Rovi's shares have a potential of over 20% according to analyst consensus, but part of the stock thesis depends on the evolution of its contract manufacturing business. That area grew by 38% in the first half of 2026 and keeps Moderna as one of the elements to watch for the market.
Rovi's shares: how much does their potential depend on the business with Moderna
Laboratorios Rovi reaches the end of summer with two seemingly contradictory photographs.
On one hand, the consensus of nine analysts collected by S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketScreener places the average target price at 74.36 euros, compared to a closing price of 59.80 euros on Friday, August 21. This implies a theoretical upside of around 24%.
Reuters handles a different sample of analysts and places its average at 75.48 euros. The two figures are not contradictory: they come from different consensus universes.
The CDMO grows again
The main operational signal comes from the contract manufacturing business, known as CDMO.
Sales in this division increased by 38% during the first half, to 106.3 million euros, according to the results published by the pharmaceutical company itself.
It is a relevant line because Rovi has been developing capacity for years to manufacture injectable drugs for other companies, including Moderna.
The relationship with the American pharmaceutical company has given the Spanish group indirect exposure to the development of messenger RNA. The future of that technology no longer depends solely on COVID vaccines, but also on new products that Moderna is trying to bring to market.
The comparable EBITDA offers a different reading
Rovi's accounts need, however, a second reading.
The published EBITDA increased by 85%, to 121.2 million, but includes an extraordinary income of 62.4 million euros derived from a negative consolidation difference associated with Phoenix.
Excluding that impact, EBITDA stood at 58.8 million, a 10% less than a year earlier.
This contrast explains why the growth of the CDMO is not yet translating linearly into the group's comparable profitability.
Moderna attracts market attention again
Moderna has regained stock market prominence after presenting advances in its personalized cancer vaccine programs.
For Rovi, any expansion of those treatments could be relevant if it translates into greater manufacturing needs, but there is no guarantee that every clinical success of Moderna will end up becoming new income for the Spanish company.
This nuance is important. The industrial relationship provides optionality, but the value of Rovi also depends on its own pharmaceutical portfolio, the growth of Okedi, cost control, and the use of its new production capacity.
What the consensus says now
The nine analysts collected by MarketScreener place their targets between 64.20 and 83 euros, with an average of 74.36.
Four maintain a buy recommendation and five a hold. None currently appear with a sell recommendation in that sample.