The interest rates are changing the market rules again. After months in which a good part of the investors took for granted a process of monetary easing, the persistence of inflation in the United States and Europe has returned to the screens a different possibility: that the price of money remains high for a longer time and even rises again.
The scenario would have very different consequences within the IBEX 35. For an insurer like Mapfre, higher yields in fixed income can progressively improve the income from its investments. For a bank like Bankinter, high rates can sustain financial margins, but they can also make mortgages more expensive, weaken credit demand, and raise the risk of default.
The evolution of both companies can be followed directly in the profiles of Mapfre and Bankinter within the new quotation space of Demócrata.
Why the markets are talking about higher rates again
The change in expectations has two major focuses.
In the United States, Kevin Warsh used his intervention in Jackson Hole to warn that inflation remains too high. His message led the markets to increase their bets on a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve if the upcoming data does not show sufficient moderation.
In Europe, the ECB also maintains a position of caution. In July, it left its three official rates unchanged and reiterated that it will decide based on inflation, economic risks, and the transmission of monetary policy.
The result is a financial world in which a quick return to cheap money is no longer taken for granted.
What it means for Mapfre that bonds pay more
Insurance companies receive premiums from their clients long before they have to face part of the payments associated with claims. During that period, they invest large amounts of money, especially in fixed income.
When bonds offer higher yields, new investments and the amounts that mature and are reinvested can be contracted at higher rates.
This process can progressively benefit groups like Mapfre.
It does not mean that a rate hike automatically translates into an increase in profit. One must consider the duration of the existing portfolio, the losses or gains from the bonds, the evolution of the insurance business, the cost of claims, exchange rates, and the situation of each market.
But it does alter one of the central variables of its financial business.
Readers can consult the evolution of the value in the Mapfre stock quote on Demócrata, which integrates market price and company tracking.
Bankinter: high rates have two sides
In a bank, the mechanism is different.
High rates can allow charging more for loans and mortgages and improve the performance of certain assets. If the cost at which it pays interest on its deposits does not increase in the same proportion, the interest margin can remain high.
This has been one of the main supports of the European banking business after the end of negative rates.
But the relationship has a limit.
The more expensive it is to finance a home, buy a car, or make a business investment, the lower the demand for new loans can be. Beyond a certain point, pressure also increases on families and companies already in debt.
This makes banks potential beneficiaries of moderately high rates, but not necessarily of an unlimited rise in the price of money.
The Bankinter quote on Demócrata allows tracking how the market interprets that combination of margins, growth, and risk.
What happens with mortgages and the Euribor
For households, the most visible channel goes through mortgages.
The twelve-month Euribor reflects market expectations about the evolution of money in the eurozone and is the most common reference for Spanish variable-rate mortgages.
Bankinter's Analysis Department estimated in July that the twelve-month Euribor could move in an approximate range of 2.65% to 2.75% during 2026 and from 2.55% to 2.65% in 2027.
These are forecasts, not guaranteed values.
If expectations about the ECB harden, the Euribor may react even before the central bank officially changes its rates.
Who wins and who loses within the IBEX 35
The effect does not end with banks and insurers.
Higher rates increase the financing cost for companies, which tends to particularly harm highly indebted businesses or those that need large amounts of capital to grow.
They also modify the valuation that investors are willing to pay for future profits. When risk-free assets offer a higher return, buying stocks requires a higher potential reward.
The impact may be different for electric companies, real estate, construction companies, telecoms, or growth companies.
That is why the aggregated behavior can be followed in the quotation of the IBEX 35 of Demócrata, from where individual sheets of its components can be accessed.
The new scenario does not mean that all banks will rise
There is a temptation that should be avoided.
"High rates equal rising banks" is an excessive simplification.
The Stock Market discounts future expectations. If a bank already has a high financial margin incorporated in its price, a change in rates may not produce the seemingly logical reaction. The quality of credit, costs, growth, provisions, dividends, and expectations of each entity also weigh in.
The same happens with Mapfre. A better return on investments can coexist with other negative factors for the insurance business.
These relationships serve to understand what variables the market is looking at, not to mechanically anticipate the direction of a stock.
The U.S. data that could move everything again
The next big clue will come with the employment report from the United States.
After the weak data from July, a much stronger hiring than expected could reinforce expectations of a tougher Federal Reserve. A weak labor market would have the opposite effect and force an evaluation of how far the Fed can raise rates without harming the economy.
The reaction would quickly transfer to U.S. bonds, the dollar, European debt, and expectations about central banks.
There lies the thread that connects Washington with Madrid: an employment figure published thousands of kilometers away can modify expectations about rates and end up impacting the valuations of Mapfre, Bankinter, and the entire Spanish Stock Market.
The IBEX enters September with rates again in the spotlight
The Spanish index ended Friday at 20,041.90 points and closed the week with a rise of 0.4%.
The figure places the IBEX around a very visible psychological reference just as the market returns to discuss what will happen with the price of money.
In the coming days, it will be necessary to simultaneously observe eurozone inflation, U.S. labor data, expectations about the Fed and the ECB, and the reaction of banks and insurers.
Demócrata allows following that evolution from the real-time quotations of the IBEX 35, Mapfre, and Bankinter.