NATO rehearses the day the United States says "fend for yourselves"

The allies are already working on a plan to replace part of the military capabilities that Washington provides, anticipating a lesser US commitment to European defense, while Brussels accelerates the strengthening of the continent's industry and strategic autonomy.

7 minutes

p20250818ah 1224 54733770821 o 364ff9

p20250818ah 1224 54733770821 o 364ff9

Add DEMÓCRATA to Google

Ask FREN

Published

Last updated

7 minutes

Most read

It is not a goodbye, it is a see you later. Sometimes breakups are like that, in installments. First comes the "we need to talk"; when you think you have managed to control the shockwave, a "it's better if we take a break" appears; and it all ends with a "it's not you, it's me". This is, more or less, what has been happening in the corridors of NATO in recent months.

European allies are aware that their relationship with the United States is going through one of those strategic crises that can lead to a "temporary cessation of cohabitation". And, therefore, they are already preparing for all possible scenarios. What was considered a remote hypothesis just a few years ago has now become a real operational plan within the Atlantic Alliance.

Sources within the organization acknowledge that Washington has already made clear its intention for certain capabilities that the United States has assumed until now to pass progressively into European hands. In other words, for Europe to take charge once and for all of a much larger part of its own security.

In Brussels, work is already underway with the premise that the world's leading military power will gradually reduce some of the resources it currently contributes to the allied defense structure. This is not an abrupt withdrawal or a formal break, but a profound redefinition of the division of responsibilities within the organization. "Contributions could begin to decrease in areas such as soldiers and physical weaponry. That is, in the most visible and tangible part of military force," explains a diplomatic source consulted by Demócrata.

According to various international media and as confirmed by EU sources, the United States would have already distributed preliminary documents among the allies regarding European contribution expectations in what some circles are already calling 'NATO 3.0'. Within this new division of responsibilities, a partial reduction of certain air and submarine capabilities currently deployed in European territory would fit. Far from being a future scenario, allied negotiating groups want to arrive with an advanced roadmap at the next summit of the organization's leaders, scheduled for July in Ankara.

Thus, unlike on previous occasions, when European capitals held their breath at the threats of the US president —as when he openly acknowledged in April that "NATO never convinced him"—, now work is already underway on a much more concrete hypothesis: a White House significantly less involved in the defense of the continent. The process of strategic burden sharing is already underway, acknowledge several diplomatic sources consulted in Brussels.

Spain seeks to gain weight in the new distribution

It is in this context that Spain wants to demonstrate to its allies not only its military capability but also its political commitment to the organization's objectives.

In the environment of the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, it has been studied how the country can contribute to the new distribution of capabilities and responsibilities. According to sources familiar with the conversations, Madrid would have already submitted preliminary drafts with possible national contributions to cover part of the gaps that Washington may leave. Spain would not be alone. A large group of Alliance members is already working on similar initiatives with the aim of identifying those capabilities where Europe can assume greater operational responsibility.

The intention is that national commitments to compensate for the US withdrawal can be defined before the July meeting, after an intense round of technical and political meetings among allies.

The Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, receives the deployed personnel of the Lebanon Brigade XLIV upon their return to national territory, at the Air Base, on May 22, 2026, in Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid (Spain). Diego Radames / Europa Press
The Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, receives the deployed personnel of the Lebanon Brigade XLIV upon their return to national territory, at the Air Base, on May 22, 2026, in Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid (Spain). Diego Radames / Europa Press -

The objective is not only to respond to an American demand. There is also a growing conviction within NATO that Europe must strengthen its operational autonomy to guarantee its long-term security, especially in an increasingly volatile international context.

The real problem is not the troops

However, the debate does not revolve exclusively around the number of soldiers or weapons systems deployed on the ground. Strategic ruptures are usually accompanied by much deeper changes. "The Americans will likely start by reducing their presence in physical weaponry and military personnel. We will see partial withdrawals of certain force capabilities," explain diplomatic voices.

The real problem appears when the conversation shifts to the realm of military intelligence. Currently, American dominance in areas such as satellite surveillance, electronic warfare, strategic intelligence gathering, and certain command and control systems is practically absolute. “The really important gap would be in the satellite and electronic warfare domain. There is no immediate alternative capable of replacing the United States,” explain the same sources.

This is a widely shared concern within the organization. While the production of armored vehicles, ammunition, or air defense systems can be increased through industrial investments, building an advanced intelligence architecture requires decades of technological development, complex infrastructure, and enormous financial capacity.

