In the general elections of July 2023, Vox got approximately one in every eight votes and 33 deputies. Four weeks before 29N, the five polls published on November 1 and 2 place it close to one in every five votes. Even the lowest estimate, SocioMétrica’s 19.1%, is less than a point away from 20%. The two highest, Hamalgama Métrica and Target Point, stop at a tenth: 19.9%.
The coincidence is especially narrow in votes: barely eight tenths separate the five institutes. In seats there is more room. SocioMétrica gives 64 to Santiago Abascal; Hamalgama, 70; and Target Point opens a range that reaches 72. Demócrata’s average stands at 19.5% and 67.2 deputies. To double the result of 23J, Vox would need 66.
| Pollster | Previous vote → current | Change | Previous seats → current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamalgama · Vozpópuli | 19.6% → 19.9% | +0.3 points | 68 → 70 |
| Target Point · El Debate | 18.7% → 19.9% | +1.2 points | 64–66 → 68–72 |
| NC Report · La Razón | 19.0% → 19.3% | +0.3 points | 64–66 → 66–68 |
| Sigma Dos · El Mundo | 19.9% → 19.3% | −0.6 points | 68 → 65¹ |
| SocioMétrica · El Español | 18.6% → 19.1% | +0.5 points | 63 → 64 |
| Average of the five | 19.2% → 19.5% | +0.3 points | 65.8 → 67.2 |
From 33 to 67 deputies: Vox’s big leap had already happened before Urda
The comparison with the ballot boxes and the comparison with the previous polls tell two different stories. Against 23J, Vox gains about seven points of vote and 34 deputies on average. Against the previous releases from those same five houses, it goes from 19.2% to 19.5% and from 65.8 to 67.2 seats.
In other words, of the 34 deputies that separate Vox today from its 2023 result, almost 33 were already appearing in the previous estimates. What is changing now is that the average crosses the 66 threshold. The recent advance exists, but the doubling of its parliamentary strength had been within Abascal’s reach for weeks.
Hamalgama was already giving it 68 deputies on October 11 and now attributes 70 to it. Target Point goes from a range of 64–66, in its October scenario with the left-wing lists separated, to another of 68–72. It is the house that records the biggest advance in vote share: from 18.7% to 19.9%. Three weeks have passed between its two publications.
The two polls entirely after the accident disagree on the rise
The best proof that one cannot speak of a uniform "Urda effect" lies in the dates. Target Point began its interviews at 6:00 p.m. on October 28, after the accident had already occurred. Sigma Dos interviewed on the 29th and 30th. Both polls exclusively collect responses after the tragedy and both place Vox close to 20%. However, they record opposite movements.
While Vox advances in Target Point, in Sigma Dos it falls from 19.9% to 19.3%. It also drops from 68 to 65 deputies in the scenario that El Mundo considers most likely, within a range of 63–69. Even in that downward poll, Abascal would obtain 32 seats more than in 2023.
The other studies do not allow the post-accident period to be isolated. NC Report interviewed from October 26 to 29; Hamalgama finished its fieldwork on the 28th itself; and SocioMétrica uses a tracking study that accumulates responses since September. The datum that withstands those methodological differences is the level of support: none of the five houses now places Vox below 19%.
Why it matters for Feijóo: Vox would provide one of every three right-wing seats
In 2023, Vox contributed 33 of the 170 deputies it won with the PP: approximately one in five. In the current average it would contribute 67 of the 204 attributed to the right, counting UPN when the institute includes it in the bloc. Its weight thus comes close to one in three.
For Feijóo, the difference is political as well as arithmetic. The five polls keep the PP in first place, but none brings it close to 176 deputies on its own. And the party on which that majority would depend would have, according to these estimates, roughly twice the representation it had in the Congress elected on 23J.
Two studies offer a clue about the origin of that growth. Hamalgama estimates that 13.5% of those who voted for PP in 2023 would now choose Vox; Target Point raises that transfer to 17.5%. In addition, both attribute to Abascal high loyalty among his own voters: 92.3% in Hamalgama and 88.1% in Target Point. These are comparisons with the 2023 vote: they do not mean that those voters have changed parties after the accident.
Check the general average of Demócrata polls and the evolution of Vox since 23J