General elections: PP loses nine seats, Vox reaches 70 and PSOE recovers three in the Hamalgama poll

The PP would continue winning the general elections of November 29, although with a smaller margin over the PSOE and with a stronger Vox than in the poll of October 11. The new Hamalgama Métrica poll for Vozpópuli gives 135 deputies to the populars, 106 to the socialists and 70 to Santiago Abascal's party. In the previous installment they were 144, 103 and 68, respectively.

The sum of PP and Vox reaches 51.9% of the vote and exceeds 12.7 million ballots in the published estimate. But the comparison with the previous poll from the same firm shows a setback for the bloc: it goes from 53% to 51.9% and from 212 to 205 deputies. Vox gains two representatives, insufficient to offset the nine that the PP loses.

Sánchez cuts twelve seats of distance from Feijóo

The PP falls from 33.4% to 32%, while the PSOE rises from 25.3% to 26.4%. The popular advantage is reduced from 8.1 to 5.6 points. In Congress, the distance between the two would go from 41 to 29 deputies. That cut of twelve seats is explained by two movements: nine fewer for Feijóo and three more for Sánchez.

To the left of the PSOE, Frente Amplio maintains the 5.4% that the previous installment attributed to Sumar, but goes from five to seven representatives. Podemos drops from two to one. Adelante Andalucía would obtain two. The difference with the 31 deputies of Sumar in 2023 cannot be attributed simply to a single formation: the composition of the candidacies has changed.

Vox more than doubles its representation from 23J

The comparison with the ballot boxes yields a different result from the comparison between polls. Compared with July 2023, the PP would lose two deputies, from 137 to 135, and the PSOE would lose fifteen, from 121 to 106. Vox would go from 33 to 70: 37 more. This explains why the right falls back compared with the previous poll and, at the same time, obtains 35 more deputies than in 23J. The 205 correspond only to PP and Vox, without adding UPN.

Why this poll does not measure the Urda effect on its own

Vozpópuli published the poll on November 2, but Hamalgama carried out its 1,000 telephone interviews between October 22 and 28. The accident occurred on the last day of the fieldwork. It has not been disclosed how many calls were completed after the accident. The recovery of the PSOE and the fall of the PP are, therefore, differences with respect to the previous study, not reactions that can be attributed to Urda.

See here the technical sheet and the poll on VozPopuli