Therefore, numerous allied officials believe that the risk for Europe lies not so much in a reduction of American forces as in a potential decrease in their strategic intelligence support.

From the American administration, the debate is framed in different terms. For the American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the usefulness of the Alliance for Washington must also be evaluated from a logic of reciprocity.

The American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, during an event at the White House, alongside Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Europa Press/Contacto/Andrew Leyden
The American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, during an event at the White House, alongside Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Europa Press/Contacto/Andrew Leyden -

During an appearance before a Senate committee earlier this month, Rubio argued that one of the main benefits the United States derives from NATO is access to military facilities spread across the continent. However, he questioned whether it still made sense to maintain certain dynamics within the organization when “some allies deny the use of bases in contingency situations.” These statements have been interpreted by various European diplomats as a new sign that Washington intends to profoundly review the terms of its commitment to continental security.

The European Industrial Challenge

NATO will therefore have to face a period of adjustment that will require years of adaptation. The process involves progressively strengthening capabilities related to intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, air defense, strategic transport, and operational command, areas in which the Pentagon continues to maintain a technological and operational advantage that is difficult to match.

Otherwise, allied sources warn, a NATO with less US participation could face significant strategic vulnerabilities. However, within the organization itself, there is also a current that considers this process logical.

In May, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Alexus Grynkewich, framed the partial US withdrawal as a natural evolution derived from the strengthening of European capabilities. “This allows it to limit itself to providing those critical capabilities that allies cannot yet provide,” he stated at the time. From this perspective, the progressive reduction of the US role would not necessarily be bad news for Europe, but the definitive push for the Twenty-Seven to assume greater responsibilities in defense matters.

Rutte accelerates industry mobilization

However, the US issue is not the only challenge facing the organization. Europeans are aware that, to date, the continent's defense industry is still not fully self-sufficient to respond to all the strategic needs posed by the new geopolitical context.

Therefore, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has made coordinating the allies' demand a top priority to offer greater predictability to European manufacturers. The logic is simple: companies will only significantly increase their production capacities if they have a stable and predictable order book for the coming years.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Christoph Soeder/dpa
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Christoph Soeder/dpa -

To this end, the organization has convened the industrial sector before the July summit to convey an unequivocal message: Europe needs to produce more and do it faster. The forum will serve to align the military needs of member states with the production capabilities of the continental industry, thus reducing some of the bottlenecks that continue to affect the sector.

What is intended, in practice, is that European companies can take off definitively thanks to greater coordination between the spending commitments made by governments and the industrial investments necessary to execute them.

Faced with criticism about a possible protectionist turn in defense matters, sources consulted in Brussels reject this interpretation. The priority, they maintain, is to bet on “made in Europe” whenever possible. However, when Community industrial capacity proves insufficient or there is no competitive technological alternative, allies will continue to turn to suppliers from third countries. In that scenario, the United States will continue to be a fundamental partner, although other players such as South Korea are also gaining importance, whose defense industry has consolidated in recent years as one of the most dynamic in the international market.

The conclusion that is beginning to gain ground in Brussels is clear: the debate is no longer about whether Europe should assume more responsibility for its own defense, but about the speed at which it will be able to do so. Because the NATO of the future will continue to count on the United States, but more and more European leaders are assuming that the era in which Washington automatically covered any strategic deficiency on the continent is coming to an end.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What is the status of the processing of the national commitments of the European allies for the new distribution of responsibilities within NATO?

The new national commitments of the European allies in the distribution of responsibilities within NATO are not being processed as a single treaty to be ratified, but as national packages of spending, capabilities, and contributions to high-readiness forces. At the allied level, the Madrid 2022, Vilnius 2023, and especially The Hague 2025 summits have consolidated 2 % of GDP as a spending floor and have opened the political debate towards 5 % by 2035, but their implementation depends on each parliament. In general, most European countries have already politically assumed the 2 % and are at different stages of budget execution, military programming laws, and capability plans. Therefore, there is no unitary “European ratification,” but rather a mosaic of ongoing national decisions.

General NATO and EU Framework

At the NATO level, commitments have been mainly set through summit declarations, which establish 2 % of GDP as a minimum reference and, according to the Alliance's monitoring, all European allies would reach that threshold by 2025, with a strong increase in defense spending in Europe and Canada (DSN). The Hague 2025 summit would have raised the political ambition towards spending around 5 % by 2035, which implies, de facto, that each government must reconfigure its budgets and defense plans for the next decade (CEOExEuropa).

