DEMÓCRATA posed it yesterday: the gap between PP and PSOE could be narrower than some polls suggested if part of the errors from 23J persisted. The new 40dB poll now places both parties two points apart, without applying any additional correction. The central estimate keeps the PP in first place, but depicts a tighter competition for electoral leadership.
That said, the measurement comes with controversy in two directions: at least four other polls from well-known prestigious firms today move in the opposite direction and, on the other, among all the polling firms overall, it was 40dB that got the 23J result right the most.
The survey was conducted between 2 and 4 November through 2,000 online interviews. The fieldwork took place after the Urda accident and, in its final stretch, coincided with the resignation of Óscar Puente.
What the poll shows: 129 seats for the PP, 119 for the PSOE, and 61 for Vox
The PP would retain the top position with 129 seats and a range of between 124 and 137. The PSOE would reach 119, with an interval of between 115 and 123. Ten representatives would separate their central estimates.
Vox would obtain 61 seats, within a range of 58 to 64. The central sum of the PP and Vox would reach 190 seats and would rise to 192 when incorporating the two from UPN-PP Navarra, which the chart counts separately. That is 16 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
The ranges correspond to each party or grouping: their endpoints should not be added up as if they represented the same electoral scenario.
So, the convergence between PP and PSOE coexists with a clear majority of the right-wing bloc in the central projection. Competing for first place and securing the necessary support for an investiture are two different issues.
The Broad Front obtains five seats and its territorial alliances add another five
The chart groups together ten Members of Parliament under a single category: five from Frente Amplio, three from Compromís-Front Valencià, one from Ara Més and one from UPC. It is advisable to distinguish that total from the five that correspond to the Frente Amplio ticket separately.
We may not be able to secure representation in the central estimate, although the published range includes up to one Member of Parliament.
Among the remaining candidacies, ERC would obtain ten Members of Parliament and EH Bildu, seven. Junts and PNV would each get three, the same representation that Adelante Andalucía would reach.
Difference from the previous poll: the PSOE cuts 1.8 points from the PP
The main movement with respect to the previous measurement is the PSOE’s advance, moving from 28.1% to 29.9%. The PP remains at 31.9%, so its lead is reduced from 3.8 to two points.
Vox loses nine tenths, from 18.9% to 18%. Frente Amplio moves from 5.3% to 5% and Podemos slips back from 2.3% to 1.2%.
The socialist rapprochement occurs with the PP stable in vote percentage. At the same time, the combined total of popular and Vox falls from 50.8% to 49.9%, without incorporating the Navarre candidacy.
Movements do not, on their own, demonstrate a direct transfer between two parties. To explain their origin, it is necessary to look at the transfer and mobilization data collected by the study.
Sánchez leads preferences for president and the PSOE has room for mobilization
Pedro Sánchez is the preferred candidate to head the Government, with 30% of those interviewed. Feijóo reaches 20%, just two tenths above Abascal, while Ada Colau stands at 4.4%.
According to the poll, around 15% of those who voted for the PP in 2023 would now lean toward Vox. The PSOE would lose to the conservatives to the tune of 6.5% of its former voters, but would capture approximately one in four voters from Sumar.
Willingness to participate introduces another difference. 68% of the socialist electorate declares itself decided to vote, almost seven points less than the PP’s electorate. This is potential room for mobilization for the PSOE, although it does not guarantee that those supports will end up reaching the ballot boxes.
Difference with 23J: the PSOE would lose two seats, the PP eight, and Vox would gain 28
The socialist improvement compared with the previous poll does not mean fully recovering its 2023 result. The PSOE remains 1.8 points below the 31.7% of the 23J and would go from 121 to 119 deputies.
The PP would drop from 33.1% to 31.9% and from 137 to 129 seats. Vox, despite falling back from the previous measurement, would still see strong growth compared with the last general election: from 12.4% to 18% and from 33 to 61 seats.
Historical percentages rounded to one decimal place. The PP appears separately from UPN in 2023 and from UPN-PP Navarra in the poll.
ERC would go from seven to ten seats; EH Bildu, from six to seven, and the BNG, from one to two. In the opposite direction, Junts would drop from seven to three and the PNV, from five to three.
The chart contrasts the ten deputies of Frente Amplio and its regional coalitions with the 31 of Sumar in 2023. This difference of 21 seats should be read taking into account the reorganization of the candidate lists, Podemos’ exit, and changes in territorial alliances.
If the error from 23J were repeated, the PSOE would reach 32.9% and would surpass the PP
If we apply to the current data from 40dB a compensation equivalent to the error that its last published survey recorded before 23J, the PSOE would move from 29.9% to 32.9%, the PP from 31.9% to 32.1%, and Vox from 18% to 16.9%. The socialists would end up eight tenths ahead of the conservatives. It is a hypothetical exercise, not an estimate by 40dB or a prediction: it assumes that all the errors from 2023 were repeated in full, something that cannot be taken for granted and that the polling firm could have corrected when reviewing its methodology