General elections survey: PP and Vox lose four seats, but maintain 198 compared to the 107 of PSOE, according to GAD3

The right slightly retreats, but maintains a wide advantage. The GAD3 survey for ABC published this October 12 places the PP and Vox at 198 deputies, four less than in September and still 22 above the 176 needed for an absolute majority. The PSOE improves to 107 seats, while Sumar reaches ten and Podemos obtains two.

The PP would still be the first force with 133 representatives. The loss of seats for the right is concentrated in Vox, which goes from 69 to 65. The movement reduces its potential majority, but does not change the bloc that could gather enough support for an investiture if both parties reached an agreement.

What changes compared to the previous GAD3

The September barometer assigned 133 deputies to the PP, 105 to the PSOE, 69 to Vox, and nine to Sumar. The new delivery keeps the popular party, improves the socialists by two seats, and adds one to Sumar.

In percentage terms, the changes described by ABC place the PP at 31.4%, the PSOE at 26.4%, Vox at 18.2%, and Sumar at 7.4%. Both the popular party and the socialists rise by three tenths each: the distance between them remains at five points. Vox loses one point and Sumar gains four tenths.

The sum of PP and Vox goes from 50.3% to 49.6%. It is an important difference when talking about a majority of votes: the survey attributes them an absolute majority of seats, although their combined percentage remains slightly below 50%.

The PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos gather 119 deputies, compared to the 116 from the previous study. The recovery of three representatives improves their position, but keeps a considerable distance from the 198 of PP and Vox.

Against the 23J: Vox's growth changes the majority

The comparison with the elections of July 2023 shows a much greater change. The PP would lose four seats compared to the 137 it obtained then. Vox, on the other hand, would go from 33 to 65: it would gain 32 and would be one short of doubling its representation.

The combined result would be 198 deputies compared to the 170 from the 23J. The sum of the right would grow by 28 representatives despite the setback of the PP. Vox's advance explains that difference and would give it more weight in a possible negotiation between both formations.

The PSOE would be 14 deputies below its 121 from the last general elections. Recovering two since September represents an improvement, but still leaves it far from the result with which Sánchez managed to renew the investiture.

Sumar improves, but its space is still far from 2023

Sumar gains one deputy compared to September and reaches ten. Podemos would obtain two separately. Together they would total twelve, compared to the 31 achieved by the joint candidacy of 2023, in which both formations were integrated.

That is the appropriate comparison to measure the setback of the space: 19 deputies less, without confusing the unitary candidacy of 23J with the separate ballots that the survey now collects.

The analyzed estimate does not allow calculating what would happen if both forces ran together. Adding their percentages is not enough to know the electoral result of an alliance or its provincial distribution of seats.

A survey from the first days of the pre-campaign

The interviews were conducted between October 6 and 8, after the announcement of the electoral advance. The study offers a first snapshot of that scenario, not proof that the protests over housing have caused -or have not caused- the recorded movements.

The reading is more concrete: PP and Vox give up four seats compared to the previous GAD3; PSOE and Sumar regain ground; and the parliamentary majority projected by the survey remains on the side of the right.

Check the technical sheet original information from ABC.