In the EU, the focus is not a new NATO distribution treaty, but the coordination of capabilities and industry through instruments such as PESCO, CARD, the European Defence Fund, or new financing schemes like EDIP and SAFE, aimed at joint purchases and industrial strengthening (CESEDEN – NATO‑EU Defence 2026). An example is the SAFE loan of 43.7 billion euros to Poland to modernize its defense, which is part of this European rearmament effort (El Demócrata – SAFE loan to Poland).

Spain: from NATO decision to internal execution

Spain is one of the cases where the commitments have been most concretely advanced. According to the Government, by 2025 the 2 % of GDP in defense has been reached, five years ahead of the initial 2029 horizon, and it is argued that around 2.1 % is “sufficient and compatible” with the Spanish model (DSN; intervention on The Hague 2025). From a strictly budgetary point of view, Spain still ranks at the bottom in terms of percentage of GDP in 2024 data (1.24 % according to NATO, 1.43 % if additional items are included), hence the leap to 2025 requires an extraordinary effort partly financed with European funds expiring in 2026 (ElDiario.es).

In parliamentary sessions, the Minister of Defense has defended in the Congress Defense Committee the strong budget increase (25.8 % in 2023, with 60.91 % dedicated to productive investment) and has presented the Industrial and Technological Plan for Security and Defense, endowed with 10.471 billion euros, as a key instrument to translate NATO commitments into internal industrial and operational capabilities. All this is processed through the General State Budgets and multi-year plans, without a specific new treaty requiring singular ratification.

In terms of capabilities, Spain already provides command structures and high-readiness forces recognized by NATO, such as the CGTAD in Bétera, the maritime high-readiness component in Rota, and sustained contributions to missile defense and air policing missions in the East (CESEDEN). The internal political debate now focuses on two issues: how to maintain the spending level beyond 2026 and to what extent the effort is compatible with social priorities.

Main European allies

Among the reference partners, data collected by El Demócrata and official bodies show that Germany has raised its spending to around 2.3 % of GDP in 2025, channeled through the federal defense budget and a special fund to modernize the Bundeswehr. The processing is basically budgetary, with Bundestag control, and linked to joint NATO‑EU planning.

France stands around 2 % (2.05 %), fitting its commitments into a revised military programming law that strengthens both nuclear deterrence and European expeditionary capabilities (El Demócrata – France; CESEDEN). Italy follows a logic similar to Spain: harmonizing the NATO dimension with the EU, with most decisions channeled through annual budgets and capability planning.

Poland and the Baltic countries represent the highest effort extreme: Poland allocates around 4.3 % of GDP to defense and the Baltics between 3 and 4 %, focusing almost all internal processing on expanding land forces, air defense, and ammunition reserves (El Demócrata – European NATO spending; Datosmacro – NATO). In Poland, moreover, the reception of the EU SAFE loan has required specific parliamentary decisions and overcoming presidential vetoes to authorize indebtedness and acquisition programs (El Demócrata – Poland presidential veto).

In the Netherlands – host of The Hague 2025 summit – and in the Nordic countries (Sweden and Finland, recently joined NATO), the situation is one of accelerated adjustment: they already meet or approach 2 %, prioritizing interoperability, air defense, and strengthening the northern and Baltic flank (LaSexta – NATO countries; MAEC – NATO members). Their parliaments are approving multi-year budgets and mainly technical legislative adaptations to integrate new responsibilities.

Political assessment of the processing

In summary, the processing of these “new distributions” does not follow a single legal channel, but three parallel national paths: reaching (and eventually exceeding) the 2 % of GDP, approving capability plans and industrial programs, and formalizing high-readiness force commitments. In Spain, the process is advanced in terms of political and budgetary decisions, but with uncertainties about its medium-term sustainability. In the main European allies, the emphasis is more on consolidating large rearmament programs than on ratification debates in the strict sense, except in cases like Poland where the volume of indebtedness and the speed of rearmament have generated specific political frictions.

What are the powers and duties of the NATO Secretary General according to the Alliance's founding treaties?

