IBEX 35 today, Monday, August 17: ArcelorMittal and ACS challenge the falls of the index

Regulatory changes in energy linked to the recent tensions in the Middle East are mainly articulated through the Comprehensive Response Plan to the Middle East Crisis and several continuity regulations from previous “anti-crisis” packages (Ukraine + Middle East). As of today (August 2026), part is already in force via decree-law and another part is under parliamentary processing as a bill, in addition to sectoral regulatory developments already approved or in public consultation.

1. Core: Comprehensive Response Plan to the Middle East Crisis

The center of the regulatory response is the Royal Decree-Law 7/2026, of March 20, which approves the Comprehensive Response Plan to the Middle East Crisis, complemented by Royal Decree-Law 18/2026, of June 29.

• RDL 7/2026 – Comprehensive Plan According to the official summary from Moncloa, the decree includes:
  • Temporary reduction of VAT on electricity, gas, and fuels to 10%, discounts on hydrocarbons and the Special Tax on Electricity, and suspension of the electricity production tax (IVPEE).
  • Strengthening of the electric and thermal social bonus, freezing the maximum price of butane, and protection against supply cuts for vulnerable households.
  • Aid for professional diesel and fertilizers, and measures to accelerate renewables and electrification.
  In Congress, the RDL was ratified and is being processed as a bill. The bill file (121/000091) currently has the amendment period open until September 2, 2026, so the phase is amendments in Congress, without committee or report yet.
• RDL 18/2026 – second package of the Comprehensive Plan The Plenary of Congress has ratified Royal Decree-Law 18/2026, of June 29, and agreed on its processing as a bill by urgency procedure (official note from Congress: ratification of RDL 18/2026). Its main points are:
  • New tranche of tax cuts on fuels and IVPEE with reactivation clauses if prices rise more than 15% (also confirmed by the Treasury in this note).
  • Energy measures to accelerate renewables, distribution networks, storage and strengthen the supervisory powers of the CNMC.
  • Extension and adjustment of aid to transport, agriculture, and fishing linked to fuel costs.
  Current phase: ratified and under processing as a bill by urgency procedure; pending amendment phase and report in committee.

2. Previous anti-crisis packages still under processing

Besides the specific Middle East Plan, several previous decree-laws on Ukraine and the Middle East continue to condition the energy framework:

• RDL 4/2024, extending measures to address the consequences of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East with significant fiscal and energy components. The decree was ratified and is processed as bill 121/000032, with the amendment period on the articles also extended until September 2, 2026. That is, it remains in an early processing phase in Congress.
• RDL 8/2023, of December 27, which introduced a first package of energy measures linked to Ukraine and the Middle East. The RDL is ratified and its derived bill (121/000003) has closed the amendment period and has referral to Plenary decided by Congress, placing it in an advanced phase: pending committee report and final vote in Plenary before sending to the Senate.

3. Sectoral regulatory development already in force

In parallel to the decree-laws and their processing as laws, the Government has activated a series of regulatory developments with direct impact on the energy sector:

• Royal Decree 640/2026, of July 29, on investment plans for electricity transmission and distribution networks (BOE 31/07/2026). Its processing went through public consultation and hearing (2025) and is already published in the BOE, so the regulatory change on network planning is in application phase.
• Royal Decree 611/2026, of July 22, on promotion of transport decarbonization and renewable fuels, also already published in the BOE. It regulates obligations and standards for biofuels and other renewable fuels; its regulatory processing is concluded.
• Order APA/568/2026 and other orders and consultations linked to the energy articles of RDL 7/2026 (for example, aid to the agricultural and fishing sectors, distribution of the cost of the electric social bonus, or the future “social and territorial excellence” standard for renewable projects). Here the map is mixed:
  • Some orders, like the mentioned APA/568/2026, are already published in the BOE (validity phase).
  • Other pieces —such as the prior consultation and public hearing on the excellence standard for renewables under article 20 of RDL 7/2026— are in public participation phase and ministerial order design, still without a final approved text.

