Israel goes to the polls this Tuesday, October 27, in an election that could decide the continuity of Benjamin Netanyahu at the head of the Government after one of the most tumultuous periods in the recent history of the country. The elections, the first since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza, come with the prime minister questioned over the management of national security and an opposition that aims to put an end to his government term.
The electoral dispute has as its main protagonist the former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist party Yashar, who has managed to surpass Netanyahu's Likud in a good part of the latest polls. However, the surveys published before the vote depict a much more complex scenario than a competition between two candidates, as none of the major political alliances alone reaches the 61 deputies necessary to control the Knesset.
The result will also determine the course of Israel on issues ranging from the relationship with the Palestinians to the investigation of the security failures of October 7, the mandatory military service of the ultra-Orthodox, and the continuity of judicial reforms. The possibility that neither of the blocks manages to form a Government adds uncertainty to an election that takes place after three years of regional conflicts.
When the elections are held and what is voted on
Israelis are called to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 to elect the 120 deputies of the Knesset, the national Parliament. This is the sixth legislative election since 2019, a succession of calls that reflects the difficulties of the parties to build stable majorities in recent years.
The voting takes place through a system of proportional representation in a single national constituency. Citizens choose party lists, not directly the prime minister, and the seats are distributed among the candidacies that exceed the threshold of 3.25% of valid votes.
The absolute majority is set at 61 deputies, a figure that usually forces negotiations for coalitions between parties with different ideological and religious positions. Therefore, obtaining the largest number of votes or seats does not automatically guarantee access to the head of Government.
Who are the main candidates
Netanyahu, 77 years old, returns to lead Likud after having governed the country longer than any other Israeli prime minister. His campaign has relied on his experience in security matters and on the military operations carried out in recent years, while his opponents question his political responsibility for the failures that preceded the Hamas attack.
His main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli Army and leader of Yashar, a centrist party that has gained prominence in the polls. Eisenkot was a member of the war cabinet after the attacks in October 2023 and later left the Executive due to his disagreements with Netanyahu over the conduct of the conflict.
The space opposing Netanyahu also includes the alliance Together, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett alongside Yair Lapid, as well as Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the secular right of Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yair Golan, leader of The Democrats, which represents the progressive sector of the Jewish opposition.
This diversity constitutes one of the main difficulties for the formation of an alternative Government, as the parties share their rejection of Netanyahu's continuity but maintain differences on territorial, economic, and religious issues.
What the latest polls say
The latest polls published before the elections reflect a tight competition between Yashar and Likud, with an advantage for Eisenkot's party in several of the surveys released in recent days. The gap between the two parties is small and may vary according to the polling institute.
The Channel 12 poll from October 23 attributes 23 seats to Yashar and 21 to Likud, while the Kan 11 poll from the same day grants 22 deputies to Eisenkot and 20 to Netanyahu.
The decisive question, however, is not only which party finishes first. Projections show that the bloc formed by Likud, the far right, and the ultra-Orthodox parties does not reach an absolute majority, while the opposition also does not have the necessary support to invest an alternative candidate.
The final distribution will also depend on the small candidacies that manage to surpass the electoral threshold. A party that remains below 3.25% will lose all possibility of parliamentary representation, which can alter the balance between the blocs even with reduced differences in votes.
The parties that can decide who governs
Netanyahu needs the support of his traditional partners to try to continue at the head of the Executive. Among them are Otzma Yehudit, led by the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism, headed by the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, two far-right leaders who advocate particularly hard positions regarding the Palestinian territories.
These parties are joined by the ultra-Orthodox formations Shas and United Torah Judaism, whose votes have been fundamental for Israeli conservative coalitions. Their participation in a future Executive will be conditioned, among other issues, by negotiations on military service exemptions for religious students.
