figures allow for the automatic transfer of the result to the distribution in Madrid, where the presence of Iustitia Europa introduces an additional variable.

Vox shoots up more than expected in national polls

The advance of Vox in Madrid fits with a trend that DEMÓCRATA has pointed out in its information about the latest national projections. Two demographic studies that the newspaper has accessed place Santiago Abascal's party close to 75 seats, the PP around 124, and the PSOE below 120. That estimate points to a Vox with greater capacity to condition the overall result than what other scenarios reflect.

The national evolution and the Madrid one are not equivalent, but they do share one element: Vox increases its weight while the PP stops concentrating alone a part of the vote that it traditionally disputed with the harder right. In Madrid, the emergence of Iustitia Europa adds a third candidacy with the capacity to obtain representation and complicates even more any projection based on the distribution of 2023.

The result is a more fragmented electoral map. The PP would continue to lead the Madrid classification, but with fewer deputies; Vox would expand its representation and Iustitia Europa could debut in Congress with a group of several seats. On the left, the fall of the PSOE and the loss of strength of Sumar would reduce the number of deputies from that space, while Podemos would be left out of the distribution.

The key to the electoral night would not only be in who wins in votes, but in how the last seats are distributed. With a system like D'Hondt, a candidacy that enters strongly can modify the representation of its competitors even without becoming the first force. And that is precisely what turns Iustitia Europa into one of the central unknowns of the Madrid projection for the 29N.

Two polls

In any case, and up to today, only two polls offer specific projections for Madrid. At least two published polls provide a projection of seats for the Madrid constituency ahead of the general elections on November 29.

The NC Report survey, commissioned by Iustitia Europa and published on August 11, where this party was then attributed four deputies with 11.4% of the votes. Meanwhile, Sigma Dos for El Mundo, in the month of October placed the PP and the PSOE with eight seats each in the Madrid constituency.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What are the necessary procedures for Iustitia Europa to present a candidacy in the general elections for Madrid?

There is not enough information found in the consulted sources to specify the procedures that Iustitia Europa must follow to present a candidacy for Madrid. To avoid giving you unverified requirements, deadlines, or numbers of endorsements, I distinguish below the checks that this candidacy needs; this list is a preparation guide, not a confirmation of the applicable procedure.

1. Specify which candidacy is intended to be presented

The first point to clarify is whether Iustitia Europa intends to run for the Congress, the Senate, or both chambers. It is not advisable to treat it as a single candidacy without checking the differences between their documents, composition, and requirements. The specific electoral call must also be identified, as the calendar to organize all actions must be obtained from it.

2. Verify the legal status of Iustitia Europa

Before preparing the submission, it is necessary to verify the organization's status and who can act on its behalf. The working documentation should allow answering these questions:

  • Under what name and acronym does it intend to run?
  • Is its status as a political formation authorized to present candidacies accredited?
  • Who has the authority to adopt the decision to run and carry out the corresponding actions?
  • Will it run separately or through a coalition?

The specific situation of Iustitia Europa and the identity of its representatives have not been verified here. Therefore, it would not be correct to consider these points resolved.

3. Determine if endorsements are needed

This is one of the points that must be resolved before starting a signature collection. It must be checked whether it is required to prove support, what circumstance determines this obligation, and what rules apply to each chamber. Afterwards, the calculation base corresponding to Madrid and the resulting figure must be confirmed.

Equally important is verifying who can sign, how their status is accredited, what model must be used, and how the endorsements are authenticated. Without this verification, a signature collection might not be valid for the submission. No verified number of endorsements has been obtained for this candidacy.

4. Prepare candidates and documentation

The preparation should include a review of the conditions to be a candidate and possible incompatibilities or causes of ineligibility. The applicable composition rules, the number of people who must appear, and the treatment of substitutes must also be verified.

As a documentary checklist, it is advisable to inquire about the presentation letter, the acceptances of the candidates, the required declarations, identification documents, and the accreditation of those acting on behalf of the formation. This enumeration does not replace official forms nor confirms that all these documents are required under the same terms.

5. Finalize the calendar and review the submission

The working file should record, with official backing, the body before which it is submitted, the accepted channel, and the deadlines. It should also clarify how possible defects are communicated, what possibilities exist to correct them, and how the decision about the candidacy is known.

The practical priority is to obtain an official response on four issues: the status of Iustitia Europa, candidacy for the Congress or the Senate, the need and validation of endorsements, and the submission calendar. Until these checks are available, it would not be responsible to provide you with a deadline, a number of signatures, or a closed list of documents as if they were confirmed.

What powers and functions does the Congress of Deputies have in the Spanish parliamentary system?

The Congress of Deputies is the central chamber of the Spanish parliamentary system. Although the Cortes Generales are bicameral (Congress and Senate), the Constitution grants the Congress a clearly predominant position: it decides the investiture of the President of the Government, can bring down the Executive through a motion of censure, and has the final say in most laws. Its powers are grouped into four major blocks: legislative, government oversight, budgetary, and other relevant constitutional functions.