4. Synthetic balance of phases

• Already in force: most of the tax cuts and the “energy shield” have been applied since their publication in the BOE via RDL 7/2026 and 18/2026, along with sectoral royal decrees (networks, transport decarbonization) and several ministerial orders.
• Under legislative processing:
  • Bills derived from RDL 7/2026 and 18/2026 (Comprehensive Plan) and RDL 4/2024, in amendment phase in Congress.
  • Bill derived from RDL 8/2023, in an advanced phase after closing amendments and referral to Plenary.
• In regulatory preparation: consultations and public hearings for new orders on excellence standards in renewables, social bonus distribution, and other developments of the Comprehensive Plan.

Overall, the Spanish regulatory response to the tensions in the Middle East combines already operational measures (fiscal and consumer protection) with a significant block of regulations under parliamentary processing that will allow consolidating or modulating these changes in the medium term.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) is the public body responsible for producing most of the official statistics at the state level in Spain. Its competencies range from designing and executing key statistical operations (such as the CPI or the EPA) to coordinating the national statistical system and representing Spain before international statistical organizations. Its activity is fundamental for governments, companies, and households to make informed economic decisions.

Main competencies of the INE

• Preparation of official statistics at the state level
  The INE designs, collects, processes, and publishes numerous essential statistics to understand the Spanish economy and society. Among the most relevant are:
  • The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the rest of the National Accounts.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a central reference for measuring inflation.
  • The Active Population Survey (EPA), the main source on employment and unemployment.
  • The population and housing censuses and the continuous register.
  • Statistics on businesses, foreign trade, industry, services, and the public sector.
• Planning and coordination of the state statistical system
  The INE participates in the preparation of the National Statistical Plan, which sets which statistics will be produced in a given period, with what methodology, and which body is responsible. Additionally, it coordinates with ministries, other General State Administration bodies, and autonomous communities to avoid duplication and ensure information coherence.
• Relations with Eurostat and international organizations
  It is Spain’s main interlocutor with Eurostat (the EU’s statistical office) and other organizations such as the OECD, IMF, or UN in statistical matters. It must ensure that Spanish statistics are produced according to international standards, making them comparable with those of other countries.
• Censuses and large-scale operations
  The INE is responsible for major demographic, economic, and agricultural censuses, conducted periodically and providing a “high-resolution snapshot” of the country’s productive and social structure, essential for long-term policy planning.
• Guarantee of confidentiality and quality
  It has the legal obligation to protect the statistical secrecy: individual data provided by people and companies cannot be used for tax, police, or other purposes. It must also comply with codes of professional independence, impartiality, and quality, which gives credibility to the published figures.

Influence of the INE on economic decision-making

The information produced by the INE is the basis for a large part of relevant economic decisions in Spain, both public and private.

1. Economic and budgetary policy

• Data on GDP, deficit, debt, employment, and inflation are used to design and justify fiscal policy (taxes and public spending). For example, growth and employment forecasts influence the General State Budgets, the calculation of expected tax revenues, and the orientation of social or investment spending.
• Many European fiscal rules (such as those related to deficit or public debt) are monitored with data partly produced by the INE, which conditions the Government’s room for maneuver.
• The CPI is a key reference for updating pensions, public salaries, rents, and other contracts, directly affecting purchasing power and the cost of certain policies.

2. Employment, housing, and territorial cohesion policies

• The EPA and other labor market statistics allow identifying groups and territories with higher unemployment or precariousness. This guides training programs, hiring incentives, minimum wage policies, or specific measures for youth and long-term unemployed.
• Censuses and housing statistics provide information on availability, relative prices, household characteristics, and urban congestion, essential for designing housing, transport, and urban renewal plans.
• Information by autonomous communities and municipalities helps define criteria for fund distribution, infrastructure investments, and territorial cohesion policies.

3. Decisions by companies, unions, and households

• Companies use INE data on domestic demand, sectors, trade, population, or productivity to decide where to invest, how to size their workforce, or which markets to prioritize.
• Social agents (unions and business organizations) rely on statistics on inflation, productivity, and wages for collective bargaining.
• Households and financial analysts follow figures such as CPI, unemployment, or growth for decisions on savings, consumption, and investment.

4. Evaluation and transparency of public policies

• Without reliable INE statistics, it would be very difficult to evaluate whether a labor, fiscal, or educational reform has been effective. Comparing indicators before and after a measure allows adjusting or correcting policy.
• Open data publication strengthens transparency and allows universities, research centers, media, and citizens to oversee public decisions and generate alternative proposals.

