The documents declassified by the Government about the Ceuta crisis disprove the account that the president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has maintained this Wednesday about the information that the State had before July 30.
The head of the Executive assured this morning in an interview granted to Mañaneros 360 on TVE that "a massive arrival of migrants was not anticipated". The papers published hours later contain, however, an assessment issued by military intelligence that considered "very likely" that on July 30 there would be an attempt at a "massive entry of irregular migration".
This is not the only discrepancy. Sánchez has framed the signals prior to the day of the massive entry in a scenario of migratory pressure that did not allow anticipating what ultimately occurred. But the documentation reveals a succession of increasingly concrete alerts: the risk of combined entries by sea and fence was raised to "extreme", calls to act precisely on July 30 were detected, and the CNI warned the day before Delegation of the Government and Civil Guard of an attempt to enter by swimming and jumping the fence.
Sánchez: "A massive arrival was not anticipated"
Sánchez insisted this Wednesday on TVE that the intelligence services did not anticipate an entry of the characteristics recorded in Ceuta. "A massive arrival of migrants was not anticipated", he stated when asked about the information that the Government had before July 30.
The president then introduced a clarification. "A massive arrival of so many migrants was not anticipated at all," he pointed out, insisting that the previous reports were not talking about 70,000 people.
"Very likely" a "massive entry"
Far from Sánchez's statements, military intelligence assessed "as very likely that on July 30, 2026, there would be an attempt at a massive entry of irregular migration, taking advantage of the Throne Day holiday in Morocco."
The distance from the statement made this Wednesday by Sánchez is evident. The president maintains that "a massive arrival was not anticipated" and one of the documents declassified by his Executive contains precisely an assessment of the probability that a "massive entry" would occur.
Risk "extreme" since the day before
It was not just about an isolated assessment. On July 29, the National Immigration and Borders Center (CENIF) had analyzed different scenarios and raised the risk associated with the combination of swimming entries and a jump over the fence to "extreme".
The police services had also located messages indicating the day and the method: "Attack will be beach fence and forest, Thursday is throne day" or "On July 30 we are going to attack (avalanche) near Ceuta". Another message urged that "each group get in touch with other groups".
CENIF itself used the expression "early warning".
The CNI set a date and entry routes
The documentation from the CNI adds another element that contrasts with the idea of a threat that is impossible to anticipate. At 1:52 PM on July 29, the CNI communicated to the Government Delegation in Ceuta: "On social media there is a call for an assault by fence and sea tomorrow at 8 PM."
And it explained the reason why the conveners had chosen the date: "Taking advantage of throne day and that their security forces will be tied up."
The Center added that there were two different groups totaling 180,000 followers and explained that it was providing the information "to give you an idea of the extent of the dissemination". The figure refers to the total number of followers of the detected groups, not to the expected participants in the entry. Just one minute later, the CNI also alerted the Civil Guard: "We have information of an attempt to swim in and jump over the fence for tomorrow, throne day."
Therefore, the prior warning contained date, two possible entry routes, and the circumstance that the conveners intended to take advantage of.
Marlaska and Albares deny "any report" that anticipated what happened
The contrast does not only affect Sánchez's statements. The Minister of the Interior had assured on August 25 that "there was no report that hinted that on July 30 what ultimately happened was going to occur".
Marlaska maintained this Wednesday that "there was no report on this or anything similar to what happened on July 30", although he acknowledged that there were documents warning of an increase in migratory pressure.
The position expressed this Wednesday by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, follows a similar line. "I have no record that there was any report that could foresee the magnitude of what happened on July 30", he assured from Brussels when asked about the CNI warning.
How far did the CNI alert go then?
The examined documents raise several questions. Did the Government hide the information or did it really not receive the alerts? Once it has been established that there were prior warnings, the issue becomes what happened to them within the Administration.
On July 29, the CNI used at least two parallel channels. It directly warned the Government Delegation in Ceuta and also communicated the information to the Civil Guard. There were then phone conversations with both recipients.
In fact, the Minister of Defense herself, Margarita Robles, already warned in total alignment with the conversations revealed today on August 25, during her appearance in Congress to account for the crisis, that the members of the CNI in Ceuta "transfer and report to the Government Delegation about that call to be able to swim in taking advantage of that party."
On one hand, there is the operational chain, intended to prepare the response on the ground. At this point, the Government Delegation had to coordinate with the territorial heads of the National Police and Civil Guard, assess the credibility and scope of the threat, and adopt or promote the necessary preventive measures.
The Civil Guard had, at the same time, its own hierarchical chain. The warning received directly from the CNI could be evaluated in Ceuta and elevated through its territorial and operational structure to the central bodies of the General Directorate and, depending on its assessment, to the Secretary of State for Security. Therefore, the warning did not necessarily have to go through the Delegation first to reach Madrid.
The Secretary of State for Security constitutes the main central level where both channels can converge. The general directorates of the Police and Civil Guard and the bodies responsible for their coordination depend on its scope. If the call detected by the CNI was considered a credible and sufficiently serious threat, that level could integrate what was known by the Delegation, Police, and Civil Guard, assess the need for reinforcements, and elevate decisions that exceeded ordinary management.
The next political level was the Minister of the Interior. Fernando Grande-Marlaska holds the political responsibility of the department from which the State Security Forces and Corps depend.
And from the Interior, the information could reach the Presidency of the Government if the threat required political decisions, coordination between departments, or actions related to Morocco. It was not the only possibility either. The CNI has among its functions to provide the president and the Government with the necessary intelligence to prevent risks or threats against territorial integrity, national interests, and the stability of the State. The National Security Department also constitutes another area of support for the Presidency in situations with implications for National Security.
The known documents, however, do not allow completing that journey.