Concise answer

The NATO founding treaties (basically the 1949 Washington Treaty) barely mention the Secretary General and do not exhaustively detail their powers; the position arises and is defined mainly by subsequent political decisions of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) and by the Alliance's established practice. Essentially, the Secretary General is NATO's highest civilian official, chairs the North Atlantic Council and main committees, acts as political spokesperson and guarantor of allied cohesion, and directs the organization's international civilian structure. They do not have operational military command power nor autonomous decision-making capacity over the use of force: their functions are political leadership, coordination, consensus promotion, and administrative management. Therefore, more than a classic “executive,” the Secretary General is a primus inter pares serving the decisions of the allied States.

Legal basis in the founding treaties

The 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, which is the true founding treaty, does not expressly establish the position of Secretary General nor list their powers. The Treaty merely creates:

– A collective defense Alliance (Article 5).
– A Council in which each State is represented (Article 9).
– The possibility to create “subsidiary bodies” as necessary (Article 9).

On this very open basis, the member States, gathered in the North Atlantic Council, later agree to create a permanent civilian structure and, within it, the figure of the Secretary General as administrative head and political coordinator. That is, the Secretary General's powers derive from Article 9 (Council's authority to organize itself and create bodies) and subsequent Council decisions, not from a detailed list in the Treaty text.

Institutional role within the Alliance

In practice, the Secretary General's central powers can be grouped into four main blocks:

1. Chairing the main political bodies

The Secretary General chairs the North Atlantic Council (NAC), NATO's highest decision-making body, where the major political action lines and decisions on operations, enlargements, partnerships, and strategic posture are adopted by consensus. Additionally, they usually chair other key committees, such as the Defence Planning Committee and the Nuclear Planning Group, when these meet in ministerial format, as well as meetings of Foreign and Defense Ministers when acting as NAC.

This chairmanship does not grant a personal vote nor the capacity to impose decisions, but it does provide a strong ability to guide debates, articulate commitments, and prepare consensus conclusions among allies, which in contexts of high political polarization is especially relevant, also for countries like Spain, which actively participates in these consensus dynamics.

2. Direction of the international civilian structure

The Secretary General is the head of NATO's International Secretariat, that is, of the civilian structure providing political, technical, and administrative support to decision-making bodies. In this area:

Leads the international civilian staff (selection of senior officials, supervision, internal organization).
Prepares and executes the civilian budget approved by the allies.
– Oversees the implementation of political decisions and mandates given by the Council, both at the Brussels headquarters and in allied offices and representations.

This facet as an administrative manager and “chief of staff” of the Alliance is key to ensuring that political decisions taken by governments, including the Spanish one, become programs, work plans, and concrete actions.

3. Political and diplomatic representation

The Secretary General acts as NATO's principal public representative:

– They are the political spokesperson for decisions and positions agreed by the Council.
– Maintain regular contacts with heads of State and Government, ministers, and international organizations (EU, UN, etc.).
– Participate in summits, conferences, and official visits, explaining and defending the allied stance.

Although they do not set NATO's stance by themselves, they have some leeway to interpret and emphasize aspects of the consensus decisions, which makes the position an influential piece of Euro-Atlantic security diplomacy, with direct implications for Spain's and other allies' external projection.

4. Consensus promotion and crisis management

A decisive part of their function is to act as an “honest broker” among allies:

Discreetly mediates when there are significant disagreements (e.g., on operations, enlargements, or defense spending levels).
– Proposes draft compromises, schedules, and political formulas to reach consensus.
– In crisis situations (armed conflicts, hybrid attacks, tensions with third states) coordinates emergency Council meetings, prepares response options, and articulates the Alliance's strategic communication.

This capacity for crisis management and cohesion building is essential for the credibility of the collective defense clause, without altering the basic principle that ultimate authority always rests with the member States.

Limits of their powers

Despite their visibility, the Secretary General has clear limits:

– They do not have operational command over military forces; that role lies with strategic military commanders appointed by the allies.
– They cannot unilaterally decide operations or defense commitments; everything is adopted by consensus in the NAC.
– Their administrative and personnel decisions are framed by budgets and mandates approved by the Council.

In short, their powers are broad in terms of political leadership, coordination, representation, and management, but always as an executor and facilitator of the collective will of the allied States, as derived from the open framework of the Washington Treaty and the political decisions that develop it.

What legal requirements must member countries meet to increase their military contribution within the NATO structure?

