The expansion of artificial intelligence in the Spanish business fabric is beginning to draw a scenario of labor market transformation, especially among large companies, which anticipate a reduction in certain jobs as these technologies are integrated into their production processes. According to an analysis published by the Banco de España, 24% of large companies that use artificial intelligence expect to reduce employment over the next three years, compared with 18% that expect to increase their staff.
The findings come from the Banco de España Survey on Business Activity (EBAE). The study reveals that, although the adoption of these tools is advancing rapidly, their effects on employment are still limited and business expectations differ considerably depending on the size of the companies.
In fact, nearly 89% of companies that have incorporated artificial intelligence say they have not observed significant changes in employment during the last three years. The percentages of companies that report increases or reductions in staff are similar, around 6% in both cases.
Routine jobs, the most exposed
The forecasts of the Banco de España point to the labor impact of artificial intelligence possibly concentrating especially on occupations that require repetitive or routine tasks. 44% of large companies anticipate reductions in employment in this type of positions, while 83% of SMEs do not expect changes in this professional category.
The outlook is different for workers who perform functions with greater analytical content. Nearly 20% of large companies expect to increase employment in these occupations, although 15% also foresee reductions. Managerial positions, for their part, appear among the least exposed to possible staff changes, both in large companies and in small and medium-sized ones.
In the case of SMEs, the forecasts for employment are considerably more moderate. The percentages of companies that anticipate increases and reductions in workers are balanced, around 8% and 9%, respectively.
The Banco de España highlights that employment is the only variable analyzed for which, among large companies, negative expectations exceed positive ones, unlike what happens with productivity and investment.
61% of large companies expect to increase their productivity thanks to AI
Although labor forecasts reflect some concern about the substitution of tasks, Spanish companies trust that artificial intelligence will improve their economic activity over the next few years.
The 61% of large companies that use these technologies expects to increase their productivity in the next three years, a proportion that falls to 27% among SMEs. Differences also appear in investment expectations, with more favorable prospects among larger companies.
These forecasts find some support in the results that companies already report having experienced. More than a quarter of the companies that use artificial intelligence say they have observed improvements both in productivity and in investment, while only around 3% report declines in these variables.
The intensity of technology use also influences the results. Among companies that make moderate use of generative artificial intelligence, close to 40% say they have improved their productivity, compared with 14% of those that use these tools sporadically.
The organization warns, however, that these data come from the perceptions of the companies themselves and do not make it possible to precisely establish the economic impact attributable to artificial intelligence.
There is already presence
The implementation of artificial intelligence has advanced considerably in Spain during the last two years, although an important difference between large companies and SMEs persists.
According to the EBAE, around 70% of large companies were using these technologies at the beginning of 2026, while among small and medium-sized ones the proportion was between 30% and 35%, depending on the type of tool.
The use of artificial intelligence among SMEs has practically doubled since 2024, but the gap with large companies remains wide. In addition, smaller companies are usually in experimental phases, while large ones are moving toward a more habitual integration into their work processes.
In the European comparison, Eurostat data corresponding to 2025 show that 20% of Spanish companies with ten or more workers were using some artificial intelligence technology, compared with 21% of the eurozone.
Among companies with 250 or more employees, however, adoption rates were virtually identical in Spain, Germany and France, around 57% and 58%.
About large companies
The incorporation of artificial intelligence involves not only possible changes in staff, but also new qualification needs and internal reorganization.
79% of large companies plan to strengthen the training of their workers over the next three years, while 62% are considering hiring more specialized personnel. Among SMEs, these percentages fall to 35% and 17%, respectively.
Likewise, 57% of large companies expect to modify the distribution of tasks within the organization, compared with 21% of small and medium-sized enterprises.
The lack of qualified professionals continues to be the main obstacle to incorporating these technologies, mentioned by nearly half of the companies surveyed, although the Bank of Spain notes that difficulties related to implementation costs, the availability of specialized workers and legal uncertainty have decreased since 2024.