The activity of the French private sector deteriorated again in October, in a context marked by social tensions in the country and instability in the debt markets. According to the preliminary data of the composite PMI index, the indicator has fallen to 48.4 points from the 51.1 recorded in September, its worst mark in four months and a clear sign of economic contraction.
In detail, the PMI of services in France fell in October to 48.4 points, compared to 51.2 in the previous month, reaching its lowest level in the last two months. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI dropped to an 11-month low, at 49.3 points, down from the 50.6 it had reached in September.
"The rebound in economic activity in September turned out to be fleeting, which is not surprising given the rapid and drastic reduction in financial conditions and the increase in political pressures in France during October," commented Joe Hayes, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The survey indicates that these tensions quickly translated into lower purchasing and investment activity: the sales volume of the private sector decreased at the sharpest pace since May. In this sense, the expert warns that the data from October "could be a preview of what is to come," after the business confidence indicator plummeted to its lowest level in six and a half years.
"This reflects companies' concerns about what is shaping up to be extremely uncertain presidential elections in 2027, which exacerbates pre-existing worries about France's fiscal situation," he adds.
At the same time, the composite PMI of Germany reflects a moderation in the growth of business activity. The preliminary reading has stood at 52.8 points, down from 53.8 in the previous month, its worst record in the last two months.
This cooling of the expansion pace of the German private sector is due to the lower dynamism of services, whose PMI has decreased to 51.7 points, from 52.9 in September, while the manufacturing PMI has improved slightly to 54.2 points, above the 53.9 of the previous month.