Concise answer

For a member country to increase its military contribution within NATO, there is no single “NATO permission,” but rather a set of internal legal requirements (constitutional, budgetary, and parliamentary control) and allied political commitments (such as the 2 % of GDP defense spending target) that must be respected. Each State must approve the increase in spending and personnel according to its own legal system (in Spain's case, complying with the Constitution, the National Defense and Budget Stability laws, and the control of the General Courts). At the same time, any relevant additional deployment, participation in missions, or hosting of NATO capabilities is coordinated with the collective decisions of the North Atlantic Council and with specific agreements on force presence on national territory. Therefore, the increase in contribution is a combination of internal political decisions and fitting within the Alliance's international legal framework, not an automatic authorization.

General NATO framework

NATO is governed by the North Atlantic Treaty, which recognizes the full sovereignty of member States to organize their armed forces. The Treaty does not impose a concrete legal obligation to spend an exact amount on defense, but establishes cooperation, collective defense (Article 5), and a commitment to maintain capabilities. The well-known 2 % of GDP defense spending target is a political commitment adopted at allied summits, not a legally enforceable NATO rule as if it were a court; therefore, the “requirement” is mainly political and reputational among allies.

When a country decides to increase troops, capabilities, or operations made available to NATO, these means are integrated into the allied command structure through decisions of the North Atlantic Council (where each country has veto rights). Legally, the key is that the State remains the owner of its forces and that their use is made according to the allied mandate and the internal legality of the country itself.

Internal legal requirements (with special reference to Spain)

In practice, the real legal requirements to increase military contribution are internal. In Spain, for example, increasing spending or personnel available to NATO requires:

First, compliance with the Spanish Constitution, which establishes the general framework of the Armed Forces and the role of the Government and the General Courts. Any sustained increase in military spending is reflected in the General State Budgets, which must be approved by law in the Congress and Senate. If there are no new Budgets and the previous ones are extended, the margin to increase the contribution requires internal adjustments or extraordinary credits also with the force of law.

Second, respect for the National Defense Law and other organic legislation regulating Spain's participation in international missions. To deploy more troops under NATO flag (for example, in deterrence missions in Eastern Europe or naval operations), the Government must have the authorization or at least the political control of the Courts, depending on the type of mission and established practice. This includes informing about maximum contingents, rules of engagement, and possible duration.

Third, compliance with budgetary stability and financial sustainability laws. A relevant increase in military spending must fit within approved deficit and debt targets and, if exceeded, would require adjustments in other items or regulatory modifications. This point usually generates political debate in Parliament, as it links social and economic policy priorities with allied commitments.

Specific agreements on presence and capabilities

Beyond the budget, increasing contribution may mean hosting new NATO infrastructures, bases, or capabilities on national territory. In Spain's case, this is articulated through specific international agreements (for example, defense agreements or status of forces agreements), governed by Article 94 of the Constitution and the International Treaties Law. If the agreement has relevant political-military character, affects territorial integrity or financial obligations, it must go through the Courts for authorization.

Likewise, any reinforced presence of allied forces is framed within the NATO Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and, where applicable, bilateral protocols establishing issues such as criminal jurisdiction, use of infrastructures, tax regime, or liability for damages. Although these instruments have international scope, their application requires adaptation to internal legislation (for example, in criminal or security matters).

Political dimension and parliamentary control

In all member countries, increasing military contribution to NATO has a predominantly political dimension: debates on whether to reach or exceed 2 % of GDP, on investment priorities (heavy equipment, cyber defense, personnel), and on the types of missions participated in. In parliamentary systems like Spain's, the Government is subject to control through specific plenary sessions, Defense Minister appearances, and votes on resolutions related to security and defense policy.

In summary, from a legal-political perspective, NATO sets the international framework and capability objectives, but concrete compliance depends on each national legal system. The key “legal requirement” is that any decision to increase military contribution has backing in the Constitution, defense legislation, budgetary procedure, and current international treaties, something that in Spain de facto requires consensus or at least sufficient parliamentary majority.

Play

Test your knowledge with FREN!

How much do you know about this topic? Answer the following 3 questions.

What area particularly concerns European allies regarding a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO?

Question 1 of 3

What is one of the operational changes expected within NATO according to the preliminary documents distributed?

Question 2 of 3

What is Spain doing to adapt to the new distribution of responsibilities in NATO?

Question 3 of 3

Hola, soy Fren. ¿Cómo te ayudo?