In summary, the INE not only produces numbers: it generates the information infrastructure on which the design, execution, and evaluation of economic policy, as well as many private decisions, rely. The quality, timeliness, and independence of its work are therefore a structural element of the proper functioning of the Spanish economy.

The current composition of the Congress of Deputies derives from the general elections held on July 23, 2023 (23J). Based on various analyses and surveys published afterward —which take those official results as a reference— we can reconstruct with considerable precision the distribution of seats and vote percentages of the main nationwide parties.

Results of the main nationwide parties

The most consistent reference in the sources consulted is the use of the 23J result as a “starting point” to compare the evolution of the vote in subsequent surveys. These texts repeatedly cite the 2023 electoral data for the four major nationwide parties:

• People’s Party (PP): various tracking surveys indicate that in the July 2023 general elections, the PP obtained around 33.1 % of the votes and 137 seats in Congress. For example, a GESOP analysis published in Prensa Ibérica and cited by Demócrata compares its current estimates with “33.1 % and 137 seats” from 23J.
• Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE): the same electoral analysis pieces take as a base for PSOE a result of approximately 31.7 % of the votes and 121 seats. Various surveys (Sigma Dos, GESOP, Ipsos, NC Report, among others) repeatedly use “31.7 % and 121 seats” as a reference to describe PSOE’s subsequent decline or resilience compared to the 2023 general elections.
• Vox: it is consistently indicated that Vox achieved around 12.4 % of the votes and 33 seats in the 2023 general elections. Numerous polls explicitly state that Vox “obtained 12.4 % and 33 deputies in the 2023 general elections” to highlight the party’s estimated subsequent growth.
• Sumar: sources also repeatedly indicate that Sumar secured about 12.3 % of the votes and 31 seats in 23J, noting that Podemos ran integrated within its candidacy. Both GESOP and Sigma Dos and other institutes use “12.3 % and 31 deputies” as the baseline to measure the subsequent deterioration of the left-wing space relative to PSOE.

These four parties make up the bulk of the state representation and explain most of the seat distribution that determined the current legislature. In fact, many analyses today compare their projections with that “23J map” to assess how parliamentary arithmetic would change if elections were repeated.

Other parties completing the parliamentary majority

Besides PP, PSOE, Vox, and Sumar, the Congress resulting from 23J includes several territorial parties that have been key in the investiture and governance. Various Demócrata articles on the “investiture bloc” and subsequent surveys recall, for example, that:

• Junts and PNV slightly reduced their representation compared to 2019 and hover around 6 seats for Junts and 5 seats for PNV, data used as reference when polls project slight declines (“one less than in the 2023 elections” for Junts, or from five to four for PNV).
• EH Bildu and ERC maintain a relevant presence (subsequent surveys compare their possible rise or fall with 6 seats for EH Bildu and those of ERC in 2023, although the consulted pieces do not always detail their vote percentages at the state level).
• Other forces such as BNG, Coalición Canaria, or UPN complete the Congress mosaic with one or two seats each, and often appear in analyses about investiture blocs and alternative majorities.

Together, these territorial parties add the seats necessary for Pedro Sánchez’s investiture bloc to surpass the 171 deputies gathered by PP, Vox, and UPN, a figure mentioned in Demócrata analyses as the threshold the Government must exceed in each major vote.

Political reading of the result

The combination of PP as the leading force in votes and seats (33.1 % and 137 deputies) and a PSOE second but with 121 seats created a very tight block scenario. PP and Vox together reached about 170 deputies, below the absolute majority (176), which prevented Alberto Núñez Feijóo from becoming Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, the sum of PSOE, Sumar, and nationalist and pro-investiture independentist parties allowed Pedro Sánchez to renew his position, despite not being the most voted list. Much of the political debate of the legislature has since revolved around that arithmetic: surveys published in 2025 and 2026 compare their projections with the distribution from 23J to assess whether the right would now reach an absolute majority or if the progressive bloc could renew support.

In summary, the key results that defined the current composition of Congress were:

• PP: ~33.1 % of the vote and 137 seats.
• PSOE: ~31.7 % of the vote and 121 seats.
• Vox: ~12.4 % of the vote and 33 seats.
• Sumar (with Podemos integrated): ~12.3 % of the vote and 31 seats.
• Remaining seats: distributed among territorial formations (Junts, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, CC, UPN, and others), whose presence has been decisive in forming government majorities and approving laws during the legislature.