1. Legislative function

The Congress participates in the drafting of laws together with the Senate, but with clear preeminence:

  • Legislative initiative: it can register and process government bills and private members' bills presented by parliamentary groups, by at least fifteen deputies, or by other institutions with the right of initiative (such as autonomous assemblies).
  • Debate and amendment: initiatives are debated in plenary and in committees; deputies can present total amendments (return or alternative text) and partial amendments to modify specific articles.
  • Approval of laws: the Congress approves the text and sends it to the Senate. If the Senate introduces changes or vetoes the text, the Congress can override the veto or reject the amendments by absolute majority, or by simple majority after a certain period, imposing its final version.
  • Decree-laws: it controls the use of this figure by the Government, as it must validate or repeal decree-laws within a very short period. It can also decide to process them later as ordinary bills, opening the door to amendments.
  • Organic laws and constitutional reforms: it intervenes in the approval of organic laws (which require an absolute majority in a final vote on the whole) and in constitutional reform procedures, in coordination with the Senate.
2. Political control function over the Government

In a parliamentary system, the political responsibility of the Government is articulated mainly before the Congress:

  • Investiture of the President of the Government: the candidate proposed by the Crown must obtain the confidence of the Chamber in the Congress. Without that majority, there is no possible government.
  • Motion of censure: the Congress can force the Government to resign by approving a constructive motion of censure, which includes an alternative candidate for the presidency. If it succeeds, the censuring candidate becomes president.
  • Vote of confidence: the President of the Government can voluntarily submit to the Congress to verify if he maintains support; if lost, he must resign.
  • Ordinary control: exercised through control sessions, oral and written questions, interpellations, appearances of ministers and senior officials, investigative commissions, or requests for documentation. All this allows oversight of the Executive's actions and the application of laws.
3. Budgetary and financial function

The Congress also occupies a central position in budgetary matters:

  • Approval of the General State Budgets: the project is prepared by the Government, but the Congress examines, amends, and approves it in the first instance. The Senate can propose amendments or a veto, but the Congress can confirm its own criteria.
  • Control of budget execution: through debates on budgetary stability, debt, deficit, reports from the Court of Auditors, and appearances of economic officials.
  • Tax and financial regulations: it participates in the approval of tax laws (taxes, fees, levies) and the major rules of public spending and debt.
4. Other constitutional powers

Additionally, the Congress exercises other relevant functions:

  • Relations with the Crown: it intervenes in acts such as the proclamation of the king or queen, authorization of abdication, or appointment of regents, always within the constitutional framework and together with the Senate.
  • States of alarm, exception, and siege: it controls and, if applicable, authorizes or extends the Government's decisions in serious crisis situations.
  • Foreign policy and defense: it participates, along with the Senate, in authorizing certain international treaties and decisions on the use of the Armed Forces abroad, as well as debating the general orientation of foreign policy.
  • Constitutional and institutionally relevant bodies: it elects or proposes, sometimes jointly with the Senate, members of the Constitutional Court, the General Council of the Judiciary, the Court of Auditors, the Ombudsman, and other regulatory and oversight entities.
  • Political representation and articulation of pluralism: through its 350 deputies, distributed in parliamentary groups, the Congress channels Spain's political and territorial pluralism, serving as the central forum for public debate and normative production.

Overall, these powers make the Congress of Deputies the core of state political life: confidence in the Government, approval of key laws, and the general orientation of major public policies ultimately depend on the majorities built in this Chamber.

What legal requirements must be met for a party to obtain representation in the Madrid constituency?

If you are referring to the elections to the Congress of Deputies, to obtain representation for Madrid a candidacy must be validly submitted and proclaimed, reach at least 3% of the valid votes cast in the province, and secure a seat through the D’Hondt allocation. Surpassing that percentage allows participation in the allocation, but does not guarantee by itself obtaining a deputy.

The main reference is the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime —LOREG—, especially articles 161 to 169. These rules correspond to the Congress: they should not be automatically applied to elections to the Assembly of Madrid or the Senate.

1. Submit a candidacy and obtain its proclamation

Article 161 establishes that each province constitutes an electoral constituency. Therefore, the relevant votes to obtain deputies for Madrid are those cast in that province, not the party's national result.

The candidacy must be submitted as a list before the Provincial Electoral Board, which is the competent body for its submission and proclamation, according to article 169. Submitted and proclaimed candidacies are published in the BOE. The seats obtained are assigned to the people included in the list following their order of placement.

Additionally, article 168 requires the designation of electoral representatives: the party's general representative is designated before the Central Electoral Board before the ninth day after the call; the candidacies' representatives before the eleventh. The latter must accept their designation before the Provincial Board before submitting the candidacy.

2. Provide endorsements when mandatory

Not all parties need to collect signatures. According to article 169.3:

  • Parties, federations, or coalitions without representation in either Chamber in the previous election need signatures from at least 0.1% of the registered voters in the Madrid census to present their candidacy there.
  • Elector groupings, which are a different route from parties, need signatures from at least 1% of the constituency census.
  • No voter can provide their signature to more than one candidacy.

These percentages are calculated over the electoral census, not over those who finally vote. They are requirements to run, distinct from the percentage of votes needed to enter the allocation.

3. Reach 3% of valid votes

Article 163.1.a excludes from the allocation candidacies that do not obtain "at least 3 percent of the valid votes cast in the constituency." Reaching exactly 3% does allow participation.

To calculate it, votes for candidacies and blank votes are summed. Null votes and abstentions are not part of that total. For example, with 3,000,000 valid votes, a candidacy would need at least 90,000 votes to surpass the legal threshold.

4. Obtain a sufficient quotient in the allocation

Then D’Hondt is applied: the votes of each admitted candidacy are successively divided by 1, 2, 3, and so on up to the number of Madrid seats. Deputies are assigned to the highest quotients, in descending order. The number of seats in the province is set by the decree of each call according to article 162.

Therefore, there is no fixed number of votes that guarantees representation: it depends on the valid votes, their distribution among candidacies, and the available seats. If two quotients tie, preference is given to the candidacy with more total votes; if they also coincide, the first tie is resolved by lottery and subsequent ties alternately.

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Which party appears as the fourth force in Madrid according to the latest survey by the Instituto DYM?

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How many deputies would the Partido Popular obtain in Madrid according to the D'Hondt law simulation based on the survey?

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Why would Podemos be left out of Congress according to the projection?

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