Midterm elections this Tuesday, November 3, in the United States will determine the balance of power in Congress, but the first winners could be known long before the counting is finished. As polling places close, major television networks and news agencies will begin to assign seats to Republicans and Democrats, even though authorities have not yet counted all the ballots.
This practice, common on American election nights, responds to the particularities of a decentralized system in which the media project results based on statistical data, while election authorities conduct the count and certify the winners later.
The distinction takes on special importance in these elections, in which President Donald Trump is betting on the continuity of the Republican majority in Congress and the Democrats aim to regain control of the legislative chambers.
Why the United States does not have a single election recount
Unlike other countries, the United States lacks a federal election authority that collects all votes and publishes a definitive national result on election night.
Each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia administers its own election processes, with rules that can vary even between counties and municipalities. The differences affect identification procedures, mail voting deadlines, ballot verification, and counting mechanisms.
Once polling centers close, authorities check and count ballots using electronic scanning systems or manual recounts, depending on the rules of each jurisdiction. The results are transmitted later to the corresponding election offices, which publish them progressively.
The official count can last several days and even weeks, especially when margins between candidates are narrow or there is a substantial volume of absentee ballots pending processing.
That was what happened in the 2020 presidential elections, when the high number of postal votes, driven by the covid-19 pandemic, delayed knowledge of the results in several decisive states.
How do the media know who has won if there are still votes left to count
The Associated Press (AP) agency and networks such as CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox News have specialized teams, known as decision desks, that analyze election data in real time to determine when a winner can be projected.
Their estimates combine provisional results released by authorities with information about the historical behavior of each territory, election polls, and the geographic distribution of the remaining votes.
The fundamental element is not only how many votes each candidate has, but whether the votes still to be counted could change the existing lead.
For example, a candidate may lead the count with 70% of the ballots counted and still not receive a favorable projection if the remaining votes come mostly from territories where their opponent performs better.
It can also happen the opposite: the media may project a victory with a relatively low percentage of the completed count when the available data and characteristics of the electorate make it possible to establish with sufficient confidence that the outcome will not change.
Therefore, a projection is not equivalent to an official certification. Election authorities are responsible for completing the count, addressing incidents, and validating the results in accordance with the law of each state.
A tradition that began in the 19th century
American election projections have a long history. As the EFE agency recalls, Associated Press announced in 1848 Zachary Taylor’s presidential victory using the telegraph, an innovation that made it possible to transmit election information with a speed unknown until then.
With the expansion of television during the 20th century, the major networks developed their own analysis systems and began competing to anticipate the results of the main contests.
However, that speed has also led to controversies.
In the 2020 presidential election, Fox News projected Joe Biden’s victory in Arizona before other outlets. Although the forecast turned out to be correct, the decision prompted criticism from Donald Trump’s circle and reopened the debate about the appropriate moment to award an electoral victory.
What time will the first election results be known
The closing of polling stations will take place in stages due to the country’s different time zones.
The first centers will begin to close at 18:00 local time in areas of Indiana and Kentucky, when in mainland Spain it will be 00:00 on Wednesday, November 4.
During the following hours, voting will be completed in much of the eastern and central states of the country, while the western territories will remain open later.
In those districts where one of the parties has a large lead, the media could announce the winner shortly after the ballot boxes close.
On the contrary, the closest races may remain without a projected winner for hours or days, especially in states such as Georgia, Míchigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Maine or Alaska, where relevant elections are at stake for the composition of the Senate.
When will results be official and what will happen if there is a close tie
The closing of polling stations does not imply that the results are final. After the initial count, authorities must check outstanding votes, verify the records, and complete the certification procedures.
In some jurisdictions, additional recounts may also be triggered when the difference between candidates falls below the thresholds established by state law.
Therefore, although during the Spanish pre-dawn it may be known which party is approaching control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, the final composition of Congress will depend on the result of all districts and the completion of the electoral procedures.
The key to following the U.S. election night is to distinguish between counted votes, projected winners, and certified results. The first come from the count by authorities, the second from media estimates, and the third acquire official status once the legal steps are completed.