The PP improves, the PSOE retreats, and Vox loses representation despite increasing its vote share. The GAD3 barometer published for ABC on 9 November maintains a broad parliamentary majority for the right ahead of the general elections on 29N, with moves between parties that barely modify their combined total.
The fieldwork was carried out between 3 and 5 November, after the Urda accident and coinciding with the resignation of Óscar Puente. The comparison with October describes how the electoral estimate changes during that period, but it does not allow all of the variation to be attributed to the tragedy or the minister’s departure.
What GAD3 shows: the PP and its allies would reach 199 seats
The poll places the PP at 31.9% and 136 seats, including the joint candidacy with UPN in Navarre. The PSOE would obtain 25.9% and 103 representatives, while Vox would reach 18.6% and 63 seats. The gap between the conservatives and the socialists would be six points and 33 seats. (en.wikipedia.org)
The combined tally of PP, UPN and Vox would reach 199 seats, 23 more than the 176 required for an absolute majority. The PSOE, the Frente Amplio and Podemos would total 116, without incorporating the other regional forces.
Regional alliances back the Frente Amplio and ERC reaches twelve seats
The Valencian Community concentrates five of the twelve seats attributed to the Frente Amplio and its coalitions. One would correspond to María Teresa Pérez, Podemos’s candidate for Alicante within Compromís-Front Valencià. The Balearic Islands would provide another representative through Ara-Més-Front Ampli.
That Podemos MP integrated into a coalition is different from the one that the poll grants to its lists on its own: Irene Montero would obtain representation for Madrid. Therefore, the count by candidacies and the affiliation of its members are not exactly the same.
The projection does not grant seats to Unión del Pueblo Canario or to CHA-Frente Amplio Aragón. Among the other territorial forces, ERC stands out, which would reach twelve deputies, while EH Bildu would obtain eight and Adelante Andalucía, three.
Comparison with October: the PP gains three seats and the PSOE loses four
With respect to the barometer published on October 12, the PP moves from 133 to 136 seats. The PSOE drops from 107 to 103, while Vox retreats from 65 to 63.
The Frente Amplio improves from ten to twelve representatives. ERC also gains two, to twelve, and Adelante Andalucía goes from one to three. On the other hand, the PNV loses two and remains at four. Junts, EH Bildu, BNG, and Coalición Canaria maintain their representation.
In votes, the right-wing gains five tenths, from 31.4% to 31.9%, and the socialists lose another five tenths, from 26.4% to 25.9%. Thus, the PP’s advantage increases from five to six points.
Vox rises from 18.2% to 18.6%, although it loses two seats. The national percentage and seats can move in different directions due to the provincial allocation of votes. Frente Amplio goes from 7.4% to 7.5%. (pollingforecast.com, en.wikipedia.org)
The overall balance of the right is much smaller than individual changes: it goes from 198 to 199 seats.
Comparison with the 23J: the PSOE would lose 18 seats and Vox would gain 30
The most pronounced difference versus the 2023 general elections corresponds to Vox, which would move from 33 to 63 representatives. The PSOE would drop from 121 to 103.
To compare with the PP, the change of candidacy in Navarra has to be incorporated. In 2023, the PP and UPN obtained 137 and one deputy separately: 138 together. The current estimate, which includes the Navarre coalition within the 136 attributed to the PP, means two fewer on that aggregated baseline.
The Frente Amplio and the coalitions that GAD3 groups with it would obtain twelve seats, compared with Sumar’s 31 in 2023. The comparison requires taking into account the reorganization of that space: Podemos then ran within Sumar and now also appears with its own candidacies.
Taken together, the PP, UPN and Vox would go from the 171 deputies they obtained in the 23J to the 199 in this estimate. The gain of 28 representatives from the bloc would come from Vox’s growth, which would offset the slight aggregate setback by the PP and UPN.
The precedent of the 23J: GAD3 overestimated the PP and underestimated the PSOE
GAD3’s latest pre-election estimate collected for July 17, 2023 placed the PP at 36.9%, the PSOE at 28.6% and Vox at 11.7%. Compared with the final result, rounded to one decimal place, it overestimated the conservatives by 3.8 points and underestimated the socialists by 3.1 and Vox by 0.7: it drew a PP-PSOE advantage of 8.3 points when it ended up being approximately 1.4. If that entire error were carried over to current percentages, as a purely hypothetical exercise, the results would be 28.1% for the PP, 29% for the PSOE and 19.3% for Vox. This is not a prediction nor a validated correction: an error in an election does not demonstrate a permanent bias and the polling firm may have revised its methods since then.