The announcement from Podemos that it will vote in favor of the two housing decree laws clears one of the uncertainties of the extraordinary plenary session this Friday in Congress, but does not guarantee their validation. With the rejection of PP and Vox, the Executive needs to complete its support and avoid Junts joining the opposing bloc.
The four votes from Podemos would allow reaching 172 supports without the seven deputies from Junts, provided that the PNV and Coalición Canaria vote in favor and the support from the rest of the formations in that bloc is maintained. Against them, PP, Vox, UPN, and Javier Ortega Smith would add up to 171 votes against.
According to what this medium has been able to confirm, Coalición Canaria has still not decided the direction of its deputy Cristina Válido's vote.
Simple majority: more yeses than noes
The validation of a royal decree law requires a simple majority, that is, more votes in favor than against. The Government does not need to reach the 176 deputies that mark the absolute majority and abstentions are not incorporated into either of the two blocs. If the text does not obtain that majority, it is repealed.
This rule allows Junts' abstention to facilitate approval, even though its deputies do not expressly support the measures. But the margin would be minimal and would depend on the behavior of the rest of the groups.
The PNV is key, but so is Coalición Canaria
The sum of PSOE, Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, BNG, and Águeda Micó reaches 166 votes. The five deputies from the PNV would raise the favorable bloc to 171, while the vote from Coalición Canaria would allow reaching 172. The support from the Canarian formation was still not listed as confirmed in the parliamentary information published this Wednesday. elpais.com
Therefore, the yes from the PNV and the abstention from Junts would not be enough on their own if Coalición Canaria also abstained: the result would be a tie at 171, insufficient to validate the decrees.
| Scenario, maintaining the rest of the supports | In favor | Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PNV and Coalición Canaria vote yes; Junts abstains | 172 | 171 | Validation |
| PNV votes yes; Coalición Canaria and Junts abstain | 171 | 171 | No majority to validate |
| PNV and Junts abstain; Coalición Canaria votes yes | 167 | 171 | Repeal |
| PNV and Coalición Canaria vote yes; Junts votes no | 172 | 178 | Repeal |
Two votes and two majorities to close
The support announced by Podemos affects both decrees, but the validation of each will be decided separately. PNV and Junts had reserved their position until knowing the definitive texts, so they could adopt a different voting sense for each norm.
The Government needs, therefore, to close two majorities. The combination of the yes from PNV and Coalición Canaria with the abstention of Junts would allow both votes to be surpassed by a single vote, provided that the pattern is repeated in both decrees and all other supports are maintained.