In the other bloc, the differences between Eisenkot, Bennett, Lapid, Lieberman, and Golan complicate the possibility of presenting a joint alternative. Although they share the goal of replacing the current prime minister, their proposals regarding the relationship between religion and state, security policy, and the Palestinian conflict are not coincident.
The Arab vote and the possibility of a political blockade
The representation of Arab Israeli citizens can acquire decisive importance if neither of the two major blocs reaches 61 seats. The main candidacies in this space are the Joint List and Ra'am, which run with different programs and political strategies.
The eventual collaboration with these formations represents a delicate issue for the Jewish opposition parties, several of whose leaders have rejected forming formal coalitions with Arab forces. However, their deputies could prove necessary to facilitate an investiture through external parliamentary support.
The Israeli political experience shows that these alliances are not completely unprecedented. In 2021, Ra'am participated in the coalition that allowed Naftali Bennett to replace Netanyahu, although that government ended up losing its majority and the country held elections again.
If the negotiations following the vote do not reach an agreement, Israel could prolong the blockade situation and face a new electoral call. As long as an alternative Executive is not established, the outgoing Government would continue to perform its functions.
Gaza and October 7, at the center of the campaign
National security and the consequences of the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, have conditioned the entire electoral campaign. That offensive caused around 1,200 deaths in Israel and the kidnapping of 251 people, according to Israeli figures, and triggered a war in Gaza that has caused enormous humanitarian devastation.
Netanyahu has defended his military action and has presented his experience at the head of the Government as a guarantee to respond to regional threats. The opposition, for its part, has questioned the intelligence and security failures that allowed the attacks and has demanded political accountability.
One of the main points of controversy is the creation of a state independent commission to investigate what happened on October 7, a demand supported by sectors of the opposition and families of the victims.
The future Government will also have to define its strategy regarding Gaza, relations with the Palestinian Authority, and the situation in the West Bank, where the expansion of settlements and violence constitute important sources of tension.
The military service of the ultra-Orthodox, another decisive dispute
The exemption from military service that many ultra-Orthodox men have benefited from for decades has become one of the major issues in domestic politics. The prolonged military effort has increased pressure on the Army and on reservists, while part of society demands a more equitable distribution of military obligations.
The religious parties defend mechanisms that allow the preservation of Torah study and maintain exceptions to recruitment, a position that has generated tensions even within conservative coalitions.
A good part of the opposition proposes modifying the system to expand the incorporation of ultra-Orthodox individuals into the Armed Forces, although there are differences regarding the timelines and scope of the reforms.
The issue may prove decisive during the negotiations to form a Government, because it directly affects the conditions that the religious formations will demand to support any candidate.
What will happen to Netanyahu if he loses
The loss of the parliamentary majority would not automatically mean Netanyahu's departure from the Government. Once the results are known, the president of Israel, Isaac Herzog, must consult the parties represented in the Knesset and assign the formation of an Executive to the leader he considers most likely to gather a majority.
The designated candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate support, with the possibility of requesting an extension of up to 14 days. If he fails, the president may entrust the task to another deputy, before the parliamentary mechanisms provided to attempt an investiture are exhausted.
Netanyahu's political future is also conditioned by his judicial proceedings. The prime minister continues to be prosecuted in Israel for corruption charges, which he denies, and there is an arrest warrant against him from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, accusations he rejects.
The continuity or replacement at the head of the Executive could influence the relationship between political power and judicial institutions, one of the issues that has generated the most controversy in Israel in recent years.
When will the results be known
The polling stations will open this Tuesday at 7:00 AM and close at 10:00 PM, Israeli time, which is equivalent to 6:00 AM and 9:00 PM in mainland Spain. From the closing, the first estimates prepared by the media will be known.
The provisional results of the counting will be published during the night of Tuesday and the early morning of Wednesday, although the final distribution of seats will depend on the complete count and official validation.
The institutional calendar will not end with the announcement of the winner. Parliamentary fragmentation may force negotiations to continue for several weeks before knowing who will lead the next Government.