The International Energy Agency (IEA) has applied a strong cut to its projections for global crude demand and supply for 2026 due to the absence of an agreement that allows for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, contrary to what was expected just a month ago. This situation will keep oil prices at high levels, while global reserves have fallen to levels not seen since April 2025.
"The new disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have hindered the recovery of oil markets, underscoring the urgency of reopening it," the agency affiliated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) noted in its August bulletin. In this report, it warns that the markets for diesel, aviation kerosene, and gasoline are tightening due to the drop in exports from Gulf countries and Russia, during the peak summer travel season.
"In light of the lack of an agreement that allows for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unobstructed transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, we have again reduced our supply forecasts for the rest of the year," the entity added, attributing the deterioration of its calculations to these tensions.
According to the new estimates, the IEA calculates that global oil demand will decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, which implies an additional decline of 510,000 barrels per day compared to what was projected a month ago, "due to the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices," factors that continue to weigh down crude consumption.
However, the agency expects this contraction to soften over the months: from 4.9 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 to 2.8 mb/d in the third quarter of 2026, before returning to positive territory in the last three months of the year. Thus, it anticipates that global oil demand will rebound by 2.4 mb/d in 2027.
In the supply chapter, the IEA highlights that in July there was an increase of 2.4 mb/d, reaching a total of 101.5 mb/d. However, it points out that this volume is still 6.3 mb/d lower than recorded a year earlier, with 8.3 mb/d of production in the Gulf region still halted.
"The resumption of hostilities and maritime disruptions in July and early August undermined recovery efforts," explains the agency, which has revised down its crude production forecast. It now estimates an average decline of 4.3 mb/d in 2026, down to 102 mb/d, although it anticipates a rebound in 2027, when supply would increase by 8.3 mb/d, up to 110.3 mb/d.
In parallel, observed global oil reserves decreased by 69 million barrels in July due to new disruptions in exports from the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, which has caused a sharp decline in the volume of crude in transit.
As a result, by the end of July, observed inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025, after an accumulated reduction of 410 million barrels, equivalent to 2.7 mb/d, between the end of February and the end of July.
"While the market is expected to return to surplus by the end of this year, risks remain considerable and the urgency to reopen the strait has increased, given that available reserves are rapidly depleting," the IEA has warned, emphasizing the fragility of the balance between supply and demand in the international oil market.