Europe is going through an economic paradox. While consumption remains weak, the construction residential is at historically low levels and industrial sectors such as automobile and chemicals are facing difficulties, a new wave of investment is transforming the European economy.
The picture presented by Caroline Gauthier, co-head of equities at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, points precisely in that direction. In an analysis of the major investment cycles taking shape in Europe -shared with DEMÓCRATA-, Gauthier identifies four megacycles capable of sustaining corporate profits despite the weakness of economic growth: artificial intelligence, electrification, infrastructure, and defense.
European business investment could thus become one of the main engines of the economy in the coming years. According to Gauthier's analysis, corporate profits could increase by 17% this year, while the capital expenditure of European industrial companies could grow at an annual rate of 4.5% until 2029, compared to the 0.5% historical trend.
But to take advantage of this opportunity, Europe will have to resolve four challenges. It is not enough to invest: it is also necessary to allow investments to be made, have sufficient energy, modernize networks, and create the conditions for companies to want to establish themselves in European territory.
1. Artificial intelligence: Europe needs data centers
The first major cycle is that of artificial intelligence. The growth of investments from large U.S. technology companies is already benefiting European suppliers that occupy strategic positions in the value chain.
Among them are companies like ASML, specialized in equipment for semiconductor manufacturing; Besi, linked to chip assembly; Prysmian, in cabling, and Schneider Electric, in electrical infrastructure.
But the big question for Europe is now at another point: where the data centers necessary to support the expansion of AI will be installed.
The European Union has set the goal of tripling its data center capacity in the coming years, according to the analysis by Edmond de Rothschild AM. And there appears one of the first risks for European countries.
A data center needs floor space, connectivity, water in certain cooling systems, and, above all, large amounts of stable and competitive electricity.
For this reason, digitalization cannot be analyzed separately from energy.
Europe can aspire to become a hub of artificial intelligence, but countries that hinder the construction of data centers or that cannot guarantee sufficient electricity generation run the risk of being left out of an important part of this new economy.
The opportunity is not only to attract large tech companies. It also affects equipment manufacturers, power grids, cables, semiconductors, cooling systems, construction, and engineering.
AI, ultimately, can become an investment multiplier for the real economy.
2. Energy: without electricity there will be no digital revolution
The second major cycle is that of electrification.
European electricity demand could increase by more than 10% by 2030, about 300 terawatt-hours additional, equivalent to approximately the annual consumption of Italy, according to estimates collected by Gauthier.
Data centers will be part of that increase, but they are not the only factor. The electrification of transport, industry, and heating is already increasing demand.
The European problem, therefore, is not only about producing more electricity. The major pending issue is the networks.
The European Commission estimates that transport and distribution networks will need 1.2 trillion euros of investment by 2040. (EUR-Lex)
The magnitude of the challenge explains why electrification is much more than an energy policy. It is also a matter of industrial competitiveness and economic security.
Networks will need to be larger, but also smarter and more flexible. They will have to integrate a more decentralized and variable generation and connect new production projects with large consumption centers.
And here lies one of the keys for member states: it is not enough to bet on a certain generation technology if there is no network capacity to deliver that electricity where it is needed.
Europe needs to generate, transport, and store energy competitively.
The country that manages to offer abundant, reliable electricity at a competitive price will have a growing advantage in attracting industry and data centers.
Those that do not succeed may lose investments.
3. Infrastructures: decades of pending investment
The third megacycle is that of infrastructures.
Europe has been dragging decades of underfunding in roads, railways, water networks, bridges, tunnels, and other basic infrastructures. To this is now added the need to create new energy corridors and adapt infrastructures to new industrial and geopolitical needs.
The war in Ukraine has also highlighted the strategic importance of energy and transport connections.
Germany offers one of the most important examples: its plan includes 500 billion euros of investment over twelve years.
But the phenomenon is not limited to Germany. The European funds of NextGenerationEU and REPowerEU, along with national programs, are driving projects in different countries, from Italy and the Netherlands to Eastern Europe.
Investment in infrastructures is no longer just a matter of maintenance.
It is a matter of competitiveness.
An economy with bad roads, saturated electrical networks, insufficient railway connections, or administrative procedures that delay an infrastructure for years loses its capacity to attract companies.
That is why one of the four major challenges for Europe will be to convert the available money into real infrastructures.
And here a transversal problem arises: deadlines.
It is not very useful to have funding if an energy, industrial, or digital project takes so many years to receive permits that the investment ends up moving to another country.
4. Defense: a new strategic industry
The fourth major cycle is that of defense.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed European security priorities and forced member states to consider a structural increase in military spending.
According to estimates collected by Gauthier, European spending could reach 3% of GDP, and even reach 5% if dual-use infrastructures, civil and military, are included.
The consequence goes far beyond arms manufacturers.
The increase in defense investment can benefit industrial, technological, electronics, communications, materials, aerospace, and cybersecurity companies for decades.
And there is an element that can make this cycle durable even if the war in Ukraine ends: Europe is rebuilding its defense capacity after years of lower investment.
The issue will be to determine how much of that spending translates into European industry and how much ends up benefiting foreign suppliers.
Here the concept of economic sovereignty reappears.
Energy and data centers can decide who wins
The four megacycles are interconnected.
Artificial intelligence needs data centers. Data centers need electricity. Electricity needs networks and infrastructures. And new infrastructures and industrial chains need security and defense.
That is why Europe cannot tackle each of these challenges in isolation.
In this sense, the European Commission already points out that the modernization of electrical networks will require investments of 1.2 trillion euros by 2040 and that it will also be necessary to mobilize private capital.
Europe needs private capital
There is a fifth condition that runs through the four megacycles: money.
European governments cannot finance such a volume of investments on their own. Hence, Gauthier highlights that European companies in the STOXX 600, excluding the financial sector, accumulate a record figure of 1.5 trillion euros in cash deployed annually and therefore have significant capacity to invest.
The challenge, therefore, is to ensure that this capital is directed towards Europe. And the EU's joint financing mechanisms - argue Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management - can play an important role, just like the future Capital Markets Union.
The European budget already has a financial framework of about 1.2 trillion euros for 2021-2027, complemented by about 800 billion from NextGenerationEU. But the scale of the needs makes it essential to multiply private investment.
The risk of a two-speed Europe
The analysis from Edmond de Rothschild AM leaves a warning in the background. Europe may be entering a new stage of investment after decades of underfunding. But not all countries are equally prepared to take advantage of it.
States that are able to offer competitive energy, modern networks, industrial land, data centers, efficient infrastructures, and fast administrative procedures - this consultancy emphasizes - will be able to attract a growing share of investment.
Those who delay these projects may lose positions. So, the question is no longer just how much money Europe invests. It is where data centers are built, where electricity is generated, where components are manufactured, and where the new industry is installed.
The energy transition, artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and defense can thus become the four major investment engines of the European economy. But they can also be a test of competitiveness among its own states, as -subscribes Edmond de Rothschild-, Europe has capital, leading companies, and a huge need for modernization and, the challenge -concludes- is to ensure that this opportunity does not become another lost decade due to lack of energy, networks, infrastructure, or capacity to execute investments.