The pact between PP and Vox for the elections on November 29 introduces a novelty that voters will have to take into account when marking the Senate ballot. The agreement establishes three distinct formulas according to the constituency: in six provinces, Vox proposes an independent candidate who integrates into the PP's candidacy; in another 14, it presents a single candidate so that its voters can combine it with two popular candidates; and in three, the PP renounces to run, so its voters will be able to support the candidates of Vox.
The objective of both formations is to coordinate their candidacies to try to add representation in the Senate and avoid that the separate candidacies of candidates hinder the obtaining of seats. It is an unprecedented electoral experiment, whose effectiveness is yet to be proven: one thing is the design agreed upon by the party leaderships and another, the behavior that voters ultimately have at the polls.
The pact exclusively affects the Senate. It does not imply a joint candidacy for Congress, where PP and Vox maintain their separate lists and the voter votes for a political formation, not for individual candidates.
1. The six provinces in which Vox proposes an independent
In Las Palmas, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Cádiz, Valencia, Castellón, and Balearic Islands, Vox renounces to present its own candidates and proposes six independent candidates who integrate into the PP's lists for the Senate.
In these constituencies, voters who want to support the agreed formula will have to identify the independent candidate proposed by Vox within the popular candidacy and mark their name on the Senate ballot. There will not be a separate candidacy of Vox apart from that of the PP: the agreed formula is the incorporation of those independents into the popular lists.
The difference is important to avoid confusing the two modalities of the pact. In these six provinces, the candidate proposed by Vox runs integrated into the PP's candidacy; in the other 14, Vox does present its own candidate, separate from the three popular candidates.
2. The 14 provinces in which Vox presents a single candidate
The second formula will be applied in Sevilla, Huelva, Asturias, Badajoz, Álava, Navarra, Cáceres, Huesca, Zaragoza, Alicante, Granada, Cuenca, Pontevedra, and Jaén.
In these provinces, Vox will present a single candidate and the PP will run with three. As in the provincial constituencies, up to three names can be marked, the combination that allows coordinating the vote of both parties consists of selecting the candidate from Vox and two of the three candidates from the PP.
This is the practical key of the agreement in those 14 provinces: the Senate ballot allows voting for candidates from different parties, so it is not necessary to choose all the candidates from the same party. Vox voters can support their candidate and complete the available votes with two popular candidates; those who opt for the PP will be able to distribute their three votes among the names of their party.
The pact thus seeks for both candidacies to be able to add support without competing with the same number of candidates in the same constituency. However, it does not guarantee that the combination will produce a certain distribution of seats. The result will depend on the votes obtained by each candidate and the electoral strength of the other candidacies.
3. The three provinces where the PP withdraws
The third formula affects Guipúzcoa, Girona, and Tarragona. In these constituencies, the PP renounces to present candidates for the Senate.
The practical consequence for popular voters who want to contribute to the agreed coordination is that they will have to consider the candidacies of Vox in those provinces, as there will not be a separate list from the PP for the Upper House. In this way, the agreement aims to prevent the vote of that political space from being dispersed among separate candidacies.
Also in this case, the pact establishes a strategy among the party leaderships, but does not determine what each voter will do. Whether PP voters ultimately choose candidates from Vox and whether that transfer of support translates into seats will depend on the electoral behavior in each territory.
Why the Senate is important
The Upper House has relevant competencies in the Spanish institutional system. One of them is the election of four of the twelve magistrates of the Constitutional Court, who must be appointed by a three-fifths majority of the Senate. The composition of the Chamber can therefore influence the negotiations and majorities necessary to renew part of the court.
It is worth specifying, however, that the Senate does not directly elect the president of the Constitutional Court. The Chamber participates in the appointment of four magistrates, while the presidency of the court is elected by the magistrates themselves among their members. The PP-Vox pact may influence the composition of the Senate, but it does not equate to a direct election of the presidency of the Constitutional Court.
An electoral experiment pending the vote
The Senate system allows for the election of individual candidates. In the provincial constituencies, each voter can mark up to three names; in Gran Canaria, Mallorca, Tenerife, Ceuta, and Melilla, up to two; and in the remaining island constituencies, one.
This particularity is what makes the agreement possible: the parties can maintain separate candidacies in much of the territory and, at the same time, coordinate the number of candidates they present or choose not to run in certain provinces.
The unknown is whether voters will follow this logic. PP and Vox have designed a formula to try to strengthen their joint representation in the Senate, but the pact does not oblige voters to distribute their votes in a specific way.
The effectiveness of the operation can only be measured when the results of 29N are known.