The strength of the labor market in the United States would have been weaker than initially reflected by the official figures, according to the preliminary estimate of the revision prepared by the country's Bureau of Labor Statistics. This first adjustment points to a cut of 79,000 non-farm payrolls in the twelve months up to March 2026.
This preliminary downward adjustment is known after the U.S. economy destroyed 23,000 non-farm jobs in July, a figure that was well below expectations, as another month of job growth was anticipated.
At the same time, the job creation figures for the previous two months were also revised downward. Thus, the number of new jobs generated in May was reduced to 63,000, compared to the 129,000 reported initially, while the June figure was corrected to 20,000 jobs, down from the 57,000 initially calculated.
Each year, the employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) are contrasted with the detailed employment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is mainly fed by state records of unemployment insurance taxes that almost all businesses are required to submit to state employment agencies.
The preliminary benchmark revision shows the difference between two independently compiled employment counts, each with its own sources of error, and serves as a first measure of the total error in the CES employment estimates between March 2025 and March 2026.
For its part, the definitive benchmark revision will be incorporated into the official statistics with the publication, in February 2027, of the employment situation report corresponding to January 2027.