Pablo Hernández de Cos, former governor of the Bank of Spain and current general director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), is emerging as the candidate with the most options to succeed Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB), according to a Bloomberg survey among economists.
Thus, the Spaniard appears as the preferred option for 12 of the consulted experts, compared to the nine who lean towards the Dutch Klaas Knot, who chaired the central bank of the Netherlands from 2011 to 2025.
Both, former members of the Governing Council of the ECB, have consolidated as the names with the most strength to assume the presidency after Lagarde's eventual departure and, in recent weeks, have received public support from their respective Executives.
In the case of Hernández de Cos, the president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, expressed his support in September by emphasizing that he was an "exceptional" president of the Bank of Spain and highlighting that he has the necessary leadership, capability, and knowledge, which he considered would be very beneficial, not only for Spain but also for Europe, to have someone like him at the head of the ECB.
For his part, at the end of last month, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Rob Jetten, conveyed his support for the former governor of the Dutch central bank to take the presidency of the ECB, valuing Knot's pragmatism and ability to work with everyone, as well as the "great success" of his time as central banker in one of the "most difficult" moments.
Although Lagarde's mandate at the head of the ECB officially ends on October 31, 2027, only a minority of those surveyed believe that the Frenchwoman will complete the full term. Two-thirds anticipate that she will leave the position in April 2027, and some even contemplate that she may advance her departure to January.
Speculation about an early departure of the ECB president and the debate over who will replace her have intensified after Lagarde herself admitted that she could leave the position "a few months" earlier than expected and that rumors have circulated about her possible exit in early 2027, likely to become the next president of the World Economic Forum.
A possible resignation of Lagarde would broaden the scope of the restructuring of the ECB's Executive Board, following the recent announcement by the German Isabel Schnabel that she will leave the organization early to join the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2027, while the eight-year term of the chief economist, Philip Lane, concludes in May 2027.
In this context, EU leaders aspire to reach a comprehensive agreement that covers the three positions, although, if Knot is ultimately chosen, a fourth position could be affected, given that his compatriot Frank Elderson is currently part of the ECB's board.
"If necessary, we will find a very quick solution in the Council," said this week on Bloomberg Television the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, referring to the replacement of Schnabel and "possibly of the president."