Aena is playing for 2.6 billion euros until 2031 in the coming weeks. The Council of Ministers must approve the DORA III (Airport Regulation Document) before September 30, the 'mother' document for the management of Spanish airport space over the next five years.
Why is it important?
In that document, the Executive must determine, among other issues, the regulated investments that the company will be able to make. Aena's proposal is to undertake the largest investment cycle in recent decades: 12.888 billion euros of total investment between 2027 and 2031, of which 9.991 billion correspond to regulated investment.
What is the problem?
Aena and the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC) differ on the airport rate to finance this volume of investments.
What does Aena propose?
Starting from a rate or IMAP (Maximum Annual Income per passenger) of 10.52 euros per passenger in 2026, it proposes an upward path of approximately 43 cents additional per passenger per year, until reaching 12.69 euros in 2031.
What does the CNMC propose?
In contrast to a rate increase of 3.82%, the market supervisor proposes a decrease of 0.59% during this period, down to an IMAP of 10.20 euros per passenger.
Why is there this difference?
Both sides justify their calculations based on a series of parameters on which they do not agree:
Projected passengers. Aena works with a traffic growth of approximately 1.3% annually (346.7 million passengers in 2031), compared to the 2.2% of the CNMC, which forecasts 366.7 million. Having more passengers, as the CNMC predicts, means spreading costs over a larger base.
Operating costs. The CNMC proposes cutting operating expenses planned for the period by 741.5 million, which Aena intends to raise from 5.10 euros in 2025 to 6.04 euros in 2027 and to 6.67 euros in 2031.
Cost of capital. Aena proposes a return on regulated investment of 9% compared to the 7.4% proposed by the CNMC. The difference is almost 1.6 points, and during the regulatory period, almost 10 billion of regulated investment is planned.
What does this difference imply?
The calculations vary depending on the number of passengers estimated. Using Aena's calculations, the IMAP path claimed by the company would imply almost 2.5 billion euros in revenue.
| Year | Passengers forecasted by Aena | Aena IMAP | CNMC IMAP | Difference per passenger | Estimated revenue difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 329.3 million | €10.92 | €10.45 | €0.47 | €154.8 million |
| 2028 | 333.6 million | €11.34 | €10.39 | €0.95 | €316.9 million |
| 2029 | 337.9 million | €11.77 | €10.32 | €1.45 | €490.0 million |
| 2030 | 342.2 million | €12.22 | €10.26 | €1.96 | €670.7 million |
| 2031 | 346.7 million | €12.69 | €10.20 | €2.49 | €863.3 million |
| Total 2027-2031 | 1,689.7 million | — | — | — | €2,495.6 million |
Source: preparation by Demócrata based on the DORA III proposal from Aena and the CNMC report. The estimated revenue difference is obtained by applying, on Aena's passenger forecast, the difference between the IMAP proposed by the company and that recommended by the CNMC. The calculation reflects a comparison of maximum regulatory revenues and does not necessarily equate to actual revenues, EBITDA, or profit of Aena.
A gap that would be even greater if taking as a reference the passenger forecast of the CNMC, which would exceed €2,611 million.
| Year | Passengers forecasted by the CNMC | Aena IMAP | CNMC IMAP | Difference per passenger | Estimated revenue difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 335.6 million | €10.92 | €10.45 | €0.47 | €157.7 million |
| 2028 | 343.9 million | €11.34 | €10.39 | €0.95 | €326.7 million |
| 2029 | 351.7 million | €11.77 | €10.32 | €1.45 | €510.0 million |
| 2030 | 359.2 million | €12.22 | €10.26 | €1.96 | €704.0 million |
| 2031 | 366.7 million | €12.69 | €10.20 | €2.49 | €913.1 million |
| Total 2027-2031 | 1,757.1 million | — | — | — | €2,611.5 million |
Source: preparation by Demócrata based on the DORA III proposal from Aena and the CNMC report. The estimated revenue difference is obtained by applying, on the CNMC's passenger forecast, the difference between the IMAP proposed by Aena and that recommended by the regulator. The calculation compares theoretical maximum regulatory revenues and does not necessarily equate to actual revenues, EBITDA, or profit of Aena.
Who has the final word?
The General Directorate of Civil Aviation is responsible for preparing the DORA and submitting it for subsequent approval by the Council of Ministers, following a report from the Government Delegated Commission for Economic Affairs.
The final document will determine the traffic forecasts, investments, operating and capital costs, and the parameters necessary to calculate the maximum annual revenue per passenger for the next five years.
The decision will come after months of confrontation between Aena and the airlines. In March, the airport manager defended that its proposal represented an average increase of 43 cents per passenger each year and recalled that its rates had been reduced by 7% in nominal